RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target ~40s
CURRENT ADP: ~86 overall
ANALYSIS:
Many people let Nelson Cruz fall in drafts because he can only slot into the UTIL spot, but you can make DH-only work when it’s Cruz. His Statcast profile is painted red from wall to wall, with 99th percentile exit velocity and the best xSLG of all coming in 2019. His legs may be lumbery, but his xBA was .296 in ‘19, and Minnesota sports an even better lineup for 2020, which means more opportunities for RBI.
There’s understandable trepidation given Cruz’s age and his missing time last season, yet those 120 games still yielded an incredible 41 homers, 189 R+RBI, and a .311 average. That would be beautiful over 150 games, but 120?! The projections have baked in an IL stint and some potential ball dejuicing, but Cruz is worth the utility-only strategizing.
If we look at the top entry in the HR cohort of Rotoballer's Expected Draft Value (rbEDV), you’ll see a .284-33-91-98-8 line at the 35th pick. The average aligns well, Cruz stands to beat the counting stats on Minnesota, and if you roll the 33 HR and 8 SB together then the 42 HR+SB hold water. We can split hairs, but there’s a realistic top-40 case for Cruz and you’re getting him three rounds later.
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