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March Madness is officially here, so let's fill out some winning brackets! RotoBaller will be bringing you a full breakdown on each tournament region, including some potential sleepers and busts. Today we'll be taking a look at the South Region and my bracket picks.
I'm here to tell you some teams that I believe in to help you make the right tournament bracket decisions. Below I analyze the top four seeds, a potential bust, and a potential Final Four candidate. Hopefully, my college basketball predictions can help you win your March Madness pools. I really like to use Ken Pomeroy's advanced analytics to help determine a champion. Since 2002, each team to win the title except for one was ranked top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. I'll be putting those numbers in parentheses after each breakdown of the top-four seeds. Now let's get to it.
Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts and guides on how to fill out your bracket including other predictions for the East, Midwest, and West regions.
South Region Top Four Seeds
Top four seeds: No. 1 Arizona | N0. 2 Villanova | No. 3 Tennessee | No. 4 Illinois
Arizona has had a quietly great season. There are not many holes with this team except a lack of experience on the roster with a rookie coach. (Ken Pom: #5 offense, #20 defense)
Villanova is like a professional team. They don't take bad shots, play good defense, make the extra pass, etc. They're led by two-time Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie who can do it all. This is a seasoned team who will be a very very tough out. (Ken Pom: #8 offense, #28 defense)
Tennessee should be a No. 2 seed. They beat Kentucky en route to an SEC Tournament title. They're one of the best defensive teams in the country, but their coach is Rick Barnes and he always finds himself out of the NCAA Tournament with an early loss. His tournament record is 24-24. (Ken Pom: #36 offense, #3 defense)
Illinois was getting a lot of love ahead of the Big Ten Tournament but an early exit quieted the support. Kofi Cockburn is their go-to player, but will someone else step up? (Ken Pom: #23 offense, #30 defense)
Most Intriguing First Round Matchup
No. 5 Houston vs. No. 12 UAB
UAB will be an extremely popular No. 12 seed, but this line opened with the Cougars as an eight-point favorite. Houston's starting five is made up of four seniors. UAB will give them a game, but Houston's tenacity on defense will be the difference-maker. Kenpom has Houston as the 10th-best offense and 11th-best defense. They'll go to the Sweet 16 and give Arizona a big game there.
Bust of the Region
Illinois. The Illini will have a difficult path with a first-round matchup against Chattanooga, but I don't see them getting by Houston. A very interesting gambling nugget with Illinois and Houston; the Illini are 10-1 to win the region while Houston is 5-1. Illinois is the higher seed but clearly Vegas believes Houston has a much better chance.
Final Four Pick
Houston. Like I said above, they have a starting lineup of upperclassmen, play great defense, and are a pretty good shooting team. You need to go contrarian to win your pool. They should beat UAB and then Illinois or Chattanooga. The Sweet 16 will likely be against Arizona. Nearly everyone will have Arizona penciled into at least the Elite Eight. Houston is the perfect alternate play and the more experienced team.
More March Madness Analysis
