NHL DFS for FanDuel, DraftKings (9/11): Value Plays, Goalies, Power Plays, Core 4, Stacks

4 years ago by Chris Wassel

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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey this time of year is a different experience with the showdown slates. The goal is to keep things simple during this time of year. Keep it simple stupid applies here.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Nikita Kucherov who can be a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and Fanduel for Friday, September 11th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 9/11

New York Islanders (+140) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-160)

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis

Team	Goalie GAA	Goalie SS	Goalie RBS	Goalie GSAA	Goalie QS%
Semyon Varlamov	2.21 -- 5th	25.18	2	-0.90	64.3
Andrei Vasilevskiy	1.86 -- 2nd	31.33	0	6.24	57.1

The numbers I use will be a bit different than Jorge's but the goal is the same. Goalies are ranked based on a minimum of eight starts (more than one round basically).This is to keep you informed of overall statistics from an individual goaltending standpoint. New York still uses Semyon Varlamov far more than Thomas Greiss so we will use Varlamov's numbers as seen above. Goalie SS is simply goalie shots seen. Goalie RBS is what we call a really bad start where a goaltender has a save percentage of .850 or less. Goalie GSAA is goals saved above average and the quality start percentage is where a goaltender posts above the league average in save percentage.

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Now, in both games this series, Vasilevskiy has two quality starts to Varlamov's one. Also, the Tampa Bay netminder has utilized better rebound control and has sealed his crease better. Varlamov allowed a key goal to Victor Hedman in Game 2 when he forgot to seal off the short side post. It is why game by game trending has to be included in overall postseason analysis. Vasilevskiy did see more shots in Game 2 and looked to be in a better rhythm because of it. Varlamov saw 21 shots and stopped 19.

Power Play Analysis

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK %
New York Islanders	16.2% -- 15	82.5% -- 11
Tampa Bay Lightning	20.5% -- 8	79.6% -- 16

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!

NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown

Captain Picks

Victor Hedman ($13,500 DK/ $13,000 FD) - Hedman looks to again be one of the better overall plays on this slate when looking at his recent form and pricepoint. He has had double-digit scores in six of his last seven games played and has generated ten total points over that seven-game span! In his last four games, Hedman has a goal in each of them with seven points. With how well he has been playing it is hard to look past Hedman in all formats on this showdown slate. When one adds in his floor with blocked shot potential plus the uncertainty of Brayden Point's injury, Hedman is almost a lock.
Nikita Kucherov ($15,900 DK/ $16,000 FD) - Kucherov is the most expensive player on the slate but also carries the highest ceiling of all skaters in this game. He is coming off of a five-point performance in game 1 of this series plus the game winning goal in Game 2 and has recorded 12 total points in his last five games played. Kucherov is averaging three shots per game against the Islanders and has generated eight total points against them in five games played. He is certainly viable in tournament formats since his salary in the captain spot is so high but he also brings multi-point scoring upside which could help take down the bigger prizes in tournaments.
Jordan Eberle ($10,800 DK/ $11,500 FD) - If you want to be different in tournaments, Jordan Eberle should be considered again. Eberle has been playing some great hockey as of late as he has scored a point in four of his last five games and has three points in four contests against Tampa Bay. Throw out Game 2 as the entire first line was just average at best. Some may consider Anthony Beauvillier but Eberle is on that top unit power play which means in theory, more chances.

Value Picks

Ondrej Palat ($8,000 DK/ $11,000 FD) - Palat has been skating with the top Lightning line all postseason long and has filled in nicely for Steven Stamkos. Palat is cheaper than his other linemates but allows you to get exposure to the top line and the top powerplay line as well. He has scored double-digit DK points in five of six games. If needing salary relief, Palat can be viable in tournaments for the captain role due to his recent form and salary savings that he provides. With the uncertainty of Brayden Point's status, Palat may be even more of a focal point on offense.
Ryan McDonagh ($4,400 DK/ $8,000 FD) - McDonagh has been playing occasionally alongside Victor Hedman. The veteran defender has scored five points over his last two games played and has notched points against the Islanders in both games of this series. He had a solid Game 2 including that saucer pass which set up the Kucherov game winner. He becomes an excellent cheap alternative from the blueline for those looking to save a few dollars.
Matt Martin ($2,000 DK/ $6,000 FD) - Martin is minimum price in all formats and has double-digit points in two of his last four games. It is at least worth a flier on the showdown slate as it is basically like a free square allowing one to spend up everywhere else. With Derick Brassard likely out again, he is the most valuable Islander for his pricepoint.