RADIO
Things finally got serious. If you're here, it's only because of one of two reasons: 1) you have followed the series all along and want to keep reading just so you don't feel bad with yourself, or 2) you won your first round of the fantasy playoffs and are still on the lookout for the smallest of tidbits that can help you gain an edge over your next opponent and make it to the final. No matter what, I'm here to help you both get entertained and win your matchups. You are limited now with only two weeks to go. Trades are a non-factor. The waiver wire is drained of talent, but there are still things to know that can help you make the decision that ultimately gets you that coveted W and gets you closer to the trophy in Week 16.
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 15 - The State Of The Passing Game
One of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players is Air Yards. The metrics around it are key to know who is really overperforming or underperforming among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with quarterback-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
As we'll be discussing quarterbacks and their passing stats, I will reduce the fantasy points per game averages to just those related to passing. That means that I have removed the rushing/receiving fantasy points the qualifying quarterbacks have logged during the season. I've called this metric paFP/G, which is to say passing Fantasy Points per Game.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 113 pass attempts.
Time to Throw
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 6%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Although there is some relation between TT and FPPG (paFP/G, I mean), the truth is that randomness is the calling card of this metric. Just look at the top and the bottom of the leaderboard 15 weeks into the season, and you'll see why.
- Now, that said, the truth is that the quarterbacks taking the most time to throw the rock are pretty much all wild players not really established in the league and/or with deep flaws, other than Lamar Jackson, obviously.
- There are 12 qualified players who are throwing after 2.85+ seconds while averaging a combined 11.6 FPPG on the season. On the other hand, the top-12 quickest throwers (all below 2.70 seconds) are putting up a very similar 12.0 FPPG average.
- With Colt McCoy out of the leaderboard missing the pass-attempt threshold, we're back at Ben Roethlisberger being the quickest quarterback to get rid of the ball on average, taking just 2.39 seconds per snap. Nobody is below 2.49 other than Big Ben.
- Quick doesn't mean bad, mind you. Ben ranks last in TT, but other top-tier QBs such as Tom Brady, Tua, Ryan Hill, and Aaron Rodgers are also among the top-10 quickest throwers.
- On the other hand, three quarterbacks have averages of 3.0+ seconds per pass, though Jameis Winston is done for the year and Hurts/Wilson have missed time of late. In other words, none of them has more than 351 attempts compared to the league-leading 602 tosses by Brady.
- Quarterbacks with 20+ touchdowns so far are averaging 2.74 seconds per throw with only three of them at a 2.80+ mark (Josh Allen and Carson Wentz, and Kyler Murray).
- Quarterbacks with 10 or fewer TDs (min. 300 attempts) are taking a slightly higher 2.77 seconds per throw with Cam Newton having the quickest mark by a mile at 2.49 seconds.
- QBs averaging 15+ FPPG through W15 are throwing the ball with an average TT of 2.74 seconds.
- QBs averaging <15 FPPG through W15 are throwing the ball with an average TT of 2.78 seconds.
- All things considered, don't put much weight on this metric, as it is way more descriptive of past performance and style than predictive of future fantasy outings.
Completed/Intended Air Yards & Air Yards Differential
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 31% / 19% / 0%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- The last time we checked, Justin Fields had overtaken Lamar as the leader in the IAY leaderboard. That two-man run has now welcomed a third person through W15: league-leader Russell Wilson.
- The trio of Wilson, Fields, and Lamar is definitely on its own league when it comes to IAY, with no other player above a 9.1 aDOT. There is a clear difference between one of these and the other two: Wilson has tossed just 4 INT compared to Lamar's 13 and Fields' 10.
- Mike White, though throwing only 132 passes for the Jets in relief of Zach Wilson this season, is the clearest safety-first quarterback of the year. No other QB is really close to his aDOT with Goff ranking second already up at 6.6 compared to White's 6.2.
- Down here, both White and Goff have 8 INT each, and those following them are really close to those numbers with 4 INT (Newton), 6 (Dalton), and Tua (8) ranking right above them.
- Lamar and Fields actually edge Wilson by a hair when it comes to their combined CAY+IAY. The first two have a 16.6 mark compared to Wilson's 16.5 one.
- As was the case before, no other player is even remotely close to that average with Winston's 15.5 combined yards being the closest to it, already one full yard down below Russell Wilson.
- Goff and White are, once more, trailers in the CAY+IAY department with the only two such marks below 11.7 yards, almost a full yard below that with similar 10.8 marks each.
- Jared Goff is, actually, the quarterback completing passes for the fewer yards through W15. He's doing so for a measly 4.2 YPA, which not even Mike Glennon (4.3) is pulling off! Four more QBs on top of those two are below 5.0 CAY marks on average through 15 weeks of play.
- Lowest AYD QBs: Glennon, Hurts, Wilson, Rodgers, Lawrence, Heinicke, Darnold, Carr, Brady.
- Highest AYD QBs: Matt Ryan, Garoppolo, Mike White, Newton, Tua, Daniel Jones, Cousins, Siemian, Herbert.
Aggressiveness
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): negative-23%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- NGS defines "Aggressiveness" as the percentage of passes a quarterback throws into tight coverage, that is when a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the point of the catch/interception. Don't take this metric as a sign of "braveness" or anything like that, though. It relates more to reckless-passing than anything else.
- A lot of stuff going on atop the leaderboard. Tua Tagovailoa and Ben Roethlisberger are tied for the AGG% lead with both tossing 19.2% of their passes into tight windows. Roethlisberger edges Tua on a counting basis, though, as he has 92 aggressive passes compared to Tua's 58.
- The Dolphins wideouts surely can't separate, as both Tua and Brissett have top-five marks on the season. This has definitely not to do with their quarterback styles, but rather a lack of talent from the receivers when it comes to getting open.
- On the other side of the equation, the Bears have featured both Fields and Dalton and they can't be more different in terms of their aggressiveness, with Fields clocking in at 17% and Dalton at a measly 9.8%.
- As I always remark, being aggressive (per NGS definition) doesn't mean being good or bad. It just means a high amount of passes are thrown into tight windows, which could work (reception) or not (missed pass).
- That's precisely why Patrick Mahomes has the lowest AGG% mark in the NFL. Chiefs receivers are good at getting open, and Mahomes is a beast. As simple as that, folks.
- What about Dalton's second-lowest AGG% and his not-so-Mahome-ish results? Well, it means no long/risky throws from Dalton, who hasn't risked the biscuit and has thrown safe/open/non-aggressive tosses every time he's been out there.
- Roethlisberger's 92 aggressive passes rank second league-wide to Justin Herbert's 93 (though Herb has attempted 62 more passes). No other quarterback is even at 85, as Tom Brady ranks third with 84 risky biscuits.
- On the other end, among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts, Zach Wilson has the fewest aggressive passes (41) followed by three players with 42 each: Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, and Jacoby Brissett.
Attempts & Yards & Y/A
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 68% / 75% / 54%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Not many big secrets are hidden in these three stats, am I right? The correlation is high with fantasy points basically because fantasy points rely mostly on pure yardage, and to rack up yards you have to throw the ball (the more the better, that is).
- While up to three quarterbacks were attempting 40+ passes per game the last time we checked (W12), it's now one and only one doing so: Infinite GOAT Tom Brady with 43 a pop. Brady also leads the league in total passing yards after having surrendered that accolade to Derek Carr three weeks ago when he checked for the last time.
- Mahomes and Herbert, who have fallen from that 40-group of one, are now at 39 tosses per game each through 14 games played each.
- Sam Darnold has the highest per-game passing attempts (34) while having played the fewer games (9) and attempted the fewer passes (306) among everybody not named Trevor Siemian. The Saints backup, though, is only attempting 29 per game.
- Although all of Garoppolo, Kyler, and Burrow have seen a downtick (reasonable) in their Y/A numbers, all of them are at 8.4+ led by Jimmy G's 8.5 mark through Week 15.
- Shout out to Joe B, though, as he's attempted 61 more passes through the season than the other two, which pretty much amounts to two more games over the year to this date (in fact, Burrow has played 14 to Garoppolo's 13 and Murray's 11).
- Russell Wilson was good enough in the past three weeks to keep his Y/A at 8.0+, yet he's only thrown the ball 287 times this season. Wilson leads all quarterbacks with <300 attempts this season in Y/A, with Winston (7.3) and Mike White (7.2) also in that low-volume top-3.
- Not a single qualified quarterback has avoided the fate of throwing at least one interception this season, and that includes borderline-qualifying Tyler Huntley. The Ravens backup has appeared in six games and attempted 125 passes for 3 TDs against 1 INT.
- Aaron Rodgers (who is averaging a top-3 19.3 passing FPPG) has the largest TD:INT ratio at 7.5 scores per interception. That's absolutely ridiculous, as the second-best mark belongs to Kirk Cousins and he's already down at a 4.8 (!) mark.
- Rodgers has 30 TDs and 4 INTs on the year. No other quarterback with 4 or fewer interceptions through W15 has tossed more than 16 TDs (Wilson), which means Rodgers is virtually lapping the field while keeping interceptions totally at bay.
- Six quarterbacks qualified while having thrown more picks than touchdowns: Mike Glennon, Zach Wilson, Mike White, Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Fields. Ugh.
Completion Percentage & xCOMP & COMP Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 37% / -2% / 50%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- The world of hypotheticals is cool, but what truly matters is what actually happens on the field. That is why the real completion percentage is the stat that matters, and why the expected rate doesn't cut a good deal for fantasy GMs.
- That being said, the difference between both marks (CPOE) is the strongest indicator of fantasy performance, which makes sense considering those that "overperform" or play to higher-than-expected levels on average are the ones who more often than not put on high-octane performances.
- Joey B leading the way 15 weeks into the season, keeping up the lone CPOE above 4.5 percent this deep into the year. Kyler Murray, currently at 4.5, is the other hyper-over-performer of the 2021 season with no other quarterback above 3.1 percent completions over their expectations.
- Tua Tagovailoa ranks third at that 3.1 CPOE, the only QB along with Joe/Kyler who is currently completing 3%+ of their expected rates.
- All of the above comes with the little asterisk of two of those quarterbacks (Kyler and Tua) having tossed 361 or fewer passes through the year. That said, Burrow's mark is real as hell, as he's attempted 435 passes compared to, say, Aaron Rodgers' 441 (with a 2.9 CPOE).
- Tua has the highest completion rate at 69.9%, which means nobody is above 70% even on a super-small sample of throws (Tyler Huntley, with just 125 passing attempts, has completed 68.8% of those throws). Kyler Murray, also on a "lower" throwing volume (361 attempts) can't be closer to Tua with a mark of 69.8% himself.
- Mike Glennon and Cam Newton (ugh) are the only two quarterbacks completing fewer than 55% passes this season, which truly sucks. Seven more QBs completed fewer than 60% of their tosses through W15.
- Dalton has been so scared of throwing the ball into tasty places that his xCOMP% leads the league at 69.3%. No other quarterback is above 69% with Tom Brady ranking second at 68.8 percent and Cam Newton at 68.5%.
- No qualified QB has been expected to complete fewer than 60% of their passes, with Jalen Hurts at a league-lowest 60.6% through his 12 games played with 351 attempts to date. Three more players in the 61-to-62-percent clip: Justin Fields, Mike Glennon, and Trevor Siemian.
- While the top of the CPOE leaderboard is showing rather high marks (mostly Burrow's and Kyler's), the truth is that the bottom has gone absolutely insane.
- Cam Newton and Zach Wilson are both at minus-10 CPOE. That's as wild as it comes, with Newton trailing everybody at an unreasonable minus-13.7 percent. He should be completing 68.5% of his passes... but he's connecting at a measly 54.9% clip. Shees.
- Two more absolutely disastrous QBs in Glennon and now-freed-from-Meyer Lawrence with minus-6.8 and minus-7.8 marks.
- Three quarterbacks in the minus-5 to minus-6 percent clip, those being Dalton, Winston, and Darnold.
- In other words, the bottom is the bottom for a reason, and no real true bona fide top-tier quarterback is sitting down there. Patrick Mahomes is the first one to appear on the bottom half of the leaderboard, with a minus-2.7 CPOE but still completing 65.6% of his passes (top-14 mark among QBs with 425+ attempts).
- The average FPPG of quarterbacks with positive CPOE comes out at 14.4 fantasy points (0.4 FP higher than last time).
- The average FPPG of quarterbacks with negative CPOE comes out at 11.6 fantasy points (0.9 FP lower).
- QBs with 15+ FPPG are averaging a 1.3 CPOE.
- QBs with <12 FPPG are averaging a -3.9 CPOE.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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