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We have had an exciting first weekend of the NCAA tournament! We have a double-digit seed matchup between Miami and Iowa State, ensuring a double-digit seed with making the Elite Eight this year. St. Peter's continued their Cinderella run, defeating a tough Murray State team, while Michigan beat Tennessee, continuing Rick Barnes' struggles in the NCAA tournament. Other top seeds such as Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kansas were put to the test in their most recent games to remain the favorites to win the championship this year. It truly has been an unpredictable and fun (if one of your teams wasn't upset early) tournament this year!
Similar to the first round and second round I am going to share my top betting picks for each subsequent round of the NCAA Tournament here at RotoBaller, and am excited to share my thoughts with you! Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your brackets.
This article highlights my top college basketball betting picks for the Sweet 16 (Thursday and Friday, March 24 and 25, 2022). I will be posting a spreadsheet with all of my bets for the NCAA tournament. You can follow all of my picks, including live picks, on my Twitter @Mark_Kieffer. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time and reference the odds at Caesars Sportsbook. You can access all of our latest sports betting promos, and sign up for Caesars Sportsbook here.
#11 Michigan vs. #2 Villanova
Thursday 7:29 PM
Last round, I liked Villanova to cover their 5.5 points over Ohio State and they did. I am interested in a similar bet this round on Villanova. As it sits at Caesar's right now, Villanova is favored by five points and the game has a total of 135.0 points. On the Moneyline, Villanova is (-210) while Michigan is +175.
Villanova is No. 8 in offensive efficiency and No. 30 in defensive efficiency. Michigan is No. 19 in offensive efficiency and No. 77 in defensive efficiency. There is more upside in the offensive side of the game than the defensive side of the game. To me, the difference in this game is free-throw shooting. Michigan is a pretty good free-throw shooting team at 75.2% (No. 61) while Villanova is No. 1 in the country at 82.6%. In the event Villanova is up by three or four points late in the game, I can see them extending their lead at the free-throw line.
Additionally, I think Villanova is a much more balanced team than Michigan. In the long run, balanced teams do better in the tournament and this is the time when the cream starts to rise to the top. If the likes of Eric Dixon, Brandon Slater, and Jermaine Samuels can slow down Hunter Dickinson at Michigan, Villanova could be up by seven to eight points late in the game.
My best bet for this game is Villanova to cover the five points. They could either pull away with a larger than five-point lead getting into the second half, or they could transform a two or three-point lead into five or more points if they are ahead late and put on the free-throw line.
Pick: Villanova (-5.0, -110)
#3 Texas Tech vs. #2 Duke
Thursday 9:39 PM
This is the weird bracket where all of the top four seeds are what remain. Texas Tech is trying to get back to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2019 (which is really two tournaments ago since there wasn't one in 2020), while Duke is "trying to win the tournament for Coach K".
At Caesar's Texas Tech is favored by one point and the game total is set at 136.5. On the Moneyline, Texas Tech is (-120) while Duke is +100. These teams are somewhat opposite. Texas Tech is great on defense (No. 1 in defensive efficiency in the country), and inconsistent on offense (No. 46). Duke is great on offense (No. 4 in offensive efficiency in the country) and inconsistent on defense (No. 42).
Which is going to win out: the great offense or the great defense?
The answer to that question is too difficult for me. Instead, I am eyeing the first half total which is set to 64 points. Duke has not faced a defense this season quite like Texas Tech's. Given this game is at a new site, there is increased pressure on Duke to "win for Coach K", I could see both teams starting out slow in the first half with more of a feeling-out process. Because of this, I like the first half under here.
Pick: 1st Half Under 64.0 (-110)
#4 Providence vs. #1 Kansas
Friday 7:29 pm
On Friday, the Providence Friars meet the Kansas Jayhawks in Chicago. The narrative around Providence is that they were overseeded and on sites like KenPom, Providence was N0. 1 in his luck rating, indicating the team won more games than expected this season. When doing brackets, people thought they might lose to South Dakota State in the first round. It was also thought that if Iowa got into the second round, they would beat Providence too. Instead, Providence draws an easier matchup in Richmond and here they are, going against a team with the third-best odds to win it all right now.
I don't have any deep analytical truths to tell you other than I think the lines for this game are very reasonable. Kansas is favored by 7.5 points, the total is set at 141.5 points, and the Moneyline is Kansas (-360) and Providence +285. Kansas is No. 6 in offensive efficiency and No. 26 in defensive efficiency. Providence is No. 32 and No. 58 respectively. The closest ratings-wise in the Big 12 to Providence is Oklahoma and Kansas beat Oklahoma by just three points and two points in the two games they played against each other.
Ignoring the analytics, Providence is aware that the world doesn't think they belong and they have been better than expected thus far. Kansas is not great at covering, they are focused on surviving and advancing. That game against Creighton should have been a blowout and instead, Creighton was down by just one point with under one minute left. Providence is good enough to hang around, and I like taking the points here.
Pick: Providence +7.5 (-110)
#11 Iowa State vs. #10 Miami
Friday 9:59 pm
This is a matchup that nobody expected to see, including me an Iowa State alum and fan! These teams are opposites of each other. Iowa State is No. 156 in offensive efficiency and No. 5 in defensive efficiency. Miami is No. 18 in offensive efficiency and No. 123 in defensive efficiency.
The line at Caesar's has Miami favored by 1.5 points with a total set to 133.5. The Moneyline has Miami (-125) and Iowa State at +105. This is too tough of a matchup to handicap for me. Iowa State plays good defense. Miami has shot well from the two-point line (57% against Auburn and 55% against USC) while shooting horribly from the three-point line this tournament (14%). Either team could win this game.
Instead, I am looking at the totals. Iowa State plays at a slower than average tempo (No. 238) while Miami plays at an average tempo (No. 146). Iowa State has shot poorly, in general, this tournament (36% against LSU and 34% against Wisconsin). While Miami has the ability to score 60-70 points, Iowa State is playing at a tempo in which they will be unable to match that total unless there is overtime. Iowa State is not an efficient offense, their scoring has to come from turnovers (they are No. 4 in forcing turnovers) but Miami doesn't turn it over frequently (No. 6 in not turning over the ball).
This game plays out similar to LSU and Wisconsin pace-wise in my opinion. Iowa State is trying to grind out wins and it is working for them. As long as they do not give up a big lead early, I see them playing the game out like that. For those reasons, I like grabbing under the game total here.
Pick: Under 133.5 (-110)
Thanks for reading, bet smart, and enjoy the Sweet 16! I will write an update for the Elite Eight on Friday night, so be sure to check back. Good luck RotoBallers!
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