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Folks, it's time to put on your battle armor and get ready for war as we get ready for the all-important championship week. If you are still in the playoffs, that means you have been been able to stay alive and grind through 15 long weeks. Only one thing can beat you to the finish line: yourself. But hey, don't lose any bit of hope. I'm here for another week to show you how the league is looking entering the final round of the fantasy playoffs so you can make the final pinpoint decisions of the year and bring that championship home.
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 15 - The State Of The Passing Game
One of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players are Air Yards. The metrics around it are key to know who is really over-performing or under-performing among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with quarterback-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
As we'll be discussing quarterbacks and their passing stats, I will reduce the fantasy points per game averages to just those related to passing. That means that I have removed the rushing/receiving fantasy points the qualifying quarterbacks have logged during the season. I've called this metric paFP/G, which is to say passing Fantasy Points per Game.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 113 pass attempts.
Time to Throw
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points: 6%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- When it comes to explaining fantasy points, there are few less predictive metrics than Time to Throw. The relationship has gone up a bit from a month and a half ago (1%) but has sat at a measly 6% in back-to-back columns (W12 and now W15)
- That's why things like this happen: no. 1 quickest TT (Ben Roethlisberger) is averaging 17.7 paFP/G... while no. 2 slowest (Josh Allen) is averaging a very similar 18.7 paFP/G.
- It would take a miracle in the remaining two weeks for anyone to displace Big Ben from the no. 1 spot in this category. Fitz is benched, Haskins is 0.17 seconds away, and Rivers is already at 0.20 seconds of distance. Not a great chance of a change of positions happening here, with Ben having held on the lead position for a lot of time through the year.
- Baker Mayfield, on the other end, is in a very similar situation although his margin is smaller as Josh Allen is just 0.08 seconds separated from the lead (or trail).
- As we had already recognized in the past, the main takeaway from this leaderboard is that beauty is, in fact, in the middle.
- Of the top-11 quarterbacks in paFP/G (all at 17.0+), their average TT is 2.73, which is precisely the same value that all 39 qualified quarterbacks are averaging through the year among them all.
- Nine of 39 qualified QBs have TT marks below 2.60 seconds. Of those, four have been either benched or thrust into the starting position through W15 (because of performance-related reasons, not injuries).
- On the other hand, only two (Carson Wentz and Cam Newton) quarterbacks of the 14 with TT marks above 2.80 seconds has been benched due to performance-related reasons.
- Through 15 weeks, there are four QBs averaging 19+ paFP/G, and their TT marks are all in a smaller span than they were in past columns, ranging from 2.72 (Aaron Rodgers) to 2.94 (Russell Wilson).
- Something similar happens at the bottom of the paFP/G leaderboard: of the five QBs averaging <10 paFP/G so far, the TT numbers range from 2.65 (Alex Smith) to 2.86 (Sam Darnold).
- As expected, the longer a QB takes to throw, the more yardage he tends to rack up as routes have more time to develop. All quarterbacks except one averaging 8.0+ Y/A are posting TT marks above 2.7 seconds.
- On the other hand, half of all quarterbacks (4 of 8) averaging <6.5 Y/A are posting TT marks below 2.7 seconds.
- All things considered, don't put much weight on this metric, as it is way more descriptive of past performance than predictive of future ones.
Completed/Intended Air Yards & Air Yards Differential
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points: 31% / 19% / 0%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Things have stayed on expected terms, with both CAY and IAY correlating nicely with paFP/G through W15 after a rather surprising outcome a little over a month ago, when there seemed to be no apparent correlation halfway through the year.
- Take CAY and IAY for what they are. In fantasy leagues, what amounts to points are the things that happen on the field (CAY), not what players want to happen (IAY) on it. That's why CAY is much more impactful in fantasy outcomes than IAY.
- While Baker Mayfield was the lone leader three weeks ago in CAY at 7.7, he's now sharing the no. 1 spot with Matt Ryan at 7.5 each. In fact, Ryan is accomplishing it while having thrown 141 more passes, so his mark is way more impressive than Mayfield's.
- Five players are at 7.0+ CAY through this point, the same number as in W12. All of them are still starting games and should close the season as starters, so it's going to be fun to see who ends at the top of the leaderboard with only 0.5 yards (at most) separating all five QBs.
- All those five QBs have similar AYD, varying in just 0.6 yards. Coming right next in the CAY leaderboard is Joe Flacco, who has been absolutely insane during his time on the gridiron: Flacco has a negative-4.0 IAY mark, as he's completed 6.9 yards per attempt while aiming for a monster 10.9 yards on average.
- No other qualified quarterback has come even remotely close to Flacco in that department. The second-highest IAY belongs to Carson Wentz, Mayfield, and Ryan, all at 9.1 yards (1.8 yards away from Flacco's mark).
- Drew Lock is the only other QB at 9.0+ IAY through W15.
- Combining both CAY and IAYvalues, Joe Flacco is, obviously, the leading in that CAY+IAY stat at 17.8 total yards. Mayfield and Ryan are both tied in second place at 16.6, given their exact same CAY (7.5) and IAY (9.1) marks.
- At the bottom of this made-up stat, we find Alex Smith (9.1 total yards), the lone player below 10.0 yards. Jimmy Garoppolo (10.1) is right above Smith, followed by Dwayne Haskins Jr. (10.4).
- The combined CAY+IAY marks correlate somewhat withy with paFP/G (30+ percent). The top-12 quarterbacks in that metric are averaging 16.3 paFP/G, compared to 13.2 paFP/G by the bottom-12 QBs.
Aggressiveness
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points: negative-23%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- We define "Aggressiveness" as the percentage of passes a quarterback throws into tight coverage, that is, when a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the point of the catch/interception. Don't take this metric as a sign of "braveness" or anything like that, though. It relates more to reckless-passing than anything else.
- A quick peek at the most aggressive passers gives you an idea of what we're dealing with here: Trubisky has been benched already, Foles replaced him (and vice-versa), Fitzpatrick is insane and was also benched for Tua (who was benched himself for Fitz but came back to starting later), Joe Burrow was forced to risk the biscuit on a weekly basis, Drew Lock is a rather wild prospect, and Joe Flacco/Carson Wentz... welp.
- The fact that all Miami's and Chicago's quarterbacks rank in the top-6 indicates that while those four quarterbacks might be wild and willing, they are also operating with rather mediocre wideouts (except for DeVante Parker and Allen Robinson) who are finding it hard to separate, thus forcing "aggressive"/tight throws.
- It is not that top-tier quarterbacks such as Mahomes, Wilson, and Rodgers don't risk a thing while tossing the ball around. The thing is that not only are those players highly qualified for their jobs, but they also have tremendous offensive players to work with, which makes it easier to find open men around the field.
- On counting numbers, only Jimmy Garoppolo and Taysom Hill have thrown 20 or fewer aggressive passes through the year. Obviously, their samples are two of the smallest ones with just 140 and 119 total attempts respectively.
- Of those with 400+ passing attempts, Teddy Bridgewater (49) has thrown the fewer tight passes while Justin Herbert (102) leads the league and is the only player to have already broken the 100-pass mark.
- Daniel Jones, with 68 aggressive attempts in 382 passes thrown, is the QB with the most passes thrown into tight windows among those with <400 attempts through the year, currently above nine QBs with 400+ attempts.
Attempts & Yards & Y/A
Correlation with Fantasy Points: 68% / 75% / 54%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Not many big secrets hidden in these three stats, am I right? The correlation is high with fantasy points basically because fantasy points rely mostly on pure yardage, and to rack up yards you have to throw the ball (the more the better, that is). Doesn't take a genius.
- What Deshaun Watson is doing with his very putrid wideouts is insane. He leads the league in Y/A at 8.8, which means he's 0.6 yards above "true" second-best Kirk Cousins (Dak got injured just five games and 222 attempts into the season). It's going to be hard for Kirk to get past Watson in the remaining two games.
- Only six players (five without Dak) are at 8.0+ Y/A through Week 15 compared to only one below 6.0 yards per attempt (Sam Darnold).
- No wonder all of the six QBs in the first group are averaging 19.7 paFP/G... while Darnold is at a silly 7.7 paFP/G himself, a pretty stinky mark.
- Two players will finish the season averaging 40+ passing attempts per game: Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow. Two more are currently averaging that mark and will fight to stay above the water: Justin Herbert (41) and Ben Roethlisberger (40).
- On the other end, Taysom Hill is averaging a rather unbelievable 9 attempts per game (though it must be said that we're taking all of his 14 games played into account here). The lowest-volume "full-time" quarterback is Garoppolo with 23 attempts per game, followed by Cam Newton (25).
- QBs with 35+ attempts per game: 16.5 passing-fantasy points per game on average. QBs below those attempts per game: 12.9 paFP/G.
- Among low-volume passes (fewer than 33 attempts per game) only four quarterbacks (Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Mitchell Trubisky, and Ryan Tannehill) are currently averaging more than 15 paFP/G. They are throwing an average of 32/31 passes per game.
- Aaron Rodgers has 477 (12th-most) attempts on the season. He has also scored 40 passing touchdowns, leading the league. Those two marks combine to make A-Rod the most efficient attempt-to-TD passer through W15, as he has needed just 12 attempts per touchdown. Rusell Wilson is second at 13 att/TD, and Tannehill is third at 14 att/TD.
- Cam Newton's numbers are horrid. Is needing 66 attempts between touchdowns (5 on the year), by far the largest amount followed by Alex Smith's 55 and Sam Darnold's 50.
- Although similar, yet not entirely the same, the yards/TD leaderboard is fun to explore. Rodgers has accrued the fewest yards per TD at just 96 between them (3,828 yards, 40 TDs). Wilson is second at 103 yds/TD, with Trubisky being third (110).
- Cam Newton has thrown for 476 yards between touchdowns (!), the most in the league. He's followed by Alex Smith (355) and Daniel Jones (308). Yes, Cam has been hella bad.
- Only four of 39 qualified QBs through W15 have been picked off more times than touchdowns they've thrown for. Only two (Nick Mullens and Haskins) have an even count (12:12 and 5:5 respectively).
- It took him a while, but Tua Tagovailoa finally threw an interception (two, in fact) through Week 15 and is now at 9:2, which is a rather nice ratio for a rookie.
- Among the rest of the players, Rodgers has the best ratio at 10 TD/INT. No other player is even at 8:1, with Mahomes (36:5) being second at 7.2 TD/INT, and Tannehill (31:5) third at 6.2.
- The worst ratio belongs to Cam Newton at 0.5 (5:10), followed by Darnolds' and Smith's 0.7 (6:9 and 4:6 respectively).
- Average Y/A for quarterbacks with 18+ paFP/G: 7.9
- Average Y/A for quarterbacks with 12+ paFP/G and < 18 paFP/G: 7.3
- Average Y/A for quarterbacks with fewer than 10 paFP/G: 6.6
- Yes, that explains the rather-high 54% relationship between Y/A and paFP/G. Bank on bulky throwers, folks.
Completion Percentage & xCOMP & COMP Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points: 37% / -2% / 50%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- The world of hypotheticals is cool, but what truly matters is what actually happens on the field. That is why the real completion percentage is the stat that matters, and why the expected rate doesn't cut a good deal for fantasy GMs.
- That being said, the difference between both marks (CPOE) is also a very strong indicator of fantasy performance, almost on par with actual COMP%, which makes sense considering that those that "overperform" or play to higher-than-expected levels on average are the ones who more often than not put on high-octane performances.
- Kirk Cousins' mark of 5.3 percent of completions above expectations is absolutely crazy. He's 0.7 percentage points above second-best Russell Wilson, and it is not that Cousins has thrown the ball many fewer times than Wilson (435 to 490 through W15).
- That being said, and even overperforming the model, Cousins is completing just 67.5% of his throws compared to Wilson's 70.2% mark, a much more impressive one.
- Only Cousins and Joe Burrow have completed fewer than 68% of their passes while having CPOE marks above 3.5 percentage points.
- Now that Jake Luton is no longer qualified (he had a putrid negative-11.2% CPOE) it is all about Haskins for the worst mark through W15 having completed 5.2% fewer passes than he should have. He's the only player below -4.1%, with Wentz second-worst at that mark.
- Mahomes is back on the negative side of leaderboard, currently at a -0.4 CPOE. Remember: the model knows everything about quarterbacks' passes, and that includes how open receivers are, perhaps the thing hurting Mahomes the most through this point in the season as his receiving corps was making his life way easier than expected.
- Remember also that the model isn't dumb and Wentz/Haskins/Mullens, for example, have been plain bad.
- Brees and Hill (how surprising...) lead the league in completion rate at 70.5 and 73.5 percent, which makes sense considering their passes are going for 5.9 and 7.1 intended yards on average.
- Russ has been much more impressive as the only other QB at 70+ percent of completions through W15. Wilson (490) has attempted more passes than Brees and Hill combined (451) aimed at receivers 8.5 yards downfield, and still put up that super-high completion rate.
- Brees also lead the xCOMP leaderboard at 70% among still-active quarterbacks, as Garoppolo fell down injured a while ago with just 140 attempts (Brees has 332 and came back last weekend).
- Only one quarterback (Patrick Mahomes; -0.4) averaging 18+ paFP/G is currently holding a negative CPOE.
- On the other hand, only three of 15 QBs averaging <13 paFP/G are posting positive CPOE marks (Foles, Tua, and Hill).
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and win the final game of the season to lift your league's fantasy trophy!
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