RADIO
New England Patriots
First four matchups: PITT, @BUF, JAC, BYE, @ DAL
Based on last year's numbers, the Patriots' 2015 defense will have at least five matchups against tough rushing attacks: the New York Jets twice, the Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. Having Shady McCoy be part of the rival Bills' won't make things easier either.
Unlike some of the D/ST units that can score a ton one week and then be in the red the next week, the Patriots will be remarkably consistent. They finished ninth in the league in rushing yards allowed in 2014, giving up 1,669 yards and only six rushing scores. This ability to keep halfbacks out of the endzone would end up winning the Pats a Super Bowl, as it likely was what made Pete Carroll elect to throw the ball rather than let Marshawn Lynch try to pound it in. It wasn't just stopping short runs either, as the Patriots allowed only two runs of 20 yards all season long. That was good for the best in the league.
Even though they lost their best run defender in Vince Wilfork, first-round draft pick Malcolm Brown has the talent to fill that void. They also still have holdovers in linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower who are among the Patriots' best defenders, and are both adept at run defense.
If defensive end Chandler Jones and middle linebacker Jerod Mayo can come back strong from the injuries they were dealing with, the pass rush will get a nice boost for the Pats. This will only help a pass defense was just around league average in passing yards allowed last season. The scary part is that that was even with Revis on the roster.
Despite their questionable secondary, they will get strong play from their front seven, and Belichick will find a way to maximize the talent on defense. I expect them to be a good fantasy option that may not put up a ton of points, but they won't hurt you either.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read about more fantasy football defense rankings & analysis, all in one easy place. You can also click here and find more defense sleepers and undervalued defenses that can return big time draft value based on their current ADPs.
Minnesota Vikings
First four matchups: @SF, DET, SD, @DEN
In 2015 the Vikings defense will face nine teams with below par running games. They have two tough matchups on the ground against the Niners and Seahawks. They however are in a division that has the Packers and Lions passing attacks, and they also have matchups against the Falcons, Broncos and Giants. So there could be some lean weeks for this unit, but that being said they also have potential to be a top-10 D/ST.
The Vikings finished 25th in the NFL in rushing yards, and only allowed six run of 20 yards or more; tied for the second-fewest in the league.
The defensive line will look to build on last season's success. DT Sharrif Floyd was the Vikings' best run defender, but was far from a one-trick pony with five sacks, five QB hits, and 20 QB hurries. He showed major growth after not being very effective in his rookie season. DE Everson Griffin was relentless in the pass rush, accumulating 11 sacks, 13 sacks, and 40 QB hurries, and was also useful against the run. DT Linval Joseph and DE Brian Robison are not as strong, but have shown the ability to create pressure in the past. Robison is probably the weakest on the line when it comes to the running game but can still be a major asset if he's as disruptive in the pass as he was in 2013.
The linebackers are formidable as well. Anthony Barr did well in run support during his rookie season and he racked up four sacks, five QB hits and 11 QB hurries in 12 games. Eric Kendricks is expected to start after being drafted in the second round of this year's draft. He is expected to be an improvement in the run defense with his pass coverage skills. Chad Greenway is the worst of the bunch as he's a liability in the run and won't put anymore pressure on the QB than gravity does. Gerald Hodges is probably next in line to cut into Greenway's playing should he continue to be a weak link. Hodges he won't be much of an upgrade in terms of rushing the QB, but he is solid in run and pass defense.
CB Xavier Rhodes showed tremendous growth in pass coverage and safety Harrison Smith finished as the second best safety in the league in 2014 according to advanced metrics. Safety Robert Blanton is effective in run support and solid against the pass. Rookie Trae Waynes will likely get the other CB spot but veterans Terence Newman and Captain Munnerlyn are lurking as well. Waynes brings much more speed to the table though than the other two.
The right side of the D-line looks great, and they've added as much talent as possible in pass coverage during the offseason. Minnesota's defensive success will hinge on the left side of the defensive line and on how the linebackers play. This D/ST gets some added value for its talented kick returners, so don't sleep on these guys as they have top-ten potential.
Green Bay Packers:
First four matchups: @CHI, SEA, KC, @SF
The Packers' defense was a bit porous last season, particularly against the run. They allowed the 10th-most rushing yards last year (1,919) and 11 rushing TDs. Opposing tailbacks averaged 4.3 YPC. They compensated for this by having the ninth-most sacks (41) and giving up the 10th-fewest passing yards (3,623). Despite allowing 26 passing TDs, they were also very opportunistic by snatching 18 INTs.
They are going to need to be opportunistic this season as well as they don't exactly have the strongest front seven out there. DE Josh Boyd underwhelming in the run game, and a non-factor in the passing game. Boyd and Datone Jones will battle it out for a starting job. Jones may have the inside track after demonstrating some value as a pass rusher with limited playing time in 2014. B.J. Raji is recovering from a torn right biceps that cost him the entire 2014 season, but was awful against the run in 2013. Mike Daniels (the Packers' best D-lineman last season) will have to carry a lot of the load as he was excellent at stopping the run, while still recording seven sacks, 11 QB hits and 11 QB hurries.
The main criticism of the linebackers is that Julius Peppers is now 34. He had a very nice resurgence last year though. He was an average player against the run but was very good at pressuring the QB in 2014. Clay Matthews is somewhat of liability vs. the run, but he had 11 sacks last season to make up for it. Nick Perry hasn't really panned out the way the Packers had hoped. Carl Bradford could be a factor after not playing in his rookie season. He's a converted defensive end, and is a good tackler with some speed to add.
As for the secondary, CB Sam Shields has seen his performance drop over the last two years after playing at a high level in 2012. CB Casey Hayward will likely replace Tramon Williams, and has been a very strong cover corner during his first three years in the league. He's not too shabby at defending the run either. Add that to Safety Morgan Burnett who is coming off his best season against the run, and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and you have a pretty solid group.
Expect some pick-sixes and takeaways, plus some return game scores. The fact that the dynamic offense will put the Packers ahead in a lot of games will only help this unit's numbers.
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