Monday Night Football Starts and Sits: Week 2 Matchup Analysis

Week 1 has come and gone and now our sights look toward week 2. This week's Monday night football game has both the Saints and Raiders as 1-0 teams with significant injuries. The Saints will be without Michael Thomas on Monday night while the Raiders offense will have a potentially limited Henry Ruggs III (knee) and no Trent Brown manning the right tackle position.

In week 1, the Saints rode an average game from Drew Brees (160 yards and two touchdowns) and Alvin Kamara (12 carries, 16 yards, and a touchdown with five receptions (eight targets) for 51 yards and an additional score) to victory of the Tom Brady led Buccaneers. Unfortunately for New Orleans, a late run play fell into Michael Thomas while he was blocking, resulting in a high ankle sprain that will cost him this week.

On the other side of things, the Raiders also had an impressive 34-30 victory on the road in Carolina. Derek Carr had an average game (239 yards and a touchdown), but Josh Jacobs stole the show. Jacobs carried the ball 25 times for 93 yards and three touchdowns. He also cau6ght four of six targets for 46 yards. The Raiders also had solid performances from Darren Waller (6 catches for 45 yards) and Henry Ruggs III (three catches for 55 yards). The loss of Michael Thomas for the Saints could open up a more natural game script, giving Jacobs an opportunity to see huge carries against the Saints front seven. Here is a look at the matchup:

New Orleans Saints at Las Vegas Raiders

Game time: Monday 9/21 @ 8:15 PM EST
Game line: New Orleans -5.5
Over/Under: 49.5

Must-Starts

Drew Brees (QB, NO)

Despite an underwhelming debut, Drew Brees remains a must-start player in this week’s tilt against the Raiders. Brees was 18 of 30 for 160 yards and two touchdowns against the Buccaneers Defense last week, completing touchdown passes to Alvin Kamara and Emmanuel Sanders in the win. The loss of Michael Thomas will have a massive impact on the passing game, but if there is one quarterback who can navigate the loss of his top passing weapon, it is Drew Brees. The Raiders have an unproven secondary and ranked in the bottom ten teams in fantasy points surrendered to wide receivers in Week 1.

Josh Jacobs (RB, LVR)

The Saints may have a strong front seven against running backs, but Josh Jacobs is a must-play weekly thanks to his high usage in the run game and uptick in passing game work in Week 1. Jacobs carried the ball 25 times for 93 yards and three touchdowns against the Panthers in the opening week. More impressively, he was targeted six times (second-most on the team) and tallied four receptions and 46 yards through the air. This development allowed him to be on the field for 78% of the team’s offensive snaps, the highest number in his career thus far. While running lanes won’t be as open this week, Jacobs' emergence as a weapon in the passing game reinforces him as a top-12 fantasy play regardless of opponent.

Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)

Despite struggling to make an impact on the ground in week 1 (12 carries, 16 yards, and a score), Alvin Kamara still found a way to be explosive in the passing game. Kamara was targeted eight times, catching five passes for 51 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' Week 1 win. There aren’t many defenses that are as good up front as the Buccaneers, forcing Kamara to work for every yard he got. The Raiders were a bottom ten defense last week against Christian McCaffrey and could find themselves there again facing off against Kamara. It will also be interesting to see if Kamara receives more targets due to the absence of Michael Thomas this week.

Henry Ruggs III (WR, LVR)

The explosive rookie out of Alabama was targeted early and often by Derek Carr against the Panthers, finishing third in targets (five), receptions (three), and leading the team in receiving yards (55). Ruggs was on a roll until a minor knee injury knocked him out of the game for a few plays. By all accounts, Ruggs will be healthy and ready to go this Monday. The Saints were strong against the pass last week (22.6 fantasy points scored) but allowed Scotty Miller to accrue five receptions and 73 yards from the slot, which is where Ruggs plays. This could be a very explosive game for the rookie.

Emmanuel Sanders (WR, NO)

With no Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders presumably slides into the WR1 role for Drew Brees and the Saints offense. Sanders tied Thomas in targets week 1 (five), catching three passes for 15 yards and a touchdown. While Sanders wasn’t brought in to be the Saints’ leading receiver, he may find himself thrust into that role for the next few weeks. The Raiders struggled against the Panthers wide receivers (29.6 fantasy points surrendered, 10th worst in Week 1), giving Sanders a chance to have a solid week with an uptick in targets.

Jared Cook (TE, NO)

Jared Cook picked up his 2020 season where his 2019 one left off. He was the second-most targeted player for the Saints in Week 1 with seven targets. Cook caught five of them for 80 yards against a tough linebacking group in Tampa Bay. The Raiders only allowed Carolina to complete three passes to the tight end position for 20 yards on Sunday, but part of that was the Panthers pushing the ball downfield to keep pace in their game. Jared Cook has established himself as the most reliable receiver downfield after Michael Thomas, so an uptick in his usage wouldn’t be surprising.

Darren Waller (TE, LVR)

On the other side, there was plenty of speculation that Darren Waller’s production would suffer from the additions to the Raiders’ receiver room in 2020, but through one week, that was simply untrue. Waller led Las Vegas in targets (eight) and receptions (six) while compiling 45 yards in the team’s Week 1 win. Waller also logged 89% of the team’s snaps and saw a 26% target share, which was a slight decrease from 2019, but still very good for a tight end. Waller will assuredly be a nice target for Derek Carr as he becomes acclimated to his new weapons. The Saints only allowed 10.7 points to the tight end position last week but gave up six receptions for 47 yards and a score against Tampa Bay.

Consider Sitting

Derek Carr (QB, LVR)

Derek Carr once again showed he is exactly what he has always been at the quarterback position: safe and methodical. Carr completed 22 of 30 passes for 239 yards and a score against a very weak Carolina secondary. In his defense, Josh Jacobs was running all over the field and punched in three scores, so Carr wasn’t required to put the team on his back. The Saints will be a much tougher test for Carr and the Raiders passing game thanks to a strong pass rush and alpha cornerback Marshon Lattimore. You likely drafted Carr to be your QB2 in fantasy this season, which is exactly where he should be this week.

Latavius Murray (RB, NO)

Latavius Murray was used as the hammer back in Week 1, leading the team with 15 carries for 48 yards against Tampa Bay. Despite these totals, Murray only saw snaps on 34% of the team’s offensive plays. He may see more work (especially if the Saints elect to use Kamara in the slot to provide Brees with another target in the passing game), but if you have a more consistent and reliable option at running back, they are worth using on Sunday. Murray has struggled to see consistent carries when Kamara has been active and Monday should be no different.

Jalen Richard (RB, LVR)

There was a ton of preseason hype about Jalen Richard as the pass-catching back to roster in Oakland. However, one week in and it seems he may just strictly be a game script dependent option. Richard (1) was out targeted by both Josh Jacobs (6) and Devontae Booker (3) and was seventh on the team in receiving yards against Carolina (15). He also logged the lowest snap percentage of any running back on the team in Week 1 (11%). If you have Richard on your roster, he was likely a late-round pick to use in negative game script games like this one could be, but until he shows he can beat out Booker for pass-catching duties, he is a drop candidate and should not be started.

Potential Sleepers

Hunter Renfrow (WR, LVR)

Hunter Renfrow had a quiet debut for the Raiders in 2020, catching both of his targets for 21 yards. Since Henry Ruggs has been working out of the slot, Renfrow was restricted to just 48% of the team’s offensive snaps, which would have been his eighth-least from last season. However, Renfrow is one of the only receivers on the offense who has established rapport with Derek Carr from last season. If the Saints race out to a lead, Renfrow could be utilized to keep the chains moving in Week 2.

Bryan Edwards (WR, LVR)

Fantasy players were undoubtedly disappointed with Bryan Edwards' usage in week 1. Edwards was targeted just once, catching the single pass for nine yards. After spending most of the offseason as a super popular late-round fantasy draft sleeper, Edwards has become a frequently dropped player. However, if you look deeper, no wide receiver played more offensive snaps than Edwards in Week 1. Ultimately, he will have more opportunities come his way, especially if there is a negative game script. It could be as early as Monday (assuming he avoids consistent coverage from Marshon Lattimore).

Tre’Quan Smith (WR, NO)

The first of two lottery tickets in the Saints wide receiver corps, Tre’Quan Smith has been identified as a “breakout player” for two straight seasons now. Smith was shockingly efficient as a rookie but took a step back in 2019 because of injuries and the addition of Jared Cook. However, with the injury to Michael Thomas, Smith finds himself in a possible role as the second receiver on the offense. Smith logged a 65% offensive snap share in Week 1 on his way to one reception for four yards. Both of those numbers will likely improve on Monday night. It is safe to stash Smith on your bench for one more week to see his role in the offense, but he could be a strong play if you’re down big heading into Monday night and are desperate to score some points.

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