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It's been a month since the last time we took a look at our beloved quarterbacks. Numbers are numbers, and numbers don't lie. You can twist them, but looking at them objectively, numbers say that no matter what, rushing the ball is almost always a worse option than passing it in today's game. That's why this column is the most important one you'll read today. It's time to tackle how quarterbacks have done through six weeks of play.
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 6 - The State Of The Passing Game
One of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players are air yards. The metrics around it are key to know who is really over-performing or under-performing among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with quarterback-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
As we'll be discussing quarterbacks and their passing stats, I will reduce the fantasy points per game averages to just those related to passing. That means that I have removed the rushing/receiving fantasy points the qualifying quarterbacks have logged during the season. I've called this metric paFP/G, which is to say passing Fantasy Points per Game.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 45 pass attempts.
Time to Throw
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 6%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Although there is some relation between TT and FPPG (paFP/G, I mean), the truth is that randomness is the calling card of this metric. Just look at the top and the bottom of the leaderboard six weeks into the season, and you'll see why--the contrast in names and talent in each cohort is staggering.
- Quarterbacks in the quickest-12 group are averaging 13.7+ FPPG, though the individual scores range from 4.8 (Trey Lance) to 20.5 (Josh Allen).
- Those in the slowest-12 group are yielding an average of 14.7 FPPG through Week 6, ranging from 3.2 to 24.1.
- To wild and random to trust as something predictive instead of descriptive, this stat.
- Big Ben, as already happened when we checked for the first time back after Week 3, is still doing it his own way. He's the quickest gunner in the NFL and it's not even close--nor encouraging, given Andy Dalton comes in second...
- At the other end of the leaderboard, it's funny to find Lamar Jackson as one of the slowest passers while surrounded by very shaky-player names there: Trey Lance and Zach Wilson (rookies), Jameis Winston (wildest QB ever), and Teddy Bridgewater (reliable yet inspiring).
- Limiting the sample to QBs with at least 175+ pass attempts so far (23 players), only two quarterbacks (Ben, Tom Brady) are throwing quicker than 2.6 seconds.
- On the other hand, seven QBs are holding on to the ball at least 2.9 seconds before looking for a receiver, clearly led by Lamar with a 0.11-second difference between him and next-slowest Teddy B.
- Roethlisberger's 13.4 FPPG isn't anything otherworldly, but given his kinda-outlier profile when it comes to super-quick TTs and his third-lowest TD-dependence to generate fantasy points it can't be said that he's been a true disaster.
- Speaking of touchdown-dependent players, Patrick Mahomes (55%) is the only quarterback whose touchdowns have accounted for more than 50% of the total FP he's gotten through Week 6. Dak Prescott is second at 50%.
- QBs averaging 18+ FPPG through W6 are throwing the ball with an average TT of 2.73 seconds.
- QBs averaging <13 FPPG through W3 are throwing the ball with an average TT of 2.79 seconds.
- All things considered, don't put much weight on this metric, as it is way more descriptive of past performance and style than predictive of future fantasy outings.
Completed/Intended Air Yards & Air Yards Differential
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 31% / 19% / 0%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Lamar is one of the top ball-holding quarterbacks so far, yes, but at least he's got a reason for it as his league-leading 10.1 IAY tops the leaderboard through six games.
- Lamar is waiting, launching bombs, and connecting for a rather high 8.1 CAY mark that also ranks as the highest in the NFL. Kudos to Lamar, who has leveled up for good in the passing side of things.
- The IAY leaderboard is led by the usual suspects, which is good to know as the metric definitely passes the eye test. Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, and Zach Wilson are bombs-away/don't-give-a-damn/still-wild rookies on perennial desperate-mode. Teddy B and Jameis have never met a pass they didn't like. And Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen are the closest things to a medieval cannon playing football.
- Looking at the broader picture, though, it's also true that Lamar has thrown the most interceptions among players aiming for 9.3+ IAY per attempt with 5 INTs against already in his log.
- Andy Dalton might or might not come back to starting games for the Bears. Whichever the case, he was sad through his four games played with a measly 4.2 IAY mark that not only ranks absolute-worst in the NFL but does so at a sky-high 2.0-yard distance from second-lowest Matt Ryan's 6.2. Yikes.
- Speaking of Ryan, it's quite surprising finding him there given his high volume of yards and oft-thrown bombs downfield. Missing Julio, Matty?
- Geno Smith, the freshest backup-QB forced into action, is keeping things safe so far with a low 6.3 IAY in his 49 pass attempts. We'll see if that changes, or DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett might be in fantasy trouble going forward and until Russ returns.
- Other than Dalton (injured and missing games), it's been Carson Wentz who has completed most of his IAY with a low AYD mark of -1.0 yards. Makes sense, considering he's aiming passes at just 6.7 yards down the field.
- Much more impressive are Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Stafford's marks so far, as all of them are throwing passes at an 8.5 IAY through Week 6 while completing them at a less than a 1.7-yard distance of those aDOT values.
- Maybe it's time for Trey Lance to stop bombing rocks away as he's falling 3.8 yards below his targets when it comes to actual completions... although right next to him there is a certain Aaron Rodgers, so it's not that such passer-profile is a bad one, I guess.
- There is a reason why AYD has a net-zero-relationship with FPPG. Just check the names at the top and the bottom of such leaderboard.
- Lowest AYD QBs: Lance, A-Rod, Brady, Hurts, Mayfield, Goff, and Darnold.
- Highest AYD QBs: Dalton, Wentz, Garoppolo, Cousins, Ryan, Daniel Jones, Kyler, and Burrow.
Aggressiveness
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): negative-23%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- NGS defines "Aggressiveness" as the percentage of passes a quarterback throws into tight coverage, that is when a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the point of the catch/interception. Don't take this metric as a sign of "braveness" or anything like that, though. It relates more to reckless-passing than anything else.
- A quick peek at the most aggressive passers gives you an idea of what we're dealing with here with another metric that surely passes the eye test.
- Fields started for the first time in Week 3 and through Week 6 he's been able to keep up his monster-aggressiveness as a rookie, Jones is a gunslinger trying to find receivers in an injury-ravaged unit, Heinicke is a demi-rookie (when it comes to starting games) and it's showing, Tannehill is a bomber playing along with deep-beasts Julio Jones and A.J. Brown, etc...
- As expected, Fields' 34%+ AGG came down to a more reasonable--yet still super high--24.2% mark three weeks later and six into the year. Now that he's reached that value, though, I have serious doubts it will come down much more than it already has.
- The combination of low passing volume (Fields is attempting just 17 passes per game), massive aggression (4+ such attempts per game), and the huge 9.7 aDOT has been a bomb for him and Bears receivers so far this year. Any Allen Robinson II owners out there? I feel for you...
- Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert are the only players throwing 17%+ passes into tight windows while still averaging 19+ FPPG through Week 6 among the seven QBs in that AGG% cohort.
- On the other hand, only Geno Smith (6.5) is putting up fewer than 12.5 FPPG while having an AGG% lower than 14 percent. Seven of the 10 players in that group are averaging 15+ FPPG.
- Pat Mahomes trailed the pack last time we checked at a measly 6.3 percent AGG% and he's still doing it, only at 8.3% nowadays. That's still the only mark below 10% league-wide.
- Passers with 200+ attempts so far this season are throwing an average of 14.7% of their passes into one-yard windows.
- Passers with <200 attempts are at a 15.6% rate of tight-window passes.
- Daniel Jones leads the league in total risky passes at 44 already. He's followed by Justin Herbert (42) and Taylor Heinicke (41) with no more QBs at 40+ such attempts.
- All of Dalton, Lance, and Geno are below 10 tight-window passes through Week 6, though none of them has attempted more than 50 passes so far. Tua is the "actual" trailer with only 11 aggressive passes in 78 attempts, followed by Garoppolo (17 in 118) and Jameis (17 in 125).
Attempts & Yards & Y/A
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 68% / 75% / 54%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Not many big secrets are hidden in these three stats, am I right? The correlation is high with fantasy points basically because fantasy points rely mostly on pure yardage, and to rack up yards you have to throw the ball (the more the better, that is).
- Only six quarterbacks are attempting 40+ passes per game, and five of them (all except Goff...) are averaging 17.5+ FPPG. Tip: chase volume-passers, folks.
- Shouts out to Tom Brady for leading the league with an unreasonable 45 pass attempts per game. Brady is one of only three QBs above 40 Att/G, the other two being Justin Herbert and Matt Ryan.
- All three have thrown at least 204 passes, but they're separated by a wild amount of total passing yards (from Brady's 2,064 to Herbert's 1,771 to Ryan's 1,332).
- Jameis Winston is the only true-starter to have played every game from the get-go while averaging fewer than 25 passes (23) per game through Week 6 (five games played).
- It's a shame Russell Wilson has gotten injured, as he was absolutely thriving with a league-leading 9.6 Y/A mark. It's now Matthew Stafford leading the way as the lone "active" QB with 1,750+ passing yards on 200 or fewer pass attempts thanks to his beastly 9.2 Y/A.
- No quarterback in the past 20 seasons has posted a 10+ Y/A while attempting at least 200 passes. Kurt Warner was close at 9.9, but he could get there when all was said and done (only played 11 games, though).
- Stafford could still be on pace for an all-time mark among QBs with at least 500 attempts, as no player has topped Matt Ryan's 9.3 Y/A from the 2016 season while meeting that threshold; Aaron Rodgers (2011) and Peyton Manning (2004) finished at 9.2 Y/A.
- Rookies are always going to struggle at first and go through some growing pains. That's why Fields, Wilson, Mills, Lawrence, and Mac Jones all have Y/A marks at or below 7.0 through six weeks of play.
- In the past 20 years, the lowest Y/A mark for a QB with 300+ passing attempts sits at 5.1 (Bruce Gradkowski, Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzpatrick) and none of those putting up had more than 3 years of experience in the NFL.
- As many as nine of the bottom-12 Y/A marks in the past 20 years among quarterbacks with 300+ attempts belong to either rookies or sophomores.
- This year's class seems to be safe for now, as Fields has the lowest mark at a "high" 6.2 Y/A compared to those near-5.0-yards marks from the past.
Completion Percentage & xCOMP & COMP Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 37% / -2% / 50%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- The world of hypotheticals is cool, but what truly matters is what actually happens on the field. That is why the real completion percentage is the stat that matters, and why the expected rate doesn't cut a good deal for fantasy GMs.
- That being said, the difference between both marks (CPOE) is the strongest indicator of fantasy performance, which makes sense considering that those that "overperform" or play to higher-than-expected levels on average are the ones who more often than not put on high-octane performances.
- It was all laughs last time we checked and found Justin Fields at the absolute bottom of the CPOE leaderboard with a ridiculous -20.5 mark. That's not the case anymore, because we have a new outlier right there in Trey Lance!
- Three rookies form the bottom-three of the leaderboard in Lance (-10.7), Zach Wilson (-7.3), and Fields (-6.1). Sam Darnold is the only QB keeping the bottom from being a rookie-loaded bottom-four as Trevor Lawrence ranks fifth-worst with a -3.5 himself.
- None of those four rookies has completed even 60% of their passes so far their season (Lawerence has the highest mark at a 59.7 COMP%), and Lance's 52.1% is the lowest mark easily edging Fields' by a substantial 1.4 percentage points.
- Moving on to better things... what about the Mightily Undefeated Cards and their QB Kyler Murray? More than a running back, isn't he? Murray has completed 8.6% more passes than the model says he should and he clearly leads the league on that front. Only two other QBs (Dak and now-injured Russ) have completed passes above expectations in 7%+ of their total attempts.
- Of course, all three of Murray/Wilson/Prescott have actual completion rates above 72%, with Teddy B falling just 1.8 percentage points short boasting a rather high overperformance of expectations too (6.3% CPOE).
- The gap between the top-4 and fifth-best overperformer (Aaron Rodgers; 4.7 CPOE) is 1.6 percentage points. That's virtually the same as the distance between Rodgers and no. 9 Kirk Cousins, and the distance between Cousins and no. 19 Jared Goff.
- Andy Dalton was so ridiculously afraid of screwing up that he has the highest actual COMP% of all qualifiers at 74%. Most impressive is the fact that his attempts yielded an xCOMP% of 73.2%, which makes total sense considering he was throwing passes just 4.2 yards down the field and completing them at an average of just 4.0 yards...
- Obviously, no player in the latest leaderboard has a xCOMP% above 69 percent, with Matt Ryan and Pat Mahomes having similar 68.5 and 68.4 marks. They are the only two QBs at 68%+ through Week 6.
- More impressive is Matthew Staffords' combined passer profile. He has a quite-high 67.9 xCOMP% but he's aiming for targets 9.1 yards down the field. No other QB with an xCOMP% of 65%+ is launching the ball further on a per-attempt basis (Russell Wilson is at 64.7% with a 9.1 IAY mark).
- Of the 14 quarterbacks posting FPPG marks of 16+ through Week 6, all but one (Justin Herbert) are overperforming their xCOMP. Herbert's -0.4 mark is the only negative one in that group, while all other QBs in it have COMP marks of 0.6+ percentage points above their xCOMP values.
- On the other hand, of players averaging <13 FPPG so far, only Baker Mayfield (2.5) and Mac Jones (4.6) are on the positive side of CPOE while having at least 100+ attempts.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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