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Nate Lowe has been FREED!!!!!
The Tampa Bay Rays have traded their talented slugging first baseman as well as first baseman Jake Guenther to the Texas Rangers for catcher Heriberto Hernandez, infielder Osleivis Basabe, and outfielder Alexander Ovalles. This is the moment many fantasy baseball players have been waiting for, the chance for Nate Lowe to play every day.
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The Excitement Has Been Building
Since 2018, Lowe has been climbing prospect rankings. In 2018, he played at three minor league levels (High A/AA/AAA) and put up a combined stat line of .330-27-102-93-1. With that excellent stat line came a .576 SLG as well as a .242 ISO. His plate discipline was outstanding, with a 12.3% walk rate and a 16.2% strikeout rate. Lowe was impressive in 2018, and that began the chants of FREE NATE LOWE across the fantasy baseball landscape.
When it came to the Rays and finding regular playing time for Lowe, it was difficult as the Rays are among the best at platooning players in baseball. With Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz, and others playing first base, there was not much room left for Lowe. He played from time to time when injuries were allowed, but not enough to take over a regular job at first.
Since the Rays could not play Lowe full time, they did the next best thing and traded him for prospects to strengthen other areas of their farm system. The trade works well for both teams as the Rays receive some excellent prospects while the Rangers get a much-needed starting first baseman. Now that the deal is complete let’s look at what we should expect from Nate Lowe, playing every day in 2021.
Changes Needed to Breakout
Lowe joining the Rangers is going to be outstanding for his fantasy production. Lowe is a player with a career minor league average of .304 with 54 home runs, a .400 OBP, .185 ISO, and an 18.4% strikeout rate. Lowe accomplished those numbers in 405 minor league games, with most of the power coming in the final 223 games. These solid offensive numbers have yet to fully crossover in the bigs as Lowe is only hitting .251 with 11 home runs, a .209 ISO, and a crazy 36.8% strikeout rate. His early production in the Majors has not lived up to the hype, but there's no need to panic as Lowe is only 25 years old and now has a great place to call home.
When digging into Lowe’s issues from the minors to the major leagues, his overall contact and swing and miss stand out in a big way. In 2020 Lowe’s zone-contact rate was 73.3% (league average 82.8%), and chase contact was 62.1% (league average 59.4%). The contact rates are lower than desired, but his swing rates are also below average, questioning his patience at the plate. Is he like Cavan Biggio? Does he take too many pitches, which limits his overall production? The poor contact quality and the potentially cautious approach at the plate led to a 36.8% strikeout rate with an 11.8% walk rate.
Let’s speculate more. Lowe’s strikeout rate was 36.8% in 2020 and 29.6% in 2019 after having strikeout rates in the minors that were usually between 15-20%. Lowe’s most significant struggles in this department came versus left-handed pitching. In 2020 he struck out 70.6% of the time versus LHP, but only in 15 at-bats. He also only hit .133 with a .000 ISO and 14 wRC+ versus LHP. He was dreadful versus LHP. Does that mean he can’t hit lefties? Not at all.
The Rays were breaking the Cardinal Rule that so many other teams break by not allowing left-handed hitters to face left-handed pitching regularly before determining a player cannot hit them. The Rays were not allowing Lowe to hit often versus lefties even though he was successful versus LHP in the minors. During 2019 in AAA, Lowe hit .284 with a .130 ISO, 21.3% walk rate, and a 19.3% strikeout rate versus LHP. One can look back at all his minor league splits and see the success had versus LHP, so I would not panic about that until the major league sample size gets larger.
Sure Lowe was striking out a lot and could not hit lefties in his short major league sample, but another significant thing needs to change: his ground ball rate. In 2019 he had a groundball rate of 41.3%, which rose to 46.2% in 2020. Over that same time frame, his fly ball rate went from 22.1% to 15.4%. That is detrimental as he hits the ball so hard, and when he elevates the ball, the results are phenomenal. Lowe has had a hard-hit rate of at least 43.6% in his two major league seasons, with a max exit velocity of at least 114 mph and barrel rates of 10.6% and 15.4%. His average EV on fly balls has been at least 92 mph, and he carries an HR/FB rate of 30% or higher. Lowe hits the ball so hard but does not elevate it enough. A minor tweak at the plate could lead to a monster home run season.
Lastly, Lowe needs to work on hitting the fastball (four-seam fastball). In 2020 Lowe had a 60% strikeout rate versus fastballs. When he put the ball in play, it was not much better as he only had a .154 average, .115 ISO, and a .256 xwOBA. These numbers are not acceptable when the fastball should be one of the most straightforward pitches to hit. One stumbling block could be the fact Lowe is not aggressive enough. He is only swinging at 34.4% of fastballs with a horrible 20.6% contact rate. My idea of aggressiveness makes more sense when Lowe has an SwStr% of 16.8% versus fastballs with a 28.2% CallStr%., for a 45% CSW. If Lowe can improve on hitting fastballs, his results will be significant because he has a 50% hard-hit rate, 25% barrel rate, and a 54.5% fly-ball rate versus the fastball. More contact on the fastball will result in the strikeouts dropping, and the offensive production will climb.
What to Expect in 2021
After reading the last few paragraphs, one may think of doom and gloom, but this is not the case. Lowe is only 25 and has a lot of pedigree to build off. Every day at-bats, the comfort of knowing his name is in the lineup each time he comes to the ballpark should do wonder for his overall stat line. The issues discussed previously are fixes that can be made with a little hard work and the right environment.
Lowe will be moving from the fifth-worst (27 overall) offensive ballpark in baseball to the 13 ranked park for the 2020 season. The new Globe Life Park was close to a neutral ballpark, which is still a nice upgrade for Lowe. The ballpark will not be the only thing that changes for the positive as he will also receive regular playing time. Roster Resource has Lowe projected to hit sixth for the Rangers, but there is a lot of chance to advance in the lineup as there are a lot of question marks projected to hit ahead of him.
The improved ballpark and locked in at-bats, likely in the middle of the Rangers’ lineup, should result in an excellent fantasy line. Lowe should be in line for a .280+ average with 25+ home runs and solid counting stats. Steamer currently projects Lowe for .260-24-64-68-2, which is lower than I would expect. His ADP is sure to skyrocket in upcoming drafts and, by the end of the draft season, should land in the 14-17 range among the first baseman. Feel free to jump on the Nate Lowe train as he has been FREED from Tampa Bay!!!!!
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