NextGen Stats - Wide Receiver/Tight End Breakdowns and Takeaways

I can't believe it. Months of waiting, painful empty weekends, and now a quarter of the NFL season is suddenly gone! But I'm not going to lie, I love the moment when the whistle blows to end the week on Monday nights. It is just the confirmation that we have another full round of data in our hands, and for a nerd like me, that's great. As a reader that likes this type of content, you might feel the same.

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!

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Week 4 - TE/WR Air Yards Breakdown - NextGenStats

If you remember the introductory post to the series, you already know Air Yards tells us the vertical yards on a pass attempt from the line of scrimmage to the point where the ball was caught by the receiver (or the catch failed to be completed.) I will be using mainly two metrics here: Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY), and %Share of Team's Air Yards (TAY%). TAY tells us how many air yards a receiver is thrown per target. TAY% measures the percentage of Air Yards a receiver was thrown at over the sum of his team's total Air Yards.

With four weeks in the books, we can (at least moderately) say that we have enough data to assess what and what not is going on at the wide receiver and tight end positions. This doesn't mean Air Yard values are already stabilized, not close to it, but it is highly probable that what we see in Weeks 1-4 stays mostly the same at least in the short-to-mid-term future, with high chances of staying on similar levels for the full season.

Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with receiver fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.

So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 10 targets for both WR and TE.

 

Cushion / Separation

Correlation with Fantasy Points: negative-9% / 8%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• In a flip of what we saw over the full 2019 season, the SEP and the FP/G posted through four weeks of play correlate positively. Last season that wasn't the case, but so far (albeit on a very small sample of just four games) we're seeing the opposite to what happened last year. Don't get too high on it, as the relationship amounts to a virtually insignificant 9%...
• Before we get deeper, let's give a shout-out to Demarcus Robinson for holding onto the highest SEP mark for another week, even with a low number of targets (11, min. set at 10 for W4) through four games. He's almost a full yard ahead of no. 2 Robert Tonyan and that's the same distance as there is between Tonyan and no. 7 George Kittle.
• As always, plenty of tight ends made it to the top of the leaderboard. They get targeted mostly when they're open, and that's why five of the top 11 players in SEP play at that position. That doesn't mean they aren't all good enough to get separation on their own merits instead of always being left open by defenses, though (looking at you, Kittle).

• There are 135 qualified WR/TEs in this week's rundown. Grouped by team, Kansas City is the squad with the highest SEP on average (3.9) yards, followed by Seattle (3.5) and Arizona (3.4).
• On the other end of the SEP leaderboard, the Dolphins trail every other squad on average SEP among their receivers (2.0), with Chicago at 2.3 and Detroit at 2.3. Don't hate on Fitzpatrick, Trubisky, or Foles: those receiving corps are making things tough as nails for them all to complete passes on such tight spaces.
• As is often the case, and as the first point of this section highlights, high or low SEP marks don't translate into more or fewer fantasy points. Green Bay receivers have the highest PPG average at 16.6 with a SEP of 3.3 but are followed by Minnesota's (16.5 PPG) with a SEP of 2.5...

• While receivers can control their separation averages, they can't directly affect the cushion defenders give them. Although virtually not related to fantasy points in any way, the relationship is negative: more cushion, fewer PPG.
• At the top of the leaderboard, your usual suspects: burners in the shape of K.J. Hamler (8.7 CUSH) and DeSean Jackson (8.1). More interesting, though, are the cases of elite players like DeAndre Hopkins (7.7) and Amari Cooper (7.4), as they can do it all and the cushion they are given is more related to their all-around abilities rather than just their deep-route running.
• Through Week 4, only 28 receivers are averaging 15+ PPG. Of those, only Hopkins, Cooper, and Adam Thielen have CUSH marks above 6.7 (all 7.3+).
• At the same time, only five players are averaging 15+ PPG while being given fewer than 5.0 yards of CUSH (Allen Robinson II, Robert Tonyan, Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, and DK Metcalf).
• Breakdown by teams: Denver (6.9), Carolina (6.8), and the Jets (6.5) receivers are given the largest CUSH on the league; Indianapolis (4.9), Green Bay (5.0), and Cleveland (5.0) the smallest. Not a coincidence the leading two teams have K.J. Hamler/Tim Patrick/Robby Anderson, while the trailing two feature the likes of Mo Alie-Cox/Robert Tonyan/Michael Pittman Jr.

• As a curiosity: A.J. Green as the worst combined CUSH+SEP mark at just 6.0 yards. Defenders have closed on him, and he has been absolutely terrible at getting separation at the point of the catch. Forgettable season by the veteran on his comeback year.

 

Targeted Air Yards / % Share of Team's Air Yards

Correlation with Fantasy Points: 6% / 46%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Opportunity trumps everything in fantasy football, and it can be seen in the highly related link between the percentage of yards a team/QB throws toward a player and the fantasy point he scores.
• This is made clear by the table above, which I have sorted by Targeted Air Yards% (among teammates). Virtually every player (except MVS) shown at the top of the table (and in fact, every player with a TAY% higher than 34%) is averaging double-digit fantasy points through Week 4.
• Oh, and this has yet to catch up in terms of correlation with fantasy points: last season the relationship ended at a positive 71% between TAY% and PPG, so we're still way behind that mark.

• While Justin Jefferson has had a breakout during the past two weeks, he's miles away from reaching Adam Thielen's league-leading TAY% of 49.1 percent. Thielen is the only player getting more than 40% of his team's AY while keeping up a catch rate above 64%.
• Speaking of Thielen, Minnesota's qualified receivers also have the highest TAY average of all teams at 14.9. Not only that, but the distance with the second-highest team (Denver, 12.2 TAY) is as big as that between Denver and no. 19 (!) Jacksonville (9.5 TAY).
• All five Kansas City's qualified receivers (min. 10 targets) make up for 100% of the team's TAY%. They are the only team to reach that full percentage. Seattle's four players sit second at 95%, with Dallas (five players) and Tampa Bay (six) at 94%.
• At the other end, Las Vegas' qualified receivers (three players, min. 10 targets) only account for 55.9% of the team TAY, followed by Tennessee (three) at 61.5% and the Jets (four) at 67.2%.
• Those last two points highlight the difference between established offenses that always operate on the same terms and use the same players and squads that have suffered injuries and have needed to share the ball between many more players to start the year.

• The relationship between aDOT (TAY) and fantasy points is almost nonexistent, but at least there is some positive correlation there. Not much, though, as six players have 16.8+ TAY marks and three of them are averaging 10+ PPG while the other three are below that mark...
• Marquise Brown has the highest TAY (17.7) and also the third-highest TAY% (44.9) among all qualified players. He's both a deep threat and the most sought-after player by Lamar Jackson.
• In a completely opposite situation, Michael Gallup ranks second in TAY (17.4) but his TAY% among Cowboys only gets to 26.4%. I mean, that's the secondary effect of playing in such a loaded offense that features all of Gallup, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott...
• Only five of 35 qualified tight ends currently have aDOT marks above 10.0 yards per target. Of those, just two (Mark Andrews and Mike Gesicki) hold those values while having been targeted 20+ times through four games.
• Even with a paltry 5.8 TAY Darren Waller has gathered 25.5 of Las Vegas' TAY%. Obviously, that's because he's been targeted a monster 40 times already, while no other tight end is over 33 targets (Kelce) in four games combined.

• After his incredible Week 4 performance, George Kittle leads all WR/TEs in PPG with 24.7. Even with that, he only has a TAY% in San Francisco of 15.2%. Davante Adams is in a similar situation, having just 14.95% of Green Bay's TAY%. The common denominator: both have missed time, lowering their shares as they couldn't rack up AY while their teammates did.
• Other than those two outliers, every WR/TE averaging 18+ PPG currently holds a TAY% of at least 20%. Again, the correlation is just at 41% through four games, while last season it ended at 71%, so expect the likes of Justin Jefferson, Darren Waller, Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, or Mike Evans (all with TAY% above 20% already) to improve their PPG averages through the next few weeks.

 

Receptions / Targets / Catch% / Touchdowns

Correlation with Fantasy Points: 74% / 62% / 35% / 80%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Obviously, receptions trump targets in terms of fantasy-point production (in PPR formats, that is) because well, they hand out actual fantasy points. That's why 14 of 16 (87.5%) players with 20+ receptions are averaging 16+ PPG through four weeks of play.
• Up to 37 receivers have logged between 15 and 19 receptions but only eight of them (21.6%) are averaging 15+ PPG.
• All but four of 28 players averaging 15+ PPG have been targeted 20+ times. The four with fewer than 20 targets still putting up those PPG: DJ Chark Jr., JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Lazard, and Kenny Golladay (all missed time, which if it hadn't happened would have fostered them to the 20+ target group).

• With 40 targets in 4 games, Darren Waller is the only tight end averaging 10+ per game, which tells you everything you need to know about Las Vegas' offense. Kelce is second at 33 with Engram coming in third with 30.
• Five wideouts with 40+ targets, but with widely varying receiving numbers: only Cooper and Hopkins have catch rates above 65% while Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, and Calvin Ridley are at or below that mark.
• Of the wide receivers with those 40+ targets through four games, expect some positive regression on the touchdown department for the top three as they only have one TD on the year. Just on pure volume, the scores will come without a doubt.

• Just one player holding onto the perfect 100% catch rate through four weeks while having 10+ targets: Willie Snead IV, 10-for-10. His PPG average: a putrid 6.9...
• Actual impressive catch rates: Kittle 95% (19-for-20, 24.7 PPG), DJ Chark Jr. 93.8% (15-for-16, 17.8), Davante 85% (17-for-20, 24.1), and Hopkins 84.8% (39-for-46, 21.2).
• One thing is not like the others in the chart above: A.J. Green has 33 targets... and just 14 catches for a catch rate of 42.4% and an average of 6.5 PPG. Stinker of a season so far for him, being the only player with more than 28 targets and a catch rate below 51%.

• Shouts out to Mike Evans and Robert Tonyan (what) for being the only players with more than a touchdown per game through four weeks. Evans, I can understand, but Tonyan has overperformed as hell with a TD rate of 35.7% per target (5 in just 14 targets, three scores in Week 4 alone).
• Positive touchdown-regression tracker: Green, D.J. Moore, Edelman, and Engram have 30+ targets and no scores. Cooper, Allen, Hopkins, and Waller have 40+ (!) targets and just one TD.
• Negative touchdown-regression tracker: Tonyan, Andrews, Jonnu Smith, JuJu, Chark, and Higbee all have 3+ TDs on 20 or fewer targets.

 

Yards / "Total" Yards (Air Yds + YAC) / "Air" Yards

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2019 season): 80% / 70% / negative-8%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Nothing surprising here, as receiving yardage is factored into the calculation of fantasy points without much hard-math involved. Leaders in yardage average the most fantasy points, with touchdowns and receptions just being a weekly bonus to their tallies.
• The race is hot at the top: three players with 400+ receiving yards already and all inside a two-yard gap. Oh, and it is not that no. 4 Hopkins is far from them with 397 himself...
• Also: Kelce is the most ridiculous thing to grace a gridiron. That's it. That's the take.
• Counting stats are nice, but what if we factor targets in? That changes the picture, vastly. Among receivers with 20+ targets, Justin Jefferson has the highest Y/T at 17.4 followed by DK Metcalf (ridiculous season), Will Fuller V, and Scotty Miller. Shouts out to the three non-DK guys for exploiting the game with nobody expecting it!
• Here's to hope David Moore, Mo Alie-Cox, Andy Isabella, Willie Snead IV, and Josh Reynolds see more targets down the road. All of them are averaging 11.0+ Y/T but none has been targeted more than 13 times this season.

• The Air Yards leaderboard is always bonkers. Four players with 264+ air yards through four weeks, but widely varying percentages in terms of how many of their total yards have come through the actual air: from Calvin Ridley's 85.4% to Amari Cooper's 65.3%.
• Of 18 receivers with at least 200 air yards, only two (Justin Jefferson and DeAndre Hopkins) have YAC% of 35%+. That's the sweet spot: reliable targets downfield with the bonus upside after the catch.
• Kudos to Isaiah Wright for pulling off the negative-AY feat with minus-5 air yards and 44 total yards on the season, generating 111% of his yardage after the catch. LOL
• The most airborne of players: Kenny Stills with only 1.1 percent YAC%, followed by Preston Williams (9 percent) and K.J. Hamler (11.5). Adam Thielen is fourth (13.4) but it is not that he's needed to catch-and-run a lot to generate fantasy points as Kirk Cousins has thrown his way in the end zone a lot and he already has 4 TDs through four games.

 

Yards After Catch / Expected YAC / YAC Above Expectation

Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2019 season): 18% / 8% / 24%

Leaders and Trailers: 

Leaderboard Notes:

• Even though it's been four weeks already, I would advise not getting too lost in this data for the time being. Things will take a little bit more to stabilize as more reps are factored into the stat lines.
• Jamison Crowder keeps being the no. 1 player over expectations, but as you know that is still the secondary effect of his Week 1 reception for a touchdown that absolutely skewed his +/- as he dodged the defense and added a ton of yards after the catch in a single play, boosting his overperformance.
• Someone I trust more, though, is no. 2 Justin Jefferson. I was hesitant after his Week 3 performance, but he doubled down on it in Week 4, and with back-to-back great showcases I'm getting every Jefferson share I can put my hands on. Kid's legit, folks.
• All players with a plus/minus of 2.5+ currently averaging 14+ PPG, with four of them almost at 18+. Bet on overachievers, they have the ability in them.

• Only Davante Adams (-0.1) and Tyler Lockett (-0.3) have negative YACOE (+/-) while still averaging 20+ PPG.
• At the other end, though, among the worst receivers on average PPG (below 4.6) only three (Deonte Harris, Van Jefferson, and Demarcus Robinson have positive YACOE marks. Those are middling names that have been targeted just 10 or 11 times, though.
• Looking at receivers with at least 20 targets so far, we find 73 qualified players. Of those 73, 24 are averaging negative YACOE and are averaging 12.4 PPG. The remaining 49 have positive YACOE marks and are averaging 13.3 PPG.
• In the same group of 73, there are 14 players at-or-below -0.5 YACOE and they are averaging 12.1 PPG. There are 21 players at-or-above 1.0 YACOE and they are averaging 13.5 PPG. The distance between both groups will keep rising, as the correlation should go up as we get deeper into the season (judging by 2019 stats).

That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!

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