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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is rolling along and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, March 31st, 2021 at 7:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/31
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- Philadelphia Flyers vs. Buffalo Sabres
- Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Winnipeg Jets
- Arizona Coyotes vs. Colorado Avalanche
- Los Angeles Kings vs. Vegas Golden Knights
- Calgary Flames vs. Vancouver Canucks
- Minnesota Wild vs. San Jose Sharks
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a six-game main slate, picking the right goalie is still important but not life and death. Out of the dozen goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one stay away from the North Division goalies? They are both great questions. Picking between these goaltenders may just be too rough of a proposition for most to stomach and most will look to Brian Elliott or Philipp Grubauer for better or worse.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Minnesota Wild vs. San Jose Shark. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Also, Calgary and Vancouver expects to see a bit more shot volume but again -- the North Division goalie dilemma.
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The Philadelphia Flyers and Buffalo Sabres may be the biggest wildcard yet the Winnipeg Jets and Toronto Maple Leafs have the numbers on their side. Which players does one choose?
It will be a bit more challenging on this slate to stack lines, but also more likely to do game stacks in some form or another.
Does any game have the potential to feature a goalie duel? Maybe the Vancouver and Calgary games do perhaps but neither Thatcher Demko nor Jacob Markstrom may have the impact some expect.
Finally, this main slate is again not your typical Wednesday slate, it looks a lot like Monday's slate though.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple again but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Nathan MacKinnon, COL ($9,000 DK / $9,000 FD) - MacKinnon is our top pick because of the matchup against Arizona. He has another point streak going and has hit the DraftKings shot bonus five times in the last 12 contests. The center fired seven shots on goal against Anaheim on Monday. He had four scoring chances and hit a crossbar. Colorado's top line has done extremely well against Arizona all season. MacKinnon has two goals and six points in five games while averaging six shots a game in this matchup. Also, with the Arizona Coyotes down to Adin Hill as a viable option, there are high expectations for another big night from MacKinnon and company.
- Christian Dvorak, ARZ ($4,200 DK / $4,400 FD) - We are digging lower as Dvorak has responded well since returning from injury. He has three points in his last two games and in his last four, has nine blocked shots -- seven of those in two meetings with Colorado. If the center gets a few shots and a few blocked shots, that should almost equal value on Wednesday. Considering his low salary, Dvorak gets top minutes and could catch Colorado's mobile defense napping once or twice.
This is again a medium slate. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with Vancouver and Calgary. Looking to the Calgary power play is a contrarian risk but plausible. Auston Matthews expects to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate on Wednesday along with MacKinnon. Finally, expect the unexpected.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Victor Olofsson, BUF ($3,800 DK / $4,800 FD) - Taking a risk on Buffalo players is almost okay at this point. The thing with the Sabres is they are shooting the puck more. Victor Olofsson is taking advantage of this everyone play for yourselves philosophy. He had six shots on goal against Philadelphia and with the Flyers' defense in shambles, Olofsson could do it again on Wednesday night. Buffalo is like Ottawa in the sense that their players are so undervalued due to the team's overall situation. Then again, an 18-game winless streak will have that effect. It is why even a defenseman like Brandon Montour could be valued as well.
- Nik Ehlers, WPG ($6,900 DK/ $6,800 FD) - Kyle Connor may be almost interchangeable here but Ehlers gets the nod because of his versatility. Ehlers can get a hat trick as fast as he can three assists. The Jets' winger is one of those few players that can take the lead or set the table with his speed. He had three assists on Monday night and has eight points in his last nine games with 33 shots on goal and 22 scoring chances created. The Toronto Maple Leafs will not have an easy time slowing down Winnipeg's new top-line at home on Wednesday. Some can also spend down and take advantage of the Andrew Copp hot streak (ten points in ten games).
Max Pacioretty will make a good one-off play against Los Angeles with seven goals in his last seven games. Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Simply watch to see line shifts in the later games. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Erik Karlsson, SJS ($4,100 DK / $4,200 FD) - So, it has come to this for a player like Karlsson. We look at his production of late and his price is actually undervalued? It is true. For the first time in forever, Karlsson appears to be about as healthy as he is going to be. In the last three games, the San Jose defenseman has acclimated himself better (maybe it is the peace of knowing his time in San Jose could be drawing to a close). Whatever it is, he has three points in his last three games with nine shots on goal and seven scoring chances. If he can play 23-25 minutes a night the rest of the way, Karlsson becomes a bargain.
- Ivan Provorov, PHI ($5,200 DK / $5,000 FD) - Let's keep this simple. Ivan Provorov is playing against Buffalo. That is almost all that is needed to be said. He had a goal and assist in the comeback on Monday and has the potential to hit DraftKings' shots or blocks bonus on Wednesday. With a middle-of-the-road salary, Provorov again carries value and elevated ownership possibilities. One throws splits out the window when a defenseman is averaging over four shots a game and over two blocked shots a contest as well.
Rostering players against the grain a bit may pay off tonight. Take advantage of it! Value plays are very hit and miss tonight because of how this slate is set up. Keep that in mind as one is looking at stacking lines and creating lineups. Players like Travis Hamonic and Sean Walker carry some intrigue from the value tier.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (the shorter slate and risk are high tonight).
Note: If you do roster a goalie that seems higher-risk to you, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch to see who starts for Los Angeles, etc. There were no confirmations at press time. However, one is looking for shot volume and marginally decent matchups. Philipp Grubauer will be the highest-owned starter tonight if he starts. The key tonight may just be patience in waiting to see who starts and does not start. Confirmations on social media should come for the later games closer to that 7:30 pm EDT lock.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- WPG PP 1
- Ehlers/ Connor/ Scheifele (Morrissey, D-men add on) -- This may shift but Ehlers and Schiefele safe.
- BUF 1
- Olofsson/ Cozens/ Reinhart? (Montour add on)
- SJS 1
- Kane / Couture / Labanc? (Karlsson, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: PHI PP 1, VGK PP 1, LAK1, VAN 2, SJS 2, WPG 2 (Watch to see what shifts in the late games especially with Los Angeles and Vegas).
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
