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You can officially start panicking. We're already through three weeks of the year, and by next Monday at this time, you'll be looking at the schedule to realize that a quarter of the season is already behind us. It sucks, but it means there are still three more quarters ahead of us! Yay!
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 3 - The State Of The Passing Game
Back a few days ago when I introduced the series to you, I mentioned one of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players: air yards. The metrics around it are key to know who is really over-performing or under-performing among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers. For this last group, which mostly features on the ground, we can look at time, speed, and efficiency metrics.
For the first week's analysis, I opted to go with the receivers (and tight ends) group. For the second iteration, I turned my attention to running backs, for which we looked at efficiency and time-related metrics to try and get some insights from the data.
Now the time has come to tackle the most important position at football and probably every other sport out there: quarterbacks.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with quarterback-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
As we'll be discussing quarterbacks and their passing stats, I will reduce the fantasy points per game averages to just those related to passing. That means that I have removed the rushing/receiving fantasy points the qualifying quarterbacks have logged during the season. I've called this metric paFP/G, which is to say passing Fantasy Points per Game.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 23 pass attempts.
Time to Throw
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 6%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Although there is some relation between TT and FPPG (paFP/G, I mean), the truth is that randomness is the calling card of this metric. Just look at the top and the bottom of the leaderboard three weeks into the season, and you'll see why.
- As many as five quarterbacks rank in the quickest-nine group while averaging 15+ FPPG. Of those in the slowest-nine group, there are four players at 15+ FPPG through W3. Nothing to exploit here when it comes to fantasy takeaways.
- Big Ben is truly in a league of his own as the only player constantly throwing the ball before 2.45 seconds. The distance between Ben and second-quickest Andy Dalton is the same as that between Dalton and No. 7 Kirk Cousins.
- Limiting the sample to QBs with at least 100+ pass attempts so far (18 players), only four of them (Ben, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, and Cousins) are throwing quicker than 2.6 seconds.
- On the other hand, eight QBs are holding on to the ball at least 2.8 seconds before looking for a receiver.
- Even though his mark is clearly an outlier, all things considered, Ben is one of the least touchdown-dependent quarterbacks so far, generating his 12.7 FPPG without relying much on scores (only three TDs in three games).
- Joe Burrow sits at the opposite corner, with 61% of his FPPG coming via touchdowns (7). Brady, who has scored 10 passing TD already, only owes 50% of his FPPG to those scores in comparison while having virtually the same TT.
- Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston are the white to Ben's black when it comes to TT. The former two are posting incredibly high marks three weeks in while averaging a very similar FPPG so far this year.
- As was the case with the top of the leaderboard, the bottom features the likes of an MVP in Jackson, but also putridly rotten players (at least these days) in Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, and Carson Wentz.
- QBs averaging 20+ FPPG through W3 are throwing the ball with an average TT of 2.71 seconds.
- QBs averaging <12 FPPG through W3 are throwing the ball with an average TT of 2.74 seconds.
- All things considered, don't put much weight on this metric, as it is way more descriptive of past performance and style than predictive of future fantasy outings.
Completed/Intended Air Yards & Air Yards Differential
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 31% / 19% / 0%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Shout out to Lamar, because he's been absolutely murdering secondaries in September. Jackson's 9.1 CAY--and even more his ridiculous 12.3 IAY--rank first league-wide and it's not really close. The distance between Jackson and Daniel Jones (1.2 air yards) is the same as that between Jones and No. 10 Jameis Winston. Incredible.
- Not only is that interesting, but Jackson has only thrown three INT in the past three games even though he's bombing the ball away with gusto. The low-scoring numbers (three TDs) should positively regress a bit, though the Ravens offense is not precisely packed with mind-blowing receivers...
- Matt Ryan's and Jared Goff's numbers hurt to look at. Yes, both are putting up 12.8+ FPPG but they have been the opposite to biscuit-riskers with ridiculously small intended and completed air yards. Goff is at least trying a bit more with 6.2 IAY compared to Ryan's second-lowest 4.6 mark.
- No wonder both Ryan and Goff have two of the bottom-four marks in AGG%, as we'll see in the next section.
- Looking at the leaderboard (top and bottom) above, you can clearly see how the 31% and 19% relationships between CAY, IAY, and FPPG show up a bit. All QBs with CAY marks above 6.5 with the exception of Zach Wilson are putting up 12+ FPPG, while only half of those below 4.5 are averaging those points.
- The noise was loud when it came to critics of Chicago's HC Matt Naggy and his decision to start Dalton above Justin Fields for a couple of games. Dalton couldn't have played it safer, with a 3.9/4.2 CAY/IAY in his 49 pass attempts and the lowest difference between both marks league-wide (-0.3 AYD).
- Daniel Jones has aimed his passes almost nine yards downfield but he's still completing them at an average air yardage of 7.9 yards down the field. That's impressive considering he's already at 104 pass attempts. He's the only QB with 100+ pass attempts to have an AYD above -1.0, at -0.8 three games into the season.
- There is a reason why AYD has a net-zero-relationship with FPPG. Just check the names at the top and the bottom of such leaderboard.
- Lowest AYD QBs: Rodgers, Tua, Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, Lamar, Josh Allen
- Highest AYD QBs: Dalton, Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tyrod Taylor, Cousins, Wentz, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford.
- Ben Roethlisberger and Jared Goff are the only two players with 800+ passing yards and CAY marks lower than 4.9 yards. Obviously, they have needed the 130 and 123 pass attempts to reach those yards; in other words, they have needed the third- and fifth-most attempts through W3 to hit the 800-yard mark.
Aggressiveness
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): negative-23%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- NGS defines "Aggressiveness" as the percentage of passes a quarterback throws into tight coverage, that is when a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the point of the catch/interception. Don't take this metric as a sign of "braveness" or anything like that, though. It relates more to reckless-passing than anything else.
- A quick peek at the most aggressive passers gives you an idea of what we're dealing with here. Fields started in W3 and it looks like he will be benched back asap, Tua is bouncy as hell, Heinicke was a career one-game starter before 2021, Daniel Jones I don't even know what is, Jacoby Brissett is a perennial safety-valve-reserve-QB, Big Ben is Big Ben, Davis Mills is a rookie...
- Speaking of Justin Fields, welcome to this man's show from this point in the article on. Fields, in case you haven't noticed, is posting a stupid 34.3 AGG% mark. That's not high. That's huge. That's something that shouldn't be there at all. That's something we won't see anytime soon unless he keeps playing games. That's the father-outlier of outliers. Yikes.
- Fields has thrown 12 of 35 passive in aggressive ways, that is, within a one-yard or lower distance between his target and that poor man's closest defender. Now you understand why Allen Robinson II is struggling to produce, folks.
- With the exception of Matt Ryan (12.8), all QBs with fewer than 13% passes thrown on AGG% terms are producing 15+ FPPG so far this season. Expanding that field to players with AGG% marks at or below 15%, there are 12 of 15 QBs doing so. Thus the quite-high (strong and negative) relationship between AGG% and FPPG.
- Pat Mahomes is at the lowest AGG% with a measly 6.3 percent of his throws put in small windows. Those are the Chiefs, though, which feature a couple of studs pass-catchers, and a nonsensically-good quarterback. Only 7 of Mahomes' 111 attempts have been thrown into small one-yard gaps.
- Daniel Jones (21.2 AGG%) is the only QB with 100+ pass attempts to throw more than 18.5 percent of those into tight windows. Big Ben is the only other such player above 17%.
- On a counting basis, Roethlisberger has the highest number of aggressive attempts with 24 so far this year. He's followed by Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, and Mac Jones with 22, 21, and 20 respectively.
- At the other end, there is a three-way tie between Mahomes, Tyrod Taylor, and Tua with only 7 aggressive passes each. Andy Dalton and Davis Mills come next with 8 such passes each. That's cool, but only Mahomes (111) has thrown 50+ passes in 2021, which makes his stupid 6.3 AGG% mark impressive as hell in comparison to the other four's.
Attempts & Yards & Y/A
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 68% / 75% / 54%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Not many big secrets are hidden in these three stats, am I right? The correlation is high with fantasy points basically because fantasy points rely mostly on pure yardage, and to rack up yards you have to throw the ball (the more the better, that is).
- Only seven quarterbacks are attempting more than 40 passes per game, and five of them are averaging 15+ FPPG. Tip: throw the ball often, folks.
- Shouts out to Tom Brady for leading the league with an unreasonable 47 pass attempts per game. Carr is second already down at 45, with Big Ben ranked third thanks to his 43 throws a night.
- Speaking of Carr and Brady, they're first and second in both attempts and total passing yards; Carr leads the latter leaderboard with 1,203 yards to Brady's 1,087, though.
- Matthew Stafford is the only QB with 900+ passing yards on fewer than 100 pass attempts. Russell Wilson is only five yards from reaching 900 yards and he's thrown the ball 8 fewer times than Stafford through W3.
- What I mean is that there is a reason both rank no. 1 and no. 2 in the Y/A leaderboard while being the only players putting up 10+ yards per attempt.
- Our man Justin Fields, obviously, trails the league with a stupid 3.9 Y/A. He's the only qualifier averaging fewer than 4 yards per attempt at this point, but he's only attempted 35 passes. Brissett is at just 4.3 Y/A while having thrown the rock 89 times. Now, that's concerning.
- As hyped as Trevor Lawrence was before getting to the pros, he has upset everybody caring at least a bit about the NFL and his career. 118 pass attempts for a low 669 yards have the rook averaging only 5.7 Y/A on 39 pass attempts per game. He's been picked 7 (!!!) times already and he's only been good for 5 TDs.
- It's not that other rookie QBs are thriving though. Mac Jones is considered the lone playable freshman yet he's at 737 yards on 120 attempts... while the oft-murdered Zach Wilson is at a close 628 yards on 105 attempts. Not the widest game if you ask me, yet the perception of these two has been pretty much the opposite to that.
Completion Percentage & xCOMP & COMP Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 37% / -2% / 50%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- The world of hypotheticals is cool, but what truly matters is what actually happens on the field. That is why the real completion percentage is the stat that matters, and why the expected rate doesn't cut a good deal for fantasy GMs.
- That being said, the difference between both marks (CPOE) is the strongest indicator of fantasy performance, which makes sense considering that those that "overperform" or play to higher-than-expected levels on average are the ones who more often than not put on high-octane performances.
- I'm sorry for the kid, but I can only laugh at Justin Fields' otherworldly -20.5 CPOE. I had never ever in the past few years seen such an incredible gap between actual and expected completion rates. It's just impossible to believe, seriously.
- Fields' 40% completion rate is already low enough, but pairing it with the fact that he should be completing 60.5 percent of the passes he's attempting makes it even worse. No other quarterback has a lower xCOMP% through three games, with Davis Mills' 60.8% mark the second-lowest so far.
- Surprisingly not surprising to find Teddy Bridgewater at the top of the leaderboard. Teddy B has completed 11.1% more passes than he should, which speaks of his fantastic outings so far this season but also of his "safe" ways of play.
- Although Bridgewater's 14.7 AGG% isn't low by any means, the truth is that Bridgewater has one of the largest TT marks so far yet he's actually completing a lot of passes for good yardage (6.6 CAY and 9.1 IAY). The CPOE will end regressing a bit, obviously, but so far so good for Teddy leading a barren-of-talent receiving corps that keeps losing warm bodies by the week.
- Only Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray are keeping up sky-high CPOE marks while attempting 100+ passes through W3. No other quarterback above 100 pass attempts is currently above a 4.6 CPOE in comparison to Prescott's 10.0 and Murray's 9.8 marks.
- Aaron Rodgers can be found at the top of the leaderboard while he's the only player above a 3.6 CPOE with an xCOMP below 65% and a COMP below 69%. In other words, Rodgers' throws are often harder than those of his fellow QBs yet he's connecting on a rather high basis even with that being the case.
- Getting back to Fields and the not-so-great performers, It's very reasonable to find very shaky quarterbacks into the negative realm. Fields and Lawrence are rookies, Tua an oft-injured second-year man, Roethlisberger an old washed-up passer (same as Matt Ryan), and Brissett/Winston/Wentz are bouncy as hell.
- Ryan Tannehill and Josh Allen are also part of that group, but Tannehill's case should be a little bit more concerning given his sky-high 66.1 xCOMP%. Not to mention Garoppolo's -0.8 CPOE while having a ridiculous 73% xCOMP% through three games. It looks like Trey Lance SZN is (or should be, at the very least) inching closer!
- Kirk Cousins' and Matthew Stafford's numbers are rather interesting. Both QBs have virtually the same xCOMP (70.3 and 69.5) and FPPG (22.9 and 23.9) yet their approaches to passing can't be more different. Cousins is aiming his throws 6.0 yards downfield compared to Stafford's 8.7, and although you won't believe it, Cousins has thrown 119 passes already compared to Stafford's 94. They are 8:0 and 9:1 in TD:INT rate so far. Again, quite different approaches to reach very similar outcomes.
- Rookies Lawrence and Wilson have 7 interception each in 118 and 105 attempts. Those growing pains, I guess. None of them has completed even 55% of his attempts, and they're underperforming to very similar levels at -8.4 and -8.6 CPOE marks through three weeks.
- Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray, tied for the third-most interceptions with 4 each, are completing 70.7% and 76.5% of their passes in comparison. Quite the jump from the marks posted by the two rooks introduced in the prior point.
- Lamar Jackson (not Justin Fields!) has the lowest xCOMP among all qualifiers at just 58.2%. That's reasonable considering his mental 12.3 IAY mark, which is surely making it difficult for Lamar's passes to connect. Even then, he's at a kinda-nice 60.9 true COMP%.
- Derek Carr (62.8%) is the only quarterback averaging 20+ FPPG while having an xCOMP below 64.9%, more than two full percentage points below Russell Wilson.
- Daniel Jones (65.4%) is the only player yet to throw an interception with a completion percentage below 70.5%. Nice to see, considering he's already attempted 104 (16th most) passes in three games.
- Josh Allen (-0.9%) and Jameis Winston (-2.5%) are the only two QBs with 6+ touchdowns (7 each) to have completion rates below 64.7% and negative CPOE marks.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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