RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, March 10th, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/10
-
- Vegas Golden Knights vs. Minnesota Wild
- Ottawa Senators vs. Edmonton Oilers
- Los Angeles Kings vs. Anaheim Ducks
- Arizona Coyotes vs. Colorado Avalanche
- Montreal Canadiens vs. Vancouver Canucks
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a five-game main slate, picking the right goalie is still important but not life and death. Out of the 12 goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one choose the right North Division clash or utilize both perhaps? They are both great questions. Picking between these goaltenders may just be too rough of a proposition for most to stomach.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Anaheim Ducks vs. Los Angeles Kings. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Also, Arizona and Colorado could be unexpectedly filled with offense which will make life on the goalies difficult. There will be plenty of questions.
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The Edmonton Oilers and Ottawa Senators offer the most scoring potential but there could be many surprises. Minnesota and Vegas should feature more goals than Monday's brilliant goalie duel. Anaheim and Los Angeles have problems with consistency. Which players can one trust?
It will be a bit more challenging on this slate to stack lines, etc but also easier to go with one-offs, etc.
The Arizona and Colorado game is a true wildcard. How will Nathan MacKinnon be in his likely return? That is something which should be answered early.
Finally, the Montreal Canadiens and Vancouver Canucks get together. Typically, these are higher-scoring games but again anything can happen. Consider, both teams are a bit vulnerable down the middle defensively. They both have high-powered offenses. Chances may be lower than usual but probably will feature higher quality. Monday unexpectedly brought at 2-1 result after it was 1-0 until the last minute of regulation. Do not expect that again.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!
NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple again but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,300 DK / $8,800 FD) - McDavid is our top pick because of the matchup against Ottawa. He has gone without a point in his last two games but the last contest versus Toronto was more like the normal McDavid. The center fired six shots on Michael Hutchinson but none went in. He had five scoring chances and hit a post. Really, McDavid performed well but just did not score. It just does not get much better than the center other than maybe Nathan MacKinnon. MacKinnon is facing one of the worst defenses in Vancouver on Wednesday night. MacKinnon expects to make his return tonight after suffering a concussion a little over a week ago. He is a few hundred dollars cheaper if McDavid is too risky for your palettes. Even Mikko Rantanen (qualifies at center on DraftKings) may be on one's radar. Even Anze Kopitar against a weaker Anaheim team has to be on one's radar.
- Adam Henrique, ANA ($4,000 DK / $4,200 FD) - We are digging lower as Henrique provides middle-tier production at more of a value salary. The shot volume has been scattered and a bit mixed but he does have four goals and seven points in his last ten games. With Anaheim and Los Angeles playing off their comfort zone, a few more scores could be had more than usual. Christian Dvorak is one to watch in this price tier as well against Colorado tonight.
This is again a smallish medium slate. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. It seems expected. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with San Jose and Colorado. Then, there are lineup decisions with Colorado and Arizona that may not come till too close to the start of the slate.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Tyler Toffoli, MTL ($7,000 DK / $6,600 FD) - It is too hard not to try and take one more shot at this with Toffoli now. He looked great over the weekend and again on Monday night versus Anaheim. Toffoli has been incredible against the Vancouver Canucks this season and had four shots with four scoring chances on Monday night in the 2-1 SO loss. Toffoli has eight goals in six games versus the Canucks on 29 shots. That is averaging nearly five shots a night which brings the DraftKings shot bonus into play. Vancouver has a bottom-five defense and the history between Toffoli and Vancouver is well documented.
- Brady Tkachuk, OTT ($6,900 DK / $6,500 FD) - Tkachuk has been a shot machine with 47 shots on goal in his last ten games. He has nabbed the shot bonus in three out of his last four starts. Overall, the forward has just seven points in the previous ten contests but has averaged nearly four scoring chances a night. Many have been of the medium and high-danger variety. Edmonton is the type of team that will allow its fair share of opportunities and can be plagued by inconsistent goaltending. Tkachuk is a nice option, especially on DraftKings.
- Trevor Zegras, ANA ($3,100 DK / $3,300 FD) - Zegras did not disappoint on Monday night with several quality chances. This is purely a punt play on Wednesday but the winger is just difficult to contain. His vision on the ice is that of a top-line forward in the NHL already. If he starts cranking his shot and gets a bit more playing time, a multiple-point night may be possible against Los Angeles.
- Clayton Keller, ARZ ($4,500 DK/ $6,500 FD) - Keller and Conor Garland could be joined at the hip here. A mini-stack of the two young forwards could be something to look at. Just monitor the situation a bit before making a decision. Either way, Keller has three goals and ten points in his previous nine outings. He is averaging nearly 2.5 shots a game in this span and creating almost a full scoring chance more a night. If he is active on the puck and motivated, he is producing. It is that simple for Keller. This is all about consistency and focus -- not talent. Keller will get his opportunities playing with Phil Kessel in some situations.
Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Simply watch to see line shifts in Edmonton and Anaheim. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Drew Doughty, LAK ($5,500 DK / $6,100 FD) - Doughty again gets the nod tonight. The Los Angeles stalwart defenseman averages right around two blocks and two shots a night. He has nine points (seven assists) in his last ten games. Also, Doughty has 13 power-play points and four goals. Few expected Doughty to even come close to maintaining this pace but here we are. Doughty has three assists in the last two games and that should not scare people off. He has three assists in two games versus the Ducks this year while averaging nearly three scoring chances, three shots, and two blocked shots a meeting. The "Freeway Faceoff" expects to be another wild game. Jeff Petry is again another alternative from Montreal versus a poor Vancouver penalty kill.
- Jonas Brodin, MIN ($4,800 DK / $4,100 FD) - Let's keep this simple. Brodin's blocked shot potential is huge again on Wednesday night as the defenseman has pulled six blocks off three times in the last five outings. With his ability to get a few pucks on the net, the idea is to head down the tiers to find plays that can yield a bit more value even on a five-game slate. Look at Jakob Chychrun and particularly at FanDuel where he is still a cheap $4,500.
Sneaking in Sam Girard from Colorado could be worth a shot on Wednesday. He is a risk from a volume standpoint but his production is noteworthy given the absence of Cale Makar. Take advantage of it! Value plays are very hit and miss tonight because of how this slate is set up. Keep that in mind as one is looking at stacking lines and creating lineups.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (the shorter slate and a possible Demko-Price duel)
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch to see who starts for Minnesota, etc. There were no confirmations at press time. However, one is looking for shot volume and marginally decent matchups. Marc-Andre Fleury has been incredible for Vegas going 12-4 with a goals saved above average that rivals Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- COL PP 1
- MacKinnon/ Landeskog/ Rantanen (Girard, D-men add on)
- ARZ 1
- Keller/ Dvorak/ Garland? (Ekman-Larsson, D-men add on)
- ANA 2
- Zegras/ Henrique/ Silfverberg (Fowler [high-risk], D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: LAK1, MIN 2, VGK 1, EDM PP 1, OTT 1 or 2, MIN 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
