RADIO
Eight games on this wonderful Sunday starting with two, inter-conference games carrying significant playoff implications. The new-look 76ers and Knicks kick everything off with a 1:00PM EST start, followed by the Jazz versus a Chris Paul-less Suns team. After the All-Star break, consistency and the NBA don’t really see eye-to-eye, so expect a lot these prop bets to be perpetually changing.
Teams are shifting their focus to playoff pushes and seeding, or developing young players and playing for next season, also known as tanking. In most of these cases, this means allowing young players to make mistakes and giving unknown players a deserving shot to gauge their teams depth, so certain players are going to seemingly rest for no reason. It’s just part of the strategy.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com is always ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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PHI @ NYK
Joel Embiid (PHI) MORE 31.5 Points – R.J. Barrett (NYK) MORE 22.5 Points
Joel Embiid has added another weapon to his arsenal and if you’re still on the train of thought that assumes two extremely talented basketball players can’t share the court together, please take the time to, at the very least, watch the two conquer Madison Square Garden tonight. Philadelphia needed that support and if anything, the double-team that was inherent to guarding Embiid late in the game this season won’t have the same impact with Harden available to knock down outside shots consistently.
It’s great when R.J. Barrett gets on these types of scoring runs, because not only do the Knicks benefit, but unless there is a strong frontcourt ready to protect the rim at all costs, even the best defenders struggle to keep him off the free throw line. Embiid himself has been a menace on both sides of the floor, but the 76ers frontcourt, in general, hasn’t been too terrifying when it comes to betting on guards that finish around the rim. The only worry is that Barrett will be stuck guarding Harden all game. Luckily, for everything Barrett receives on defense, he tends to recoil and dish back out on the other end of the court.
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UTA @ PHX
Devin Booker (PHX) MORE 27.5 Points – Donovan Mitchell (UTA) MORE 26.5 Points
Without Chris Paul, there is no safer bet than Devin Booker’s point total. Booker tends to have his nights where he’s the playmaker and forgets to take his shots, but with the Suns struggling as bad as they are, he has no choice but to shoot his team in and out of games. We know it. He knows it. The Suns know it. Even other teams know it, and a loss to the Pelicans after a close game to the Thunder should be enough proof for Booker to understand that he needs to score 30 points every game that Chris Paul doesn’t play. It comes down to how well he shoots on that particular night, but until this point total hit’s 30.5, the over seems more than doable tonight.
The same goes for Donovan Mitchell, except he’s playing with a healthy team and one, if not, the best defender in basketball. With both defenses proving themselves against countless teams this season, the offense is what matters in a matchup like this. The Suns defense isn’t nearly as intimidating without Paul, so the biggest concern about this game is how long it will stay close. Regardless, Booker and Mitchell are primed to have big nights and will have the ball in their hands more than it's not.
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BOS @ IND
Jayson Tatum (BOS) MORE 27.5 Points – Buddy Hield (IND) MORE 17.5 Points
If there was a way to take a joint point total for both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum each night, it’d be much easier than just choosing one and hoping he hits the over. Both players are going to score, their consistency over the past five games has been immaculate, but it doesn’t mean one is going to score 30 each night. It just means both scored enough to win the game, an unfortunate fact for bettors. Tatum, by all means, has the better upside on most nights, but the Pacers showcase some undersized guards and some surprising physicality when it comes to their frontcourt. No one is stopping Tatum at the rim tonight, and anyone daring to meet him there is bold, but Brown might just have the better matchup tonight going against smaller guards. Either way, against a bad team, there’s reason to see why both are equally good for a 30-point game.
Even with a new change of scenery, it’s the same Buddy Hield. His shot attempts are steadily increasing the longer the Pacers realize they have no one else to shoot, but the consistency still has Sacramento Kings written all over it. Hield’s upside was usually dependent on his minutes and him getting open or taking shots was never an issue. Until something significantly changes, Hield is going to be taking nearly 20 attempts a game and it’s quite difficult to bet the under on a points total when you know he’ll be taking more attempts than points he needs to score.
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NOP @ LAL
LeBron James (LAL) MORE 27.5 Points – C.J. McCollum (NOP) MORE 24.5 Points
When LeBron James has fewer options, extra effort goes into getting those options involved. Playing without Anthony Davis is an entirely different matter and the Lakers are going to lose games where James doesn’t carry a majority of the scoring on his shoulders one way or another. He’s not getting the help he needs and after a point, passing to teammates like Talen Horton-Tucker to miss shot after shot needs to be stopped. Realizing a contested shot is better than a jump shot from someone who hasn’t put in the work is part of what has made DeMar DeRozan so good this year and James has to be a game away from assuming the same mindset. Especially after how last game ended.
C.J. McCollum joined the Pelicans to open arms and Brandon Ingram might be the most grateful person in New Orleans because of the trade. Jonas Valanciunas wasn’t putting up the same numbers and teams were starting to figure out how to make Ingram uncomfortable on offense. McCollum has erased every teams previous game plan of the Pelicans and turned it into how do we stop McCollum from opening up Ingram and Valanciunas’ style of play? A 24.5 point total does seem high, but the Lakers backcourt defense hasn’t shown enough effort on that end to assume McCollum can’t hit 30 again tonight.
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