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Week 7 was again off to a 2-0 start thanks to Green Bay winning by two-plus scores. Meanwhile, Kansas City nearly doubled the point total Vegas had them listed at. Then Seattle had to come in and ruin the week during Sunday Night Football in an overtime thriller, losing outright to the Cardinals. This is about as steady as the NFL has been all season, in terms of COVID- related issues, so if they can continue to keep things afloat for a bit, I have full confidence in where this season is going. On our end, lets keep things positive, green, and fun!
- Week 7: 2-1 (67%, +.9u)
- 2020 Season: 12-8-1 (57%, +3.97u)
(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Indianapolis Colts (-3, -150) at Detroit Lions
O/U: 50
The Colts entered their Week 7 bye as winners of four of the last five. Heading into Week 6, many had questioned if Philip Rivers was still capable of running an offense but he answered that by engaging in a shootout with the Bengals and throwing for three scores and 371 yards. Still, it's hard to expect that every week from the 39-year-old. Luckily, he has some youth in the backfield with him in Jonathan Taylor who's yet to be considered a work horse, but he's averaging a modest 4.1 ypg with three scores so far. The Colts' pass catchers are banged up but T.Y. Hilton and Trey Burton are around to carry things along. Defensively, they should finally get Darius Leonard back after missing the last two games, which will aid a defense that allows just 199 passing yards and 88 rushing yard per game (ypg) so far.
Over the past few years, Detroit has heavily relied on the passing game mainly because they had few other options. D'Andre Swift has come back healthy over the last two games, rushing for 116 and 27 yards in the last two games, respectively, including three scores. Adrian Peterson is still around of course, but it's quite clear they want to look Swift's way more. Matthew Stafford has his full arsenal healthy, which he'll need to utilize against this defense. Kenny Golladay will get Xavier Rhodes but Marvin Jones Jr. and T.J. Hockenson have far more favorable matchups. Defensively, the Lions have been pretty bad, allowing over 360 ypg in all but one contest this year. They traded for Everson Griffen this week but he won't make a difference here.
The Colts have one of the better defenses in the league so far, and now they get their top defensive star back. Detroit has the fire power to press this defense, but they've shown more of a willingness to run the ball recently which bodes well for a lower scoring game. Indy's passing offense isn't as high powered with Rivers so I have no problems targeting a lower scoring affair in the Motor City.
Pick: Under 50.5 (-110, Foxbet) 1 Unit
LA Rams (-3.5, -195) at Miami Dolphins
O/U: 46
The Rams have yet to hit their stride but a 5-2 record pits them amongst the NFC's best, despite ranking third in the NFC West. As a unit, the offense puts up over 70 more yards on the road thanks in part to the 150 ypg on the ground. However, the three-man cycle in the backfield makes things a bit cloudy, but look for Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown to get first dibs. However, Jared Goff hasn't been called upon too much yet, throwing for 270 yards just twice in six games, but with guys like Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods on the receiving end, the Rams are in a good spot to make some noise through the air against a Dolphins Defense that struggles on the road.
This is the first game we get with Tua Tagovailoa starting in the NFL. No one truly knows what to expect, but this offense certainly wasn't a push over before the change of quarterbacks before their Week 7 bye. Tua is obviously a highly touted prospect, but anything can happen once he realizes the lights are all on him. In his favor, Myles Gaskin has been rather respectable as the lead back for Miami with 340 yards rushing and over 180 yards receiving. DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and Mike Gesicki have done their best to extend the passing game, but with a new quarterback there's no telling which way this offense will go.
The Rams haven't exactly taken the world by storm this year, but the offense has the fire power to make some very quick moves to the top of the standings. Since Sean McVay has taken over the helm, the Rams are 18-11 against the spread on the road. It's never easy for a West coast team to travel East, but the pass rush the Rams possess will give the rookie signal caller plenty of issues. Ram's should win by a touchdown here.
Pick: Rams -3.5 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, -141)
O/U: 50
It's no doubt that the Raiders upsetting the Chiefs in Week 5 will likely be the highlight of their season, but it also means this squad is someone to watch out for the rest of the year. They house a Top 10 offense in terms of yards per game and are 11th in points per game with 28.5. Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs have made their mark on offense, accounting for 18 touchdowns so far. Nelson Agholor has wound up their WR1 which is mildly discouraging, but Darren Waller has retained his large portion of the target share as well. Now we get to the defensive issues; the Raiders allow a hair under 33 ppg, good for second worst in the league. They've allowed over 335 yard in every game so far and over 400 yards in four of their six games. This defense is as porous as it gets.
Sure, Cleveland is without their most notable star in Odell Beckham Jr. along with Nick Chubb, but the offense hasn't seemed to skip a beat. Baker Mayfield isn't some Super Bowl winning quarterback, but man does he know how to make plays happen. The Brownies average over 370 ypg at home, which give them a big plus in Week 8. Jarvis Landry and Kareem Hunt give this offense a different edge in a multitude of ways and the lack of talent on Vegas' defensive side means that Cleveland shouldn't have an issue moving the ball. For the Browns' offense sake, let's hope the defense can contain the Raiders but I don't see it. Cleveland allows over 80 ypg so far, but just 323 ypg as hosts, but they're in the lower half of both run and pass defense DVOA.
There is a lot of fire power on both of these offenses, sans a few bigger name players on Cleveland's side but it shouldn't matter. Both defenses rank in the lower half which should give both quarterbacks plenty of chances to throw points up on the board and often.
Pick: Over 50 (-110, Foxbet) 1 Unit
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