NHL DFS for FanDuel, DraftKings (9/12): Value Plays, Goalies, Power Plays, Core 4, Stacks

4 years ago by Chris Wassel

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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey this time of year is a different experience with the showdown slates. The goal is to keep things simple during this time of year. Keep it simple stupid applies here.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Nikita Kucherov who can be a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and Fanduel for Saturday, September 12th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 9/12

Dallas Stars (+140) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-160)

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis

Team	Goalie GAA	Goalie SS	Goalie RBS	Goalie GSAA	Goalie QS%
Anton Khudobin	2.77 -- 10th	31.83	1	-0.45	43.8
Robin Lehner	1.92 -- 3rd	24.29	1	1.62	50

The numbers I use will be a bit different than Jorge's but the goal is the same. Goalies are ranked based on a minimum of eight starts (more than one round basically).This is to keep you informed of overall statistics from an individual goaltending standpoint. Goalie SS is simply goalie shots seen. Goalie RBS is what we call a really bad start where a goaltender has a save percentage of .850 or less. Goalie GSAA is goals saved above average and the quality start percentage is where a goaltender posts above the league average in save percentage.

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Now, in the three games this series, Khudobin has looked better in two of them (Games 1 and 3). Lehner looked more solid in Game 2. Both were a bit banged up in Game 3 but are 100% to go for tonight. Dallas needs to watch Khudobin though. He was getting beyond aggressive in the late stages of Game 3 and yet it worked against Vegas, somehow. Vegas expects to adjust there. The key in Game 4 will be the first ten minutes. Dallas needs to keep things more even like in Games 1 and 3.

Power Play Analysis

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK %
Dallas Stars	25.9% -- 2	88.9% -- 3
Vegas Golden Knights	19% -- 7	82.9% -- 7

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!

Dallas has one of the most dangerous power plays next to Tampa Bay and some would argue with the likes of Joe Pavelski and a resurgent Jamie Benn -- more dangerous. Vegas is just as formidable on the power play but a lot of their chances in the first three games have not resulted in goals -- sometimes due to bad luck and sometimes due to the aggressive play of Anton Khudobin.

NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown

Captain Picks

Robin Lehner ($16,200 DK) - Lehner was sharp in game 2 of the series against Dallas as he recorded a 24 save shutout and generated a 26.8 DK point performance. He posted back-to-back shutouts in his last two games played and had a bit of a down Game 3. This series has been a bit of a yo-yo for Vegas so the expectation is an "up" performance for them as they make adjustments. The only risk with Lehner is he is seeing less than 25 shots per 60 in these playoffs. It is the type of low-shot output where Lehner has to get the win and a quality start of two goals allowed or less to hit value basically.
Max Pacioretty ($15,000 DK/ $14,500 FD ) - The top offensive choice for Vegas is always in consideration, especially on a showdown slate. Pacioretty has found success against the Stars this year as he has recorded four points in five games played against Dallas this season. He has been active on the offensive end in the early portion of this series as he is averaging more than four shots on goal in this postseason. If he can keep up the volume shooting and generate a few points, Pacioretty could easily be one of the highest-scoring players in this game. He comes off his worst game of the postseason in Game 3 with two shots and just one scoring chance created.
Anton Khudobin ($15,600 DK) - If you are wanting a lower owned play on this slate, look no further than Khudobin for the Stars. Khudobin has done really well in the net for the Stars throughout the postseason as he has filled in for Ben Bishop. He has gone 10-6 and carries a .915 save percentage which shows the good form he has been in throughout the playoffs. With Vegas being the favorite, it should lower the ownership on Khudobin for tournaments and factoring how low scoring this series has been so far, Khudobin could be a great DraftKings play as his potential for hitting the save bonus (35+ saves) is far higher than Lehner at this juncture.

Value Picks

Paul Stastny ($5,600 DK/ $9,500 FD) - It looks like the Knights switched up their lines a bit last game and Stastny was bumped down to the third line but was joined by their top point-getter in Pacioretty. Stastny definitely gets a bump with skating alongside a winger like that and he still seems valuable minutes on their 2nd team power-play unit. While he doesn't offer the most upside in the world, he is a great stacking piece especially at the price point he is at. Eventually this line wound up playing second line minutes in Game 3. Expect more of that in Game 4 as Stastny is always dangerous on the man advantage and gets down the middle of the ice well.
Nicolas Roy ($3,000 DK/ $7,000 FD) - Another beneficiary of Pacioretty getting bumped down to the third line for Vegas is Nicolas Roy. While the 3rd line for Vegas was solid last series, there is no denying that Roy gets a boost skating with Stastny and Pacioretty over Tuch and Cousins. As a line, they posted a nearly 60 corsi and generated several scoring chances throughout game 3. Roy was able to register a shot on goal and a few scoring chances. Again, it comes down to execution. Roy is high-risk but at that price, is a punt play of value picks here.
John Klingberg ($6,800 DK/ $9,000 FD) - One of the better offensive defensemen in the league is John Klingberg. Klingberg sees plenty of ice time as he skates with both the top line and the top power-play line for the Stars. While the matchup against Vegas is tough, he has notched a goal already in this series, and at just $6,800, he is great value when considering the offensive upside and ice time. The last two games has dropped his price on FanDuel enough, that his value is greater there. Expect his ownership to drop on DraftKings as well as people will be lower on him.