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We have finally (hopefully) reached game day for the Ravens and Steelers Week 12 matchup. This game was originally supposed to be played on Thanksgiving night and has subsequently been postponed two additional times and will now be played this afternoon in Pittsburgh. Hopefully, the game goes off as scheduled and we can hit some Monkey Knife Fight props.
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Without further adieu, let's take a look at some of this afternoon's props.
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More or Less Contest(s)
Recommended Prop Picks:
Ben Roethlisberger less than 265.5 passing yards: Big Ben and the Steelers would be wise to come out and try to run the ball on this Ravens Defense as they have been absolutely gashed recently. The Ravens have allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of the previous two weeks and three of the previous five weeks. They have also been stingy against the pass as they have only allowed an average of 196 passing yards per game over the previous four weeks, which ranks sixth-best in the league. It should also be noted that Roethlisberger only threw for 182 passing yards in his previous meeting with this defense in Week 8.
Robert Griffin III less than 170.5 passing yards: I am not going to pretend to know what RGIII is capable of after not having been a regular in the NFL since 2016, but I can tell you about this Steelers Defense. The Steelers are ranked fourth in the league over the previous four weeks by allowing just over 179 passing yards per game. They have also allowed nearly 94 rushing yards per game to backs over the previous four weeks, which ranks in the bottom 15 of the league. This seems like a spot where John Harbaugh scales down the playbook and emplores more rushing attempts from an offense that already ranks second in the league in rushing yards per game.
Diontae Johnson less than 60.5 receiving yards: This is a difficult prop because Johnson has been solid all season except when he faced the Ravens in Week 8 where he hauled in a measly one reception for six yards. Aside from that game, Johnson has seen double-digit targets in each game he was healthy except vs. Houston. I expect this game to be more of a running game for the Steelers (as the spread and matchup dictate), which is part of the reason I lean less than on this prop. Johnson will also be covered by Jimmy Smith who has been stout in 2020 by only allowing receivers a 41.5% catch rate and has only allowed a total of 161 receiving yards. All this being said, I do expect the Steelers to move the ball through the air to gain the lead before slowing things down. This is a 4/4 prop, but you could certainly play a 2/2 or 3/3 and leave Johnson entirely out of the Mix if you wish.
Benny Snell Jr. more than 59.5 rushing yards: As aforementioned, the Ravens have struggled vs. the run in recent weeks. Over the previous four weeks, they have allowed running backs to rush for over 123 yards per game, which ranks third-worst in the league over that span. The Steelers are 10-point favorites in this one and should be able to get up on a depleted Ravens squad, which would allow them to run a bit more later in the game. Snell should fit in as the lead back much the way he was in Week 1 when Conner went down and carried the ball 19 times for 113 rushing yards.
Note: This is a 4/4 more or less prop, but you can certainly mix these up and play a 2/2 or 3/3 or you are more comfortable with some selections as opposed to others.
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