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You won't believe it, but you weren't dreaming. That turkey you stuffed your face with a few days ago? Real. Your weekly meeting with football on the telly this past Sunday? Also real. All of that together only meant one thing: the fantasy football regular season is almost over, and with just one more week of games ahead before most leagues enter their playoffs stage, it's time to gear up for that deep postseason run toward the championship.
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 12 - The State Of The Passing Game
One of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players are Air Yards. The metrics around it are key to know who is really over-performing or under-performing among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with quarterback-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
As we'll be discussing quarterbacks and their passing stats, I will reduce the fantasy points per game averages to just those related to passing. That means that I have removed the rushing/receiving fantasy points the qualifying quarterbacks have logged during the season. I've called this metric paFP/G, which is to say passing Fantasy Points per Game.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 90 pass attempts.
Time to Throw
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points: 6%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- When it comes to explaining fantasy points, there are few less predictive metrics than Time to Throw. The relationship has gone up a bit from three weeks ago (1%) but still sits at a measly 6% through two-thirds of the season.
- That's why things like this happen: no. 1 quickest TT (Ben Roethlisberger) is averaging 18.7 paFP/G... while no. 2 slowest (Josh Allen) is averaging a very similar 17.6 paFP/G.
- As it has been the case all year long, the quickest throwers are perceived as "bad/wild/underdeveloped" players (Fitzpatrick, Haskins Jr., Dalton, Foles, Mullens...) while the slowest throwers (Jackson, Allen, Wilson, Cousins, Ryan) are attached much better "opinions".
- In any case, the beauty is always in the middle, and that's why the best passers on a fpg basis are ranked in the middle of the TT leaderboard (Herbert, Rodgers, Prescott, Mahomes, and Watson are all there and averaging 20+ fpg).
- 10 of 39 qualified QBs have TT marks below 2.60 seconds. Of those, seven have been either benched or thrust into the starting position through W12 (because of performance-related reasons).
- On the other hand, only one (Cam Newton) quarterback of the 13 with TT marks above 2.80 seconds has been benched due to performance-related reasons.
- Through 12 weeks, there are six QBs averaging 19+ paFP/G, and their TT marks are spread all over the spectrum, ranging from 2.63 (Justin Herbert) to 2.93 (Russell Wilson).
- Something similar happens at the bottom of the paFP/G leaderboard: of the eight QBs averaging <10 paFP/G so far, the TT numbers range from 2.49 (Andy Dalton) to 2.92 (Drew Lock).
- As expected, the longer a QB takes to throw, the more yardage he tends to rack up as routes have more time to develop. All quarterbacks except one averaging 8.0+ Y/A are posting TT marks above 2.8 seconds.
- On the other hand, almost all quarterbacks (7 of 9) averaging <6.5 Y/A are posting TT marks below 2.8 seconds.
- All things considered, don't put much weight on this metric, as it is way more descriptive of past performance than predictive of future one.
Completed/Intended Air Yards & Air Yards Differential
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points: 32% / 19% / 13%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Things are back to normal, with both CAY and IAY correlating nicely with fpg through W12 after a rather surprising outcome the last time we checked.
- Take CAY and IAY for what they are. In fantasy leagues, what amounts to points are the things that happen on the field (CAY), not what players want to happen (IAY) on it. That's why CAY is much more impactful in fantasy outcomes than IAY.
- Mighty Baker Mayfield leads the league in CAY at 7.7. Only four more players are at 7.0+ CAY through this point.
- Of those five QBs, Ryan Tannehill lives in another world given his league-leading 0.8 AYD. Drew Brees has the same AYD, but he's aiming for 5.8 yards compared to Tannehill's 7.8 IAY per attempt.
- At the absolute opposite side of the spectrum is Joe Flacco, whose -4.0 AYD talks about both his willingness to air the rock out and the putrid receiving corps of the Jets, who are only capable of catching short passes (6.9 CAY).
- Only four players have AYD at or above -1.0. Of those four, Alex Smith can be left out thanks to his small sample size (155 attempts). Among the three left (Daniel Jones, Tannehill, Brees), only Tannehill is keeping up that small gap while aiming for 6.0+ IAY per attempt.
- On average, qualified quarterbacks are completing 2.1 AY fewer than they're aiming for. The average CAY is at 5.9 while the average IAY is at 8.0 through W12.
- Removing the extreme outliers in the CAY category (<4.0, >7.0) things don't change that much. The average CAY goes down to 5.8 and the average IAY goes up to 8.1. Nothing remarkable.
- Joe Flacco and Baker Mayfield are the only two quarterbacks with a CAY+IAY combining for 17.0+ yards.
- There is only one qualified QB averaging a CAY+IAY mark below 10 yards: Alex Smith at 8.6 yards per attempt.
- The combined CAY+IAY marks correlate very strongly with fpg. The top-12 quarterbacks in that metric are averaging 14.5 fpg, compared to 12.1 fpg by the bottom-12 QBs.
- That being said, and once more, middle-ranked QBs (all the remaining 15) are averaging the most fpg of all qualified quarterbacks at 16.1. It's all about finding the sweet, balanced spot, folks.
Aggressiveness
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points: negative-20%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- We define "Aggressiveness" as the percentage of passes a quarterback throws into tight coverage, that is, when a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the point of the catch/interception. Don't take this metric as a sign of "braveness" or anything like that, though. It relates more to reckless-passing than anything else.
- A quick peek at the most aggressive passers gives you an idea of what we're dealing with here: Trubisky has been benched already, Foles replaced him, Fitzpatrick is insane and was also benched for Tua (who was benched himself for Fitz), Joe Burrow was forced to risk the biscuit on a weekly basis, Drew Lock is a rather wild prospect, and Joe Flacco/Carson Wentz... welp.
- It is not that Mahomes doesn't risk a thing while tossing the ball around. It is that Kansas City is such a powerful offense that he just finds open receivers effortlessly, pretty much the same as Russell Wilson.
- That can't entirely be said of Brees and Bridgewater, who are at AGG marks of 11.1 and 11.2 percent respectively but are throwing passes that go for a rather paltry <5.0 IAY compared to Mahomes' 6.5 and Wilson0's 6.6.
- Even though he's been out for a week already, Joe Burrow has led the league in aggressive throws the four times we've run this column, and not by a short distance. Burrow finished his season with 87 aggressive attempts, while Wentz comes in second (one more game played) at 78, followed by Herbert (72) and Tom Brady (71).
- Only three QBs (Luton, Garoppolo, and Alex Smith) have attempted fewer than 20 tight-window passes, but all of them have fewer than 155 attempts on the season.
Attempts & Yards & Y/A
Correlation with Fantasy Points: 65% / 75% / 66%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Not many big secrets hidden in these three stats, am I right? The correlation is high with fantasy points basically because fantasy points rely mostly on pure yardage, and to rack up yards you have to throw the ball (the more the better, that is). Doesn't take a genius.
- Two of the three quarterbacks leading the league in attempts/game (Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow) are done for the year. The other one, Justin Herbert, is averaging 40.2 per game and nobody is closer than 0.7 to him, almost a full pass-attempt.
- At the other end of that leaderboard, Tua Tagovailoa contrasts incredibly with fellow-rookie Herbert. Tua has averaged just 19.4 attempts per game in his five matches. The only other player with <25 attempts per game is Jimmy Garoppolo.
- On average, qualified QBs are averaging 33.6 passes per game. That means Herbert is attempting 19% more passes than the average QB, while Tua is throwing 18% passes below average.
- Volume is key in fantasy leagues, which is why players attempting 38+ passes per game are averaging 17.3 fpg while those attempting <30 are averaging 11.7 fpg.
- Kirk Cousins has been the only viable low-volume quarterback this season. Even though he's attempting just 29.1 passes per game, he has the second-highest Y/A average (8.7) only bested by Deshaun Watson's 8.8 (though the latter is averaging 33 passes).
- Cousins has been way wilder than Watson. Cousins has 23 TDs against 11 interceptions compared to Watson's 24:5 ratio. Watson has also crossed the 3,200-yard mark already, while Cousins is at 2,768 yards through W12.
- Aaron Rodgers has 381 (13th-most) attempts on the season. He has also scored 33 passing touchdowns leading the league. Those two marks combine to make A-Rod the most efficient attempt-to-TD passer through W12, as he has needed just 12 attempts per touchdown. Rusell Wilson is second at 13 att/TD, and both Cousins and Mahomes are tied for third at 14 att/TD.
- Sam Darnold rank last in att/TD with 73 between scoring-tosses. He's followed by Cam Newton (67 att/TD) and Jake Luton (55).
- Although similar, yet not entirely the same, the yards/TD leaderboard is fun to explore. Trubisky has accrued the fewest yards per TD at just 89 between them (802 yards, 9 TDs). Rodgers is second at 94 yds/TD, with Tua being third (100).
- Cam Newton has thrown for 496 yards between touchdowns (!), the most in the league. He's followed by Darnold (414) and Alex Smith (356).
- Only seven of 39 qualified QBs through W12 have been picked off more times than touchdowns they've thrown for. Only one (Andy Dalton) has an even count (5:5).
- Tua Tagovailoa is the only qualified QB that has yet to throw an interception. His 6:0 ratio is the best in the league thanks to that.
- Among the rest of players, Mahomes has the best ratio at 15 TD/INT. No other player is even at 9:1, with Rodgers (33:4) being second at 8.25 TD/INT, and Brees (18:3) third at 6.0.
- The worst ratio belongs to Jake Luton at 0.33 (2:6), followed by Darnolds' 0.38 (3:8) and Newton's 0.44 (4:9).
- Average Y/A for quarterbacks with 20+ paFP/G: 8.2
- Average Y/A for quarterbacks with 10+ paFP/G and < 20 fpg: 7.3
- Average Y/A for quarterbacks with fewer than 10 paFP/G: 6.3
- Yes, that explains the really-high 65% relationship between Y/A and paFP/G. Bank on bulky throwers, folks.
Completion Percentage & xCOMP & COMP Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points: 56% / 11% / 64%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- The world of hypotheticals is cool, but what truly matters is what actually happens on the field. That is why the real completion percentage is the stat that matters, and why the expected rate doesn't cut a good deal for fantasy GMs.
- That being said, the difference between both marks (CPOE) is also a very strong indicator of fantasy performance, almost on par with actual COMP%, which makes sense considering that those that "overperform" or play to higher-than-expected levels on average are the ones who more often than not put on high-octane performances.
- Folks, we're two-thirds into this fantasy football season and Cook Wilson is still dropping fire. That's because he's the leading, reigning, undefeated champ at CPOE with the lone 6.0 mark among all qualified QBs through W12.
- The competition is strong, although a one-man crew: Kirk Cousins is second to Wilson and is this close to Russell at 5.9 CPOE, only 0.1 points below the latter.
- With all due respect to Cousins, who has been terrific this season, Wilson has been quite better in 2020: he's scoring 21.1 fpg to Cousin's 16.4, has attempted way more passes, thrown for almost 500 more yards, eight more TDs, etc, etc...
- The jump from Cousins to the third-highest CPOE average (Joe Burrow, 3.7) is the same as that from Burrow to 16th-best Nick Foles. That is more than a full tier in 12-team fantasy-QB ranks (!).
- Jake Luton is atrocious, or even worse. He's currently completing 11.2% fewer passes than he should and he's the lone quarterback below -7.0% of those qualified.
- Mahomes has scaped the not-understandable-by-many bottom rank of past weeks. Mahomes is currently at a 0.7 CPOE, his first positive mark of the season. Remember: the model knows everything about quarterbacks' passes, and that includes how open receivers are, perhaps the thing hurting Mahomes the most through this point in the season as his receiving corps was making his life way easier than expected.
- Remember also that the model isn't dumb and Wentz, for example, has been plain bad. He's the only player with a negative CPOE (-3.6) while attempting at least 400 passes this season. Stafford is at -3.3 with 386 passing attempts.
- Brees (how surprising...) leads the league in completion rate at 73.5 percent, which makes sense considering he's not even trying deep passes anymore. Only two other quarterbacks (Wilson and Bridgewater) are above 70%, yet both of them are aiming for more than Brees' 5.8 IAY.
- Brees also lead the xCOMP leaderboard at 71%. In this case, Garoppolo and Alex Smith are in the top-three at 70.7% and 70.1% respectively.
- Only one quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger; -0.7) averaging 16+ fpg is currently holding a negative CPOE.
- On the other hand, only three of 13 QBs averaging <13 fpg are posting positive CPOE marks (Foles, Tua, and Dalton).
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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