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Each year after the draft, I write a long draft review in which I predict the careers of players in each team's draft class. It's a ridiculous exercise, but fun to do and I think entertaining to read.
Over the past 10 years of making these predictions, I've always cautioned readers that I would pick busts and that most other post-draft analysis is unrealistically optimistic. Simply looking back at any draft over the year will show you that many, many, many players do not live up to their draft selection.
I can't predict every player to be a star. It's just not realistic. But how many players should I pick to bust? Can I pick the entire top 10 to succeed? In an effort to have some math to back up my predictions, I conducted this study to figure out the value of draft picks based on past drafts.
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Grading the Picks
I’ve gone over every draft from 2007 to 2017 and given every single player a career grade:
5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position.
4 – Above Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position.
3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production.
2 – Replacement Level: Below average starter or back-up who made minor contributions.
1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.
The grades do not take into account what team each player flourished or busted for. For example, Marshawn Lynch was graded a 5 because he became a 5-level player, even though it wasn’t until he switched teams. So we are rating what the player became, not if his initial draft selection was a success for the team that took him. The idea is to understand the landscape of the talent, so team circumstances aren’t represented.
This study is obviously subjective. But a percentage point here and there based on the fact that you view someone as a 3 and I think he’s a 2 isn’t a big deal. The idea is to get in the ballpark. How likely are you to land a 3 or above in the 3rd round? How about the 7th? What’s the rate of complete busts in the top 15? Etc.
I’ve compiled the data and separated the draft into the following areas: Picks 1-5, Picks 6-10, Picks 11-20, Picks 21-32, Picks 33-48, Picks 49-64, 3rd-Round, 4th-Round, 5th-Round, 6th-Round, 7th-Round.
Here are the results:
Picks 1-5
All-Pro: 21.8%
Above Average: 20.0%
Solid: 23.6%
Replacement Level: 25.5%
Bust: 9.1%
A top 5 pick is thought of as gold, and you have about a 40% chance to get a terrific player. But I don't think the average fan realizes that there's a 23.6% chance their top-five player is just solid. And more than a third of the time, a top 5 pick is a supreme disappointment.
Picks 6-10
All-Pro: 18.2%
Above Average: 12.7%
Solid: 30.9%
Replacement Level: 20.0%
Bust: 18.2%
From picks 6-10 you have about a 30% chance at a 4 or 5 and a 30.9% chance to just get a solid pro. Meanwhile, 38.2% of these picks turn into a 2 or a 1.
Picks 11-20
All-Pro: 7.3%
Above Average: 16.4%
Solid: 39.1%
Replacement Level: 24.5%
Bust 12.7%
The only major difference between picking 6-10 and 11-20 is that your odds of finding an elite player decrease by more than half. Finding a 4 or 3 is most likely, while being completely disappointed with a 1 or 2 happens 37.2% of the time. Picking in the teens is clearly not that much different than picking in the latter half of the top 10.
Picks 21-32
All-Pro: 6.2%
Above Average: 12.3%
Solid: 28.5%
Replacement Level: 23.8%
Bust: 29.2%
The last third of the first round has drop-offs for 5s, 4s, and 3s, and the bust percentage rises significantly. You won't find many post-draft articles predicting disappointments for a third of all first-round players. But that's the unfortunate reality.
Picks 33-48
All-Pro: 2.8%
Above Average: 9.1%
Solid: 26.1%
Replacement Level: 27.3%
Bust: 34.7%
The top of the second round sees a drop-off across 5s, 4s, and 3s. 2s and 1s rise, but it's not drastic. From a talent standpoint, the end of the first isn't much different than the top of the second.
Picks 49-64
All-Pro: 2.8%
Above Average: 5.1%
Solid: 19.9%
Replacement Level: 28.4%
Bust: 43.8%
The major difference between the first half of the second round and the second half of the second round is that busts appear 9.1% more often.
3rd Round
All-Pro: 1.8%
Above Average: 4.3%
Solid: 12.4%
Replacement Level: 28.1%
Bust: 53.4%
I've always considered third-rounders "premium" picks, but this data is startling. Over 80% of all third-rounders yield a 1 or 2.
4th Round
All-Pro: 0.6%
Above Average: 1.1%
Solid: 7.5%
Replacement Level: 30.3%
Bust: 60.6%
When watching the third day of the draft, take note of who is predicting steals and values. Only 9.2% of all fourth-rounders will amount to much of anything.
5th Round
All-Pro: 1.0%
Above Average: 1.2%
Solid: 8.4%
Replacement Level: 22.9%
Bust: 66.6%
The fifth round has actually been more fruitful in recent years. And still more than two-thirds of all fifth-rounders end up busting completely.
6th Round
All-Pro: 0.5%
Above Average: 1.0%
Solid: 3.0%
Replacement Level: 14.7%
Bust: 80.8%
Now we’re entering the part of the draft where Replacement level players represent some value. The truth, however, is that replacement level players can be easily found by signing UDFA, emergency-list guys off the street, or veteran free agents. So this becomes a lottery ticket for a contributor. The only All-Pros drafted in the sixth during 2007-2017 were Antonio Brown and Jason Kelce.
7th Round
All-Pro: 0.0%
Above Average: 0.4%
Solid: 2.7%
Replacement Level: 13.7%
Bust: 83.2%
Finally, the seventh round. Where if you don’t find Harrison Butker or Chris Carson, you’re better off focusing on priority undrafted free agents.
Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for more NFL Draft content.
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