RADIO
Wednesday’s 10-game slate is anchored by six inter-conference matchups, with eight teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Generally, it’s much easier to simply avoid teams that are playing multiple games over the span of just a few days, but ignoring context like that will likely only hurt your betting and ultimately your wallet.
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the most surprising teams over the last week or so, keeping multiple games against contending opponents competitive, all without their top players. With teams like the Sacramento Kings only scoring 30 points throughout an entire half of basketball, what the Pacers have done, with so few options, is remarkable.
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CHA @ IND
Caris LeVert (IND) MORE 21.5 Points – Miles Bridges (CHA) MORE 19.5 Points
Since Indiana won’t have most of their starters available again, Caris LeVert ultimately has no choice but to run the offense and eventually make shots. He’s yet to score under 15 points in any game since December 8th, and his usage rate has remained consistent at around 30%. Obviously, when other Pacers return to the lineup it’s going to impact LeVert’s scoring, but right now, he’s the only Pacer that has proven he can put up points consistently against any defense.
It also doesn’t hurt that both of these players are either in the middle, or tail-end of a hot-streak. With both Miles Bridges and LeVert scoring at least 20 points in seven of their last ten games, the only worry here is whether or not Gordon Hayward’s return will keep Bridges from scoring 20 points against a dilapidated Indiana frontcourt. Despite the praise given to the Pacers, they are still 2-2 over their last four games, one of those losses coming at the hands of a Brandon Ingram-less Pelicans team, it’s easy to see plenty of Hornets players boosting their stats tonight.
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NYK @ MIA
Tyler Herro (NYK) UNDER 19.5 Points – R.J. Barrett (NYK) UNDER 19.5 Points
R.J. Barrett has been posting incredible stat lines recently, but he hasn’t really been facing tough defenses and his role in the offense seems to be more of a bail-out than reliable playmaker that helps his teammates. He rarely passes unless he’s getting an assist, but this type of selfish play can work in our favor. Maybe not tonight for this exact wager, because there is no amount of money worth putting on Barrett scoring points consistently, especially against the Heat defense with Bam Adebayo.
The same goes for Tyler Herro. These teams have solid defenses that don’t let up points easily and force opponents to make shots, not to mention this would be his first game back, for Herro, after missing the last three contests. It’s not that these players aren’t capable of hitting 20 points tonight, it’s just the overall matchup between the Knicks and Heat. There is a great chance no player scores 20 points and this is a low-scoring affair, or both defenses force production to come from places other than Barrett and Herro, each team's go-to “just do whatever because we’re stagnant” guy.
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DEN @ BKN
James Harden (BKN) MORE 27.5 Points – Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 27.5 Points
It isn’t all that unfortunate that Kyrie Irving won’t be playing, because this makes any over bet on James Harden almost a guarantee. However, the Nets do suffer and competitive basketball is more interesting than staring at numbers under any circumstance, so it is a slight shame that we don’t get to see two guards face a defensively-incompetent backcourt all the while the current best player in the league faces a young, inexperienced frontcourt. This has the makings for two of the NBA’s top players to showcase their abilities against virtually no resistance.
Harden would normally be the bigger risk here, but no Irving means there are literally no other options on the Nets. Nikola Jokic on the other hand, has all his usual weapons at his disposal. A straw, some napkins for spitballs, and one of those sticky hand things you buy for 25₵ outside a Walmart. Jokic hasn’t been scoring like he was earlier in the season, but basing it off his opportunities lately, he’s still creating just as much offense, he’s just not scoring as often…Which is wild because we’re talking about nearly 25-points a night as a downtrend.
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PHX @ UTA
Devin Booker (PHX) MORE 28.5 Points – Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA) MORE 19.5 Points
Devin Booker’s 11-points on 23 shots versus the Pacers was the perfect precursor to his 33-point night against the Jazz. When great players have off nights, they respond, and although this wouldn’t be considered the rebound game, you can assume that playing the same team consecutively only works in his favor. Not only will Booker have the confidence to go out, and at the very least, attempt what he did to Utah’s defense last time, but now he knows they physically can’t guard him if he can just create an inch of space. Booker might not be targeting 30-points as a marker, but it sure seems that way and he’s on pace to break records if he specifically keeps putting up points.
With no Donovan Mitchell or Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic becomes not just the first look for the Jazz playmakers, but Bogdanovic becomes a post-playmaker himself. He’s normally a stationary shooter that does his work from the wing, but when the Jazz don’t have a solidified frontcourt, Bogdanovic goes from wing shooter to post playmaker. It doesn’t always work out, but it gives more chances to someone who has proved on multiple occasions that they can score with some of the best players in the league. 20-points only seems toohigh if the Jazz are healthy.
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