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We're past Week 9 already and entering the home stretch of the season, which means you will be fighting harder than ever to procure that sweet playoff spot. And knowing the importance of having a solid quarterback in your lineups (or two, if you are part of a 2QB/Super-FLEX league!), it's only right we highlight them in this week's column.
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 9 - The State Of The Passing Game
One of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players is air yards. The metrics around it are key to know who is really over-performing or under-performing among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with quarterback-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
As we'll be discussing quarterbacks and their passing stats, I will reduce the fantasy points per game averages to just those related to passing. That means that I have removed the rushing/receiving fantasy points the qualifying quarterbacks have logged during the season. I've called this metric paFP/G, which is to say passing Fantasy Points per Game.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 68 pass attempts.
Time to Throw
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 6%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Although there is some relation between TT and FPPG (paFP/G, I mean), the truth is that randomness is the calling card of this metric. Just look at the top and the bottom of the leaderboard more than halfway through the season, and you'll see why.
- As many as five quarterbacks rank in the quickest-12 group while averaging 15+ FPPG. Of those in the slowest-nine group, there are four players at 15+ FPPG through W9. Nothing to exploit here when it comes to fantasy takeaways.
- Not only did Big Ben lead the way the last time we check three weeks ago... but he's now lowered his TT down from 2.45 seconds to a measly 2.38!
- Only Tom Brady and Tua Tagovailoa are approaching that quickness with no other quarterback spending fewer than 2.60 seconds to throw per attempt.
- Limiting the sample to QBs with at least 100+ pass attempts so far (18 players), only four of them (Ben, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, and Cousins) are throwing quicker than 2.6 seconds.
- At the other end, four players are taking more than 3.00 seconds to launch bombs away. Winston is now done for the season, and Zach Wilson is/will miss time. Let the Hurts vs. Lamar battle for the Slowest Passer Belt begin, folks!
- Probably more because of randomness than anything, but it's interesting to find three of the four slowest players putting up 12.8+ FPPG weekly this deep into the season. Don't get to hyped about it, though, as Wilson is no. 1 in TT but with a low 7.5, and the other two slowest QBs after that Jalen/Lamar/Jameis trio are Geno and Darnold at 9.2 and 9.5 FPPG respectively...
- QBs averaging 18+ FPPG through W9 are throwing the ball with an average TT of 2.72 seconds (ranging from 2.50 to 2.88).
- QBs averaging <12 FPPG through W9 are throwing the ball with an average TT of 2.84 seconds (ranging from 2.61 to 3.10).
- All things considered, don't put much weight on this metric, as it is way more descriptive of past performance and style than predictive of future fantasy outings.
Completed/Intended Air Yards & Air Yards Differential
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 31% / 19% / 0%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Three more games in the books, but nothing changing at the top of the CAY leaderboard as Lamar gets to stay on top for another run. Jackson's mark went down from 9.1 CAY to 7.9, but he's still clearly leading the way by an 0.5 margin over rookies no. 2 Justin Fields and no. 3 Zach Wilson.
- Not happy enough with that, Lamar also leads the more important IAY leaderboard with 10.4 yards, also followed by Justin Fields on it. The difference here (and in the CAY table) is that Lamar has attempted 266 passes this season compared to Fields' 187 (and the next four QBs in the leaderboard, for that matter, as they top at 181 by Zach Wilson).
- No quarterback with 200+ pass attempts is even remotely close to Lamar Jackson's marks, with Mayfield having the second-highest IAY (8.8) and Stafford the second-highest CAY (6.7). Quite the distance, that is.
- While Matt Ryan has been able to escape the CAY/IAY hell (read: bottom of the leaderboards), Jared Goff is still the worst high-volume QB through W9: Goff holds the lowest marks at both leaderboards with 3.7 CAY and 6.3 IAY. Ugh.
- The change in those two's approaches that has kept Goff down and boosted Ryan up? Their aggressiveness, as Goff still sits at a second-lowest 10.7 AGG% while Ryan has gone all the way up to 15.3%.
- It's very interesting to find the Jets quarterbacks so distanced in aDOT. Zach Wilson is inside the top-5 with an 8.8 IAY mark while teammate Mike White has the lowest IAY at a measly 5.7 yards of aDOT.
- On the other hand, for example, Tua Tagovailoa and Jacoby Brissett have close-enough attempt numbers (157 to 202 respectively) and the exact same IAY mark at 7.3 yards downfield each.
- White is holding the highest AYD mark through W9, but that makes very much sense as he's also the one having the lowest aDOT among qualified QBs. Jimmy G's mark of -1.2 AYD is much more impressive/reliable/interesting as he has attempted 213 passes already while completing almost all of the yards he aims for--let alone the likes of Cousins/Ryan/Stafford who have all attempted 300+ passes and still boast AYUD marks above -1.54.
- There is a reason why AYD has a net-zero relationship with FPPG. Just check the names at the top and the bottom of such leaderboard.
- Lowest AYD QBs: Rodgers, Brady, Heinicke, Hurts, Mahomes, Lawrence, Darnold, Fields, Mayfield
- Highest AYD QBs: White, Garoppolo, Cousins, Ryan, Stafford, Kyler, Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson
Aggressiveness
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): negative-23%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- NGS defines "Aggressiveness" as the percentage of passes a quarterback throws into tight coverage, that is when a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the point of the catch/interception. Don't take this metric as a sign of "braveness" or anything like that, though. It relates more to reckless-passing and not-entirely-great route-running by the receivers than anything else.
- Slowly but surely, Justin Fields has been able to leave the basement and now ranks outside of the top-3 most-aggressive players this season. He's gone from 34.4% in Week 3 to a reasonable 19.3% through Week 9.
- No doubt about the two most-aggressive passers in the game these days. Both Burrow and Heinicke share the privilege of having AGG% marks above 20% and they're averaging them on 274+ passes each compared to the next three quarterbacks in the leaderboard, who have "only" between 70 and 187 pass attempts this season.
- Patrick Mahomes is still holding the lowest AGG% value among qualified QBs and is the lone owner of a below-10% mark at this point of the season (9.1%). Only Goff joins him with a below-11% mark so far.
- That probably tells you all you need to know about this metric... There is something to it, yes, but nothing remarkable. Mahomes is just finding super-open receivers and that's why he's got such a low aggressiveness mark, while Goff is at his low mark just because he's aiming for a really low 6.3 aDOT and completing passes a measly 3.7 yards down the field on safe/manageable passes.
- Quarterbacks producing 15+ FPPG so far this season: of a total of 14, 12 have below-17% AGG% marks so far, averaging a 14.4-percent in the metric.
- Quarterbacks producing <12 FPPG so far this season: of a total of 12, only three have below-14% AGG% marks so far, averaging a 16.0-percent in the metric.
- On a counting basis, Joe Burrow leads the way with 60 aggressive passes through Week 9. He's followed by Taylor Heinicke and Ben Roethlisberger, tied at second with 55 each.
- At the other end, only Mike White (11), Tyrod Taylor (13), and Trevor Siemian (13) have yet to throw 15 aggressive passes--though all of them have 88 or fewer attempts so far. Looking only at QBs with 200+ attempts, Davis Mills has the fewest aggressive ones at 28, followed by Kyler (29), and Jacoby Brissett (33).
Attempts & Yards & Y/A
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 68% / 75% / 54%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Not many big secrets are hidden in these three stats, am I right? The correlation is high with fantasy points basically because fantasy points rely mostly on pure yardage, and to rack up yards you have to throw the ball (the more the better, that is).
- Only four quarterbacks are attempting 40+ passes per game, led by Tom Brady (43). The other three are in for a tie at 40 pass attempts per game each (Mahomes, Herbert, Josh Allen). Of course, all of the four are putting up 17.9+ FPPG this season. Not bad for fantasy upside, this throw-the-rock thing.
- Through nine weeks of play, only two quarterbacks have been able to break the 2,000-yard barrier while attempting fewer than 260 passes: Kyler Murray (2,276 on 256) and Dak Prescott (2,045 on 255).
- Close but no cigar: Lamar Jackson with 2,209 but already 266 attempts, and Baker Mayfield with 1,917 on 225 attempts.
- Great news coming from Seattle as Russell Wilson is eligible to come back to the gridiron starting next weekend while facing the Green Bay Packers. Why? He leads the league in Y/A with a 9.6 mark that is absolutely dominating the competition, with Kyler Murray ranking second already down at 8.9 yards per attempt.
- Only three other quarterbacks have been able to qualify on the minimum 68 pass attempts while still posting Y/A marks of 8.5+ yards through Week 9 with Russ (125) and Baker (225) the only two below 256 attempts.
- Brissett and Trevor Siemian have, well, stunk when it comes to Y/A so far this season. Both of them are below 6.0 Y/A and although Trevor Siemian might still rebound up a bit (only 70 attempts) the truth is that Brissett is probably what he is given his bulky 202 attempts to date.
- Most concerning, though: rookie Trevor Lawrence, who has improved of late but is still one of only three quarterbacks with an average Y/A below 6.5 on a high 296 attempts. All other quarterbacks with 225+ attempts this season have already reached 1,900 passing yards while Lawrence is still stuck at 1,821.
Completion Percentage & xCOMP & COMP Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 37% / -2% / 50%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- The world of hypotheticals is cool, but what truly matters is what actually happens on the field. That is why the real completion percentage is the stat that matters, and why the expected rate doesn't cut a good deal for fantasy GMs.
- That being said, the difference between both marks (CPOE) is the strongest indicator of fantasy performance, which makes sense considering that those that "overperform" or play to higher-than-expected levels on average are the ones who more often than not put on high-octane performances.
- Back a few weeks we were all laughing at Justin Fields because his numbers were more than horrid after a few starts. Well, he's kind of gotten things more or less right of late. That cannot be said about Zach Wilson, who is the new walking-dud(e) with his -6.9 CPOE mark through Week 9 (six games played in his case, though). That's by far the worst underperformance of the year to date, 1.4 percentage points below second-worst Sam Darnold.
- That being said, Darnold's season has probably been worst than Wilson's. Darnold's -5.5 CPOE isn't that far away from Wilson's and his approach has been much "safer" than Wilson's, which means he should be doing way more than he's doing (he's aiming his passes a yard shorter than Wilson yet completing them for an average of 5.0 yards compared to Wilson's 7.1 CAY).
- No wonder Wilson has the lowest COMP% at a measly 57.5% only approached by the two Saints quarterbacks that got to qualify this week: Siemian at 58.6% and Winston at 59.0%. Now, let me tell you that at least Siemian is only underperforming to a -2.1 CPOE compared to Jameis' insane --5.3 CPOE mark. Winston, good for New Orleans (?) is done for the year, though.
- Although he was a 2018 draft pick, Mike White leads the NFL in COMP% while being a rookie with his 72.7 completion rate, overperforming the 71.7% xCOMP. No other freshman QB is completing more than 68% of his attempts (Mac Jones).
- Kyler Murray (72.2%) and Teddy Bridgewater (70.2%) are the only two quarterbacks through Week 9 completing passes at a 70%+ clip while already having attempted more than 125.
- Kyler and Teddy are overperforming their expectations by 6.9 and 5.4 percent as none of them was expected by the NGS model to complete more than 66% of the passes they have attempted.
- The actual King of the CPOE is Russell Wilson, whose actual completion rate sits at a ridiculous 7.3 above his expected mark.
- Quarterbacks averaging 16+ FPPG through Week 9: average 2.1 CPOE.
- Quarterbacks averaging <12 FPPG through Week 9:: average -1.2 CPOE.
- Quarterbacks overperforming their xCOMP% (positive CPOE marks): average 15.3 FPPG.
- Quarterbacks underperforming their xCOMP% (negative CPOE marks): average 12.5 FPPG.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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