Monday Night Football Starts and Sits - 49ers vs Rams

Week 9 was disappointing in fantasy but delivered a few highly entertaining games. Monday’s game between Pittsburgh and Chicago looked rough on paper but turned into a highly entertaining game. The Steelers won on a late field goal, but Chicago finally got a stellar performance for Justin Fields. The rookie was able to generate several big plays, leading to 291 passing yards and a touchdown in his most impressive performance this season. Both the Steelers' and Bears’ offenses showed up, turning a slow first half into one of the better games of the week. This week’s game will have NFC West implications and has potential for a big scoring affair as well.

The Rams come into the game after a terrible loss to the Derrick Henry-less Tennessee Titans. The Rams had two early turnovers that led to a two-score deficit and were never able to recover. Matthew Stafford had one of his worst games of the season but still finished with nearly 300 passing yards on the day. Von Miller will likely make his debut in Los Angeles after being acquired from the Denver Broncos at the trade deadline. Odell Beckham Jr., the team’s other acquisition, will likely be unable to play. The Rams still feature one of the best offenses in the NFL this season even after a bad game. Los Angeles averages the third-most passing yards (399.3 yards per game) and fifth-most points (29) in the NFL this season. Matthew Stafford has been able to sustain the top wide receiver in fantasy (Cooper Kupp) along with several ancillary skill players (Darrell Henderson, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, and Van Jefferson). a

The 49ers were poised to have a big divisional game against the depleted Cardinals’ team in Week 9. Arizona was missing both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins and lost Chase Edmonds on his first carry of the game. Despite the injuries, Colt McCoy and James Conner were able to dominate against the 49ers' defense and score 33 points, leading to an unlikely victory. San Francisco’s starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey suffered a season-ending injury, which will lead to some shuffling across the offensive line. The 49ers are averaging just 23.1 points per game thanks to a middle-of-the-road passing (252 yards per game) and rushing attack (113 yards per game). Jimmy Garoppolo has been very average this season but still has a great running back (Elijah Mitchell) and several explosive receivers (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle). They will have a difficult test against a wildly talented Rams defense this week. 

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Game time: Monday, November, 15, 8:15 p.m.

Game line: LAR -4

Game total: 49

Must Start

Matthew Stafford (QB LAR)

Matthew Stafford had a rough day by his standards against the Titans in Week 9. Stafford completed 64% of his passes for 294 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions. It was the first time since Week 6 that Stafford had less than 300 passing yards and the first time since Week 5 he failed to throw multiple touchdown passes. Stafford is as safe of a play as they come regardless of one bad performance considering he has five 300-yard passing weeks and seven games with at least two passing touchdowns. The 49ers are allowing 20.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, the third-most in the NFL this season.

Darrell Henderson (RB, LAR)

Darrell Henderson has stayed relatively healthy this season and because of that has consistently functioned as the clear lead back for the Rams. Henderson has his worst game of the season for the Rams in Week 9, carrying the ball 11 times for 55 yards while catching three of four targets for three yards. The Rams got behind early and were forced to abandon the run, leading to a subpar game from the Los Angeles backfield. Despite that, Henderson is averaging 15.1 carries per game and 70.3 rushing yards per game. Henderson has also added 19 receptions, 144 receiving yards, and seven total touchdowns on the season. The 49ers are giving up 20.1 fantasy points per game to running backs this season, so if this game stays close (or the Rams get out to a lead), then Henderson should be poised for a highly productive day on the ground.

Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF)

Elijah Mitchell was limited in practice with a rib injury last season, but still played a similar snap share (66%) to all of his other starts on the season. Mitchell had his worst performance in the run game in Week 9 (eight carries for 36 yards), but had his best day as a pass-catcher. Mitchell caught all five of his targets for 43 yards. Bad performance aside, Mitchell has been stellar this season as a late-round rookie. Mitchell has four games with at least 17 carries and three games with over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown. The Rams are allowing 17.9 points per game, but Mitchell should be healthier than last week and shouldering the majority of the backfield touches once again this week.

Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)

Cooper Kupp continues to thrive in his high-volume role in the Rams’ passing attack. Kupp caught 11 of 13 targets for 95 yards in a surprising loss to the Titans in Week 9. Kupp is now averaging 11.4 targets, 8.2 receptions, and 113.2 receiving yards through nine games this season. The Rams wideout has six games with a touchdown and four games with multiple scores. Kupp is far and away from the top wide receiver in PPR scoring this year and is averaging an absurd 26.2 fantasy points per week. He’s a must-start in all fantasy formats for this week and the foreseeable future.

Van Jefferson (WR, LAR)

Odell Beckham Jr. was signed by the Rams this week but won’t play a significant role until he gets up to speed in the Rams' offense. That leaves Van Jefferson as the WR3 again this week, a role that he has looked good in this season. The second-year receiver has 10 receptions on 20 targets for 172 yards and a touchdown in his last three games. Jefferson has been on the field for at least 84% of the team’s offensive snaps the last three games, giving him appealing upside as a WR3 or FLEX against a weak 49ers secondary. Thanks to Robert Woods' ACL injury, Jefferson will likely function as the Rams WR2 until Odell Beckham Jr. can learn the offense and build rapport with Matthew Stafford. Jefferson is now a must-start on Monday given the reshuffling to the wide receiver corps. 

Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)

Deebo Samuel has been stellar for the 49ers now that he is healthy again. Samuel has 49 receptions on 81 targets for 882 yards and four touchdowns as the 49ers' top wide receiver in 2021. The third-year receiver has at least eight targets in every game this season and four games with over 100 receiving yards. The Rams have been fantastic against wide receivers this season, allowing 21.1 fantasy points per game to the position thanks to the strong play by Jalen Ramsey. However, Ramsey doesn’t shadow opposing receivers and will likely spend time on Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, so Samuel could have a big play at any time. He’s a lineup fixture again this week.

George Kittle (TE, SF)

George Kittle played for the first time since Week 4 and had an instant impact in the passing game. Kittle caught six of eight targets for 101 yards and a touchdown despite playing in just 73% of the team’s offensive snaps. The Rams are strong on the perimeter but can be beaten in the middle of the field. The Rams are allowing 8.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, the 12th most in the NFL this season. Kittle can have a boom week and dominate targets in the 49ers passing game at any time. In his last five games against the Rams, Kittle has 48 targets, 34 receptions, 538 yards, and four touchdowns. As long as he’s active, Kittle is a must-start at the tight end position.

Consider Sitting

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)

Jimmy Garoppolo has put together great passing performances in his last two games. The 49ers signal-caller has completed 66% of his passes for 648 yards and two touchdowns with just one interception. He’s also added two rushing touchdowns in his last two games. Despite the strong passing performances in his recent games, Jimmy G. is a good fade heading into this game. The Rams are giving up just 16.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and have generated more interceptions (12) than surrendered touchdowns (10). If the 49ers are going to have a big day through the air, it will likely come through great plays after the catch than the pure passing volume from Garoppolo.

JaMycal Hasty (RB, SF)

JaMycal Hasty has played on 34% of the 49ers' offensive snaps in the last three weeks. Hasty has carved out a role for the 49ers as the pass-catching back, but typically only sees significant work in big wins or losses. In his last three games, Hasty has 12 targets, eight receptions, and 55 receiving yards. Hasty is a low-upside FLEX play that has some appeal if you believe the Rams will win by a commanding margin.

Trey Sermon/Jeff Wilson Jr./JaMycal Hasty (RB, SF)

Jeff Wilson Jr. was activated off of injured reserve and active last game but failed to record a single snap against the Cardinals in Week 9. Sermon was a healthy inactive once again. Both players shouldn’t be started until they can carve out a role in the offense regardless of their status heading into Week 9. JaMycal Hasty has been carving out a role in the passing attack, but had two consecutive DNP's this week and likely won't play on Monday. If you are desperate for a starter this week, the best bet would be Jeff Wilson Jr. getting some work in the passing game, but none of these three players can be trusted.

Robert Woods (WR, LAR)

UPDATE: Robert Woods tore his ACL on Friday and is out for the season.

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, LAR)

OBJ will likely make his debut with the Rams on Monday and may see more work than initially expected thanks to the Robert Woods injury on Friday. Even with that, it is going to be very difficult to rely on Beckham Jr. in his first game with the Rams. There will likely be a specific set of plays for him to run until he can get a full week of practice and get up to speed in Los Angeles. While the Woods injury opens up opportunities, it is likely that Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee pick up the slack in the short term with Odell factoring in during future weeks. Odell is a risky WR3 or FLEX play until he gets acclimated to his new teammates and playbook.

Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)

Tyler Higbee is getting a solid snap share on offense and is prone to big games in the passing attack, but he is just too inconsistent operating as the fourth passing target in the Rams’ offense. Higbee caught five of 10 targets for 51 yards last week, which was his most productive fantasy performance since Week 3. Higbee has at least five targets in six games this season but has only surpassed 50 receiving yards twice this year. The 49ers are allowing just 5.9 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, the ninth-best in the NFL.

Potential Sleepers

Sony Michel (RB, LAR)

Sony Michel has struggled to carve out a consistent role for the Rams this season but has played at least 30% of the offensive snaps in the last two weeks. Michel has 16 carries for 62 yards and four receptions on five targets for 20 yards in the Rams’ last two games. Michel has a limited ceiling but could have a big role in a blowout game or if Henderson gets hurt. The Rams’ lead back has a lengthy injury history, making Michel a FLEX play this week.

Van Jefferson (WR, LAR)

Odell Beckham Jr. was signed by the Rams this week but won’t play a significant role until he gets up to speed in the Rams' offense. That leaves Van Jefferson as the WR3 again this week, a role that he has looked good in this season. The second-year receiver has 10 receptions on 20 targets for 172 yards and a touchdown in his last three games. Jefferson has been on the field for at least 84% of the team’s offensive snaps the last three games, giving him appealing upside as a WR3 or FLEX against a weak 49ers secondary.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)

Brandon Aiyuk had an incredibly frustrating start to the 2021 season, struggling to see the field for the 49ers early on. Eventually, Aiyuk started to get more action on offense but wasn’t being utilized in the team’s game plan. In the past two weeks, things have started to shift. In Weeks 8 and 9, Aiyuk was targeted 15 times, catching 10 passes for 134 yards and a touchdown. Aiyuk is starting to gain the trust of the coaching staff once again and is being rewarded with targets. Given how his season started, he is still a risky play and can be phased out of the game plan at any time. But given the big-play ability he flashed as a rookie (and in recent weeks), he is a worthy WR3 or FLEX play in Week 10.

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