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Man what an odd first week of the season. Arizona not only covered the seven points, but beat the NFC Champions outright on their home field. Carolina had some mishaps offensively and weren't able to contain Josh Jacobs, losing by four points, just missing the cover. Meanwhile, the Cowboys and the Rams couldn't do anything offensively in the second half of Sunday Night Football, dooming any chance at an over.
- Week 1: 1-2 (33%, -1.1u)
- 2019 Season: 1-2 (33%, -1.1u)
Sure, it's going to take a few weeks to truly grasp how every team will square off, but I'm feeling confident after Week 1. I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at Rotoballer all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and bet responsibly!
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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5, -420)
O/U: 48.5
The Panthers were one of 10 teams to average six yards or more per play (ypp) in Week 1, but overall inconsistency was attributed to their loss to the Raiders. They still dropped 30 with a new coach, system, and quarterback, all while supporting 96 rushing yards and two scores from Christian McCaffrey. Defensively, they had their struggles as well, allowing Vegas to churn out 372 yards, or 6.1 ypp. Their secondary was already banged up and now they might be without starter Donte Jackson in Week 2, so they'll have their hands full guarding the Bucs' receiving corps.
Tampa Bay got their first look at the aging Tom Brady against the Saints in Week 1. No, the GOAT didn't look like the player we've come to know, but you should've had tempered expectations anyway. He threw a pair of touchdowns and interceptions, and oddly enough only looked Mike Evans' way four times, which Bruce Arians wants to change. The run game will continue to be tough to predict, but Ronald Jones II looked much better than Fournette did in Week 1. Defensively, the Bucs had the best run defense and the third worst pass defense in terms of yards allowed per game in 2019. They held CMC to just 68 rushing yards and a score with six catches for 42 yards and a score in two games last year.
It's going to take some time for Bridgewater to develop a true chemistry with his receivers, yet Vegas is still favoring Brady big here, despite him having to make the same transition. Now Chris Godwin (concussion protocol) could potentially be out Sunday. I'm respecting Bridgewater's ability to go toe-to-toe with the GOAT in this matchup. I might even sprinkle a small ML bet on the Panthers.
Pick: Carolina +9.5 (FYI, I got this at +10 using Draftkings 25% Profit Boost for Week 2) 1 Unit
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-6, -245)
O/U: 49.5
The Lions could be 1-0 had they held a 23-6 lead and if their first-round pick, Deandre Swift, hadn't flat out dropped the game-winning touchdown with two seconds left on the clock. Kenny Gollday (hamstring) didn't play which obviously affected the offense, but Matthew Stafford still threw the ball 42 times, completing 24 for 297 yards and just one touchdown. Regardless of if Golladay misses another contest, expect Satfford to sling at least another 35 times. Adrian Peterson seems to have walked right in and taken Kerryon Johnson's job, but this rushing attack is still incredibly volatile. Their defense is in trouble yet again, this time due to injury as seven players are on IR on that side of the ball. The Lions housed the worst pass defense in the NFL in 2019 and that could be the case again this year.
Aaron Rodgers had no issues against Minnesota in Week 1, completing 73% of his passes for 364 yards and four scores. Naturally, Davante Adams caught two of them and this connection should have a field day against the Lions secondary. Aaron Jones was steady but not stellar, though he is known to have explosive games. Defensively, the Packers were a top 10 pass defense by DVOA in 2019 but struggled mightily stopping the run, allowing almost 130 ypg, and they allowed 134 in the opener.
The Packers will likely rely on the Rodgers-Adams connection once again as Detroit's secondary is dismantled. For Detroit, they'll be throwing a lot, and yes, without Golladay, this offense is a shell of what it could be; however, Stafford could be forced to throw the ball 40-plus times again. If Golladay is out again, I like GB to cover, but I'm targeting the points here even if the Lions' star receiver is out.
Pick: Over 49.5 (Draftkings) 1 Unit
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-4, -190)
O/U: 45
Cam Newton seemed to ease a lot of Patriot fans' minds with his Week 1 performance. Sure, he didn't even throw for a touchdown or eclipse 200 yards, but he rushed for 75 and two scores. I think it's pretty clear that New England still isn't worried about throwing the ball a lot. A four-headed running back committee led by Sony Michel is the opposite of exciting but they continue to find ways to win and no, WR1 Julian Edelman doesn't give them much of a reason to change. Despite losing several key players to opting out for the 2020 season, this defense still houses Stephon Gilmore among others. They held Miami to just 3.2 yards per carry and only 200 yards passing with three picks. Miami is no Seattle, but those are still impressive numbers.
The Seahawks started strong and finished strong in Week 1, and t had nothing to do with the run game like many would've expected. Russell Wilson threw for 322 yards and four scores while Carlos Hyde added a score on the ground. Think this was a statement to the league that they're for real? I do. Jamal Adams made his presence known as a new member of the Seahawks, and they surrounding cast performed well against a stout Atlanta offense. If they can continue at that pace, they'll clearly outperform their 16/23 pass/run rank by DVOA from 2019.
New England might try and exercise their passing options more this week, but the offense is going to run through Cam Newton regardless so if he wants to run, he's going to run. Seattle on the other hand clearly is fit to both run and pass. Both sides will be met with tougher than expected defenses making this a low scoring game to end the Sunday slate.
Pick: Under 45 (Draftkings) 1 Unit
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