ADP Variations: NFFC Overvalued and Undervalued

As you prepare for each draft, multiple factors are incorporated into your analysis of every selection. In addition to considering the specifics of your league’s scoring and lineup composition, your decision-making process can involve researching data, reviewing film, studying the tendencies of offensive decision-makers, and generating projections for each performer.

Your draft planning will also include an ongoing evaluation of the average draft positions (ADPs) for each player. But even though ADPs remain essential components in your draft preparations, they are not always the consummate blueprint for an accurate value of each performer. Numerous situations can emerge during the offseason that impact the roles of specific players. But these developments are not always reflected by an immediate rise or drop in their draft positions.

The team at RotoBaller is pinpointing variations in draft positions by assembling a series of articles on players that are being overvalued and undervalued in current drafts. That includes this breakdown of players in Best-Ball leagues using NFFC drafts as the primary resource. The latest ADPs from other sites will also be interspersed as additional data in this assessment of player values.

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Quarterback - Undervalued 

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions 

QB13/ADP 109

Stafford was entrenched among the league leaders in multiple passing categories during the first half of 2019. However, a back issue sidelined him from Weeks 10-17 which forced a premature conclusion to his promising season. Stafford was sixth in scoring and fourth in passing yardage from Weeks 1-9 (2,499/312.4 per game), had constructed a favorable 19-5 touchdown to interception ratio, and was averaging a career-best 8.6 yards per attempt. His production soared from Weeks 7-9 (1,112 yards/10 touchdowns), and he had already connected with Kenny Golladay on 62 passes for 630 yards and seven touchdowns during his first eight matchups.

Weeks 1-9	Comps	Atts	Yards	TDs	20+	QBR
Philip Rivers	223	333	2609	12	34	93.8
Tom Brady	230	355	2536	14	38	93.1
Russell Wilson	200	293	2505	22	37	118.2
Matthew Stafford	187	291	2499	19	41	106
Aaron Rodgers	208	318	2485	17	34	104.4
Deshaun Watson	212	302	2432	18	29	107.1
Jameis Winston	182	307	2407	16	30	85.2
Dak Prescott	190	273	2380	15	31	102.5
Jared Goff	192	314	2367	11	34	86.8
Gardner Minshew	188	307	2285	13	33	92.8
Andy Dalton	204	338	2252	9	29	79.2
Kyler Murray	203	316	2229	9	30	89.2
Kirk Cousins	174	253	2217	16	34	112
Patrick Mahomes	157	241	2180	15	31	113.1
Matt Ryan	202	285	2170	15	27	98.7
Carson Wentz	190	303	2060	15	27	93.7

 

Quarterback - Overvalued

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

QB12/ADP 108

Rodgers has thrown for nearly 47,000 yards (46,946) and 364 touchdowns while accumulating an enormous list of accomplishments during his 15-seasons. However, he is encountering obstacles that have been imposed by his own organization which will prevent him from attaining the numbers that have been customary during his career.

Rodgers’ overall production during 2019 was hardly problematic, as he eclipsed 4,000 yards, tied for eighth in touchdowns (26), and finished at QB11 in scoring. But Green Bay's pass play percentage dropped from a league-high 67.4% in 2018 to just 17^th last season (59.7%). Rodgers was also an anemic 24th in scoring from Weeks 9-17 while finishing just 20th in yardage (1,678), and 17h in completions (168) during those matchups.

He also did not have a wide receiver finish among the top 68 in scoring beyond Davante Adams. However, general manager Brian Gutekunst and head coach Matt LaFleur oversaw a free agency period that only involved one uninspiring signing at the position (Devin Funchess). The tandem also prioritized adding quarterback Jordan Love, running back A.J. Dillon, and seven other players during the draft, while neglecting their glaring need at wide receiver throughout the entire process.

The 36-year old Rodgers maintains the advantage of locating Adams, who is a strong candidate to lead all receivers in targets. But the Packers’ failure to address their lack of depth at wide receiver will force him to contend with an alarming shortage of weaponry beyond the three-time Pro Bowler. This massive deficiency is enhanced by Green Bay’s limitations at tight end, as Rodgers appears destined to operate with Jace Sternberger as his TE1.

Rodgers is being selected before other quarterbacks who present greater potential for production this season, including Stafford and Daniel Jones. His ADP rises to 92 in Fantasy Pros' consensus of Best Ball rankings, although he still resides at QB12. That is hard to justify considering the systematic deterioration of his receiving options. This should motivate owners to avoid Rodgers with the same resolve that the Packers displayed when failing to upgrade their receiving arsenal.

 

Running Back - Undervalued

Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills

RB45/ADP 115

Only five rushers generated more yards on the ground from Weeks 9-15 than Devin Singletary (557), while he also led Buffalo’s backfield with 3.9 targets per game from Weeks 8-17. This encouraging close to his rookie season fueled a rise in his stock during the early months of 2020. His ADP surged when general manager Brandon Beane remained non-committal about Frank Gore’s future and soared to 26 after the Bills refrained from adding another back in free agency.

But the third-round selection of Moss during the NFL Draft instantly transformed the landscape of Buffalo’s backfield. It also placed a 220-pound barricade in Singletary's short-lived path toward a feature back role.

Singletary’s ADP has plunged to 51 (RB26) since the Bills secured Moss, while the rookie’s ADP has climbed from 132 to 115 during the past three months. This still leaves Moss available for a full five rounds after Singletary is being selected. But the newcomer will bring a degree of physicality to the ground game that should keep him highly involved within the distribution of touches. This is also the case with his ability to accrue yards after contact.

2019 YAC per carry (min. 100 carries)

1. Travis Etienne: 5.05
2. Jerrion Ealy: 4.63
3. Wesley Kennedy: 4.41
4. Journey Brown: 4.40
5. Javon Leake: 4.20
6. Zack Moss: 4.12
7. Marvin Kinsey: 4.12
8. Trey Ragas: 4.01
9. Tony Jones: 4.00
10. Javonte Williams: 3.93

— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) July 17, 2020

Moss exceeded 1,000 rushing yards during each of his final three seasons at Utah, assembled 38 touchdowns, and collected 66 receptions for 685 yards. He possesses the power to confiscate a sizable percentage of carries and should be entrusted with opportunities near the goal line. Gore led the Bills in red zone carries last season (26/36.6%). Josh Allen was second (22/30.9%), while Singletary finished third behind both teammates (18/25,35%). Moss should match or surpass the number of attempts that were previously designated for Gore, while Singletary will trail Moss and Allen in this category.

The elusive Singletary will maintain a respectable workload. But he could easily be allotted fewer touches than Moss, who remains available until Round 10. His ADP is also at 121 in Fantasy Pros' consensus rankings, which places him at RB44. This leaves the rookie undervalued in all drafts,

 

Running Back - Overvalued

Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers

RB25/ADP 49

Mostert's ADP had placed him in Round 4 during early July, and he is still being selected at the onset of Round 5 in NFFC drafts. This elevates him above his ADP in FFPC drafts (53) where he is currently placed at RB28. It also entrenches him among a collection of backs that provide the potential to accumulate highly productive results. However, other rushers that remain available should not experience the erratic weekly workloads that occur with Kyle Shanahan’s fluid deployment of backs.

Interest in a 28-year old veteran who has played for seven different teams (Eagles, Dolphins, Ravens, Jets, Bears, Browns, 49ers) intensified following Mostert’s impressive production from Weeks 13-17. He accumulated 379 yards on 64 attempts (75.8 yards per game), while also generating six touchdowns during that span. Mostert accentuated those numbers by shredding Green Bay for 220 yards during the NFC Championship game.

However, he only averaged 7.3 attempts and 39.3 yards per game from Weeks 1-12, while surpassing nine attempts in just two of his 10 matchups. His season-long average of 8.6 attempts-per-game, was exceeded by 35 other backs that performed in 10+ games including Tevin Coleman and former teammate Matt Breida. His season-long snap count percentage was also 36%, which trailed the 42% that was allotted to Coleman.

Mostert’s minimal involvement as a receiver does not offset the constraints that can emerge with his rushing opportunities, as he only averaged 1.4 targets/11.3 yards per game during 2019. Those modest numbers still represented career highs (22 targets/14 receptions/180 yards), which is disconcerting for a back whose involvement as a rusher can be quashed during any given week.

The 49ers' penchant for modifying the usage of their backs remains the most formidable hurdle that could keep Mostert from fulfilling the expectations of his ADP. Coleman lurks as a candidate to pilfer touches, while Shanahan's strategic approach could also include Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson, and JaMycal Hasty as interchangeable components.

That should present potential owners with substantial incentive to target players that are more likely to reward your early Round 5 investment (Kareem Hunt/Cam Akers/D.K. Metcalf/Terry McLaurin).

 

Wide Receiver - Undervalued

D.J. Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars

WR21/ADP 55

Chark managed only modest numbers during his 2018 rookie season (32 targets/14 receptions/174 yards). But he launched into high-end WR2 terrain during 2019. Chark finished 17th in point per game scoring (PPR), while also placing 19th in targets (118/7.9 per game), and receptions (73). The 6’4”, 200-pound Chark also tied for seventh in touchdowns (8), eclipsed 1,000 yards (1,008), finished 11th in percentage share of team’s air yards (33.13), and was 17th in air yards (1,413).

His final numbers would be even more impressive if he had eluded the ankle issue that developed in Week 14. Chark was WR8 in scoring, 15th in targets (106 targets/8.2 per game) and fourth in touchdowns (8) when the injury occurred. Chark was also 13th in receiving yards (956) and seventh in air yards (1,355). But his availability and effectiveness were impacted by the injury during his final three matchups.

23 Years Old? ✅
6'3" with 4.34 speed? ✅
Over 115 Targets? ✅
24% Red Zone Target Share? ✅

I love D.J. Chark.
You should love D.J. Chark. pic.twitter.com/KMUfbY1cch

— Mike Randle (@RandleRant) July 3, 2020

Chark also captured 15 red-zone targets, while supplying the versatility to operate almost equally on the perimeter (49.1%), and in the slot. But despite Chark’s achievements during 2019, he is currently the 21st receiver to be selected during the majority of NFFC drafts (ADP 54), with similar results in FFPC leagues (WR23/ADP 59).

This leaves him undervalued, as he has an unquestioned path toward functioning as Jacksonville’s primary receiving option in 2020.
Chark has also proven his proficiency with Gardner Minshew under center, as the tandem connected for 43 receptions from Weeks 1-9. Chark also tied for third in touchdowns (6) and was ninth in yardage (692) during that sequence. He also averaged 6.8 targets per game after Minshew resurfaced as the starter in Week 13.

Weeks 1-9	Yards	TDs	Targets/Game	Targets	Recs
Mike Evans	842	7	10.4	83	50
Kenny Golladay	640	7	7.8	62	35
Tyler Lockett	767	6	8	72	59
Chris Godwin	766	6	9	72	54
DJ Chark	692	6	7.8	70	43
Amari Cooper	701	6	7.1	57	42
Marvin Jones	535	6	7.1	57	42
Adam Thielen	391	6	5.1	41	27
Cooper Kupp	792	5	10.9	87	58
DK Metcalf	525	5	6	54	29
Terry McLaurin	497	5	6.5	52	32

Chark will not encounter significant competition for targets within a Jacksonville depth chart that contains Chris Conley, Dede Westbrook, and rookie Laviska Shenault. Chark presents owners with an outstanding mixture of talent and opportunity, which makes him worthy of selection in Round 4. This should motivate you to seize him at his current ADP.

 

Wide Receiver - Overvalued

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

WR20/ADP 51

Sutton experienced a sizable rise in usage and production last season, which included his finish among the top 20 in scoring, targets (125/7.8 per game), yardage (1,112), air yards (1,436), and yards per route (2.48). He also led the NFL in percentage share of teams’ air yards (42.93). These achievements could have elevated Sutton into high-end WR2 candidacy, with a legitimate chance of approaching WR1 territory. But several factors have developed that will impede Sutton from matching last year’s statistical success.

These emerging issues were discussed here, beginning with a significant increase in competition for targets. This was not a factor during 2019, as DaeSean Hamilton was second on the team in targets (52), receptions (28) and yardage (297), and finished at WR95 in scoring.

But an offseason talent infusion by John Elway has provided Denver with the prospects of incorporating Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler into the receiving equation. They join second-year tight end Noah Fant as candidates to commandeer opportunities, which will negatively impact Sutton’s numbers.

Sutton owners must also contend with ongoing uncertainty surrounding Drew Lock’s ability to direct the Bronco passing attack, as it is unclear whether the Denver signal-caller can navigate an NFL offense throughout an entire 16-game season. There is also a genuine reason for concern that Sutton’s yardage declined by nearly 20 yards-per-game during Lock’s five games as the starter (75.6/56.0), while his yards-per-target average also dropped from 9.8 to 7.0.

Sutton's ADP currently resides at 51. This is slightly above his ADP during the FFPC draft process (54), while placing him among the top 20 at his position. While his talent remains immense, the influx of additional receiving weapons will force a reduction in his target share, along with his eventual output. Chark, McLaurin, and Tyler Lockett are among the receivers that are currently being selected after Sutton. However, it is reasonable to project all members of that trio to surpass Sutton's production.

 

Tight End - Undervalued

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns

TE13/ADP 128

Hooper has migrated northward to Cleveland after steadily increasing his yardage total in all four seasons with Atlanta (271/526/660/787). He also achieved career-highs in targets, receptions, yardage, and touchdowns in 2019, which propelled him to TE6 in PPR scoring - even though he was sidelined from Weeks 11-13 with a sprained MCL.

His reception total placed him fifth among tight ends (75), while he was sixth in targets (97) and receiving yards (787), and fourth in touchdowns (6), and red zone targets (18). From Weeks 4-8 he tied with Travis Kelce for the most targets (40/8 per game), while pacing his position in receptions (33), and yardage (414).

Austin

Hooper

Is

Not

A

System

TE pic.twitter.com/Rq8o5qioMr

— Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) July 9, 2020

He now joins a revamped passing attack that will be spearheaded by Kevin Stefanski. There have been divergent opinions concerning Hooper’s value in the Browns' offense, including sentiment that he is destined for a reduction in volume. This belief is partially based on Cleveland's usage of the tight end position in 2019, even though the team has clearly transitioned from the catastrophic tenure of Freddie Kitchens. It is also difficult to envision the Browns securing Hooper with a $42 million contract in order to use him as their fifth option.

A healthy Odell Beckham Jr. should exceed his 2019 target share (25.9). However, Jarvis Landry's share (26.7) could be reduced by the arrival of Hooper. Stefanski will also utilize his dynamic backfield tandem (Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt) as pass catchers. But this still should not relegate Hooper to a modest role.

Stefanski deployed 12 personnel with great frequency as Minnesota's offensive coordinator, and a similar approach would be beneficial for Hooper. Former first-round pick David Njoku has not developed into a dependable weapon during his first three seasons and is not a threat to Hooper’s usage as a TE1. The disappointing Njoku was hampered by a thumb issue in 2019 but also became a healthy scratch twice during December.

Hooper is capable of finishing the year in the TE7/TE 8 range. However, he is being selected at TE13 in both NFFC and FFPC drafts. This leaves him undervalued while presenting owners with an enormous opportunity to capitalize on his current ADP.

 

Tight End - Overvalued

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders

TE5/ADP 67

This is not a suggestion that Waller cannot function as a mid-range TE1. Nor is it a recommendation that you avoid him entirely during your drafts. However, the Raider passing attack was fortified with a burgeoning number of weapons during the offseason. This makes it unlikely that Waller will duplicate last year’s usage and production.

Waller has undergone a massive career transformation after managing just 12 receptions and 103 yards from 2015-2017 and being signed from Baltimore’s practice squad in 2018. The Raiders elevated him into a starting role last season, and the 27-year old stockpiled 117 targets, while finishing second among tight ends in yardage (1,145) and receptions (90). He also vaulted to TE3 in PPR scoring, captured a 23.8% target share, and led the Raiders in most receiving categories.

Raiders Weeks 1-17	Targ/Game	Targets	Target Share	Recepts	Yards
Darren Waller	7.3	117	23.8	90	1,145
Hunter Renfrow	5.5	71	14.2	49	605
Tyrell Williams	4.6	64	13	42	651
Jalen Richard	2.7	43	8.7	36	323
DeAndre Washington	2.6	41	8.3	36	292
Josh Jacobs	2.1	27	5.5	20	166
Foster Moreau	1.9	25	5.1	21	174
Derek Carrier	1.1	17	3.9	13	108
Keelan Doss	1.8	14	3	11	133
Marcell Ateman	0.9	10	1.8	5	116

These numbers would build a sturdy case for targeting Waller at his current ADP if Las Vegas was entering Week 1 with the same weapons that were deployed last season. However, the Raiders fortified their passing attack during the offseason by adding the explosive Henry Ruggs, 6’3” Bryan Edwards, and the versatile Lynn Bowden to their existing options.

Las Vegas’ upgraded unit also contains slot specialist Hunter Renfrow, who finished seventh among rookie receivers in receptions (49) and receiving yards (605). A healthy Tyrell Williams will also resurface after an extended plantar fasciitis issue circumvented his 2019 season. Jason Witten was also signed in March, while second-year tight end Foster Moreau presents yet another potential competitor for touches as the season progresses.

The resources that Gruden can now blend into his offensive script have increased considerably, which makes it improbable that Waller can reach the sizable target share that he absorbed in 2019. However, only four tight ends are being drafted before him in NFFC drafts (Round 6) while he is being selected two rounds earlier during FFPC drafts (47). His talent remains enticing. But there will be a number of legitimate TE1 prospects in Rounds 7-10, which allows you to exercise patience before addressing the position.

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