NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (3/17): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

4 years ago by Chris Wassel

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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is rolling along and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, March 17th, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/17

- Vancouver Canucks vs. Ottawa Senators
- Philadelphia Flyers vs. New York Rangers
- Montreal Canadiens vs. Winnipeg Jets
- San Jose Sharks vs. Vegas Golden Knights
- Edmonton Oilers vs. Calgary Flames
- St. Louis Blues vs. Los Angeles Kings

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis

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With a six-game slate, picking the right goalie is still important but not life and death. Out of the 12 goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one choose the right North Division clash? They are both great questions. Picking between these goaltenders may just be too rough of a proposition for most to stomach.

The matchup that generates some intrigue is the St. Louis Blues vs. Los Angeles Kings. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Also, San Jose and Vegas could be unexpectedly filled with offense which will make life on the goalies difficult. There will be plenty of questions.

NHL DFS Power Play Analysis

The Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames offer the most scoring potential but there could be many surprises. Minnesota and Vegas should feature more goals than Monday's brilliant goalie duel. St. Louis and Los Angeles have problems with consistency. Which players can one trust?

It will be a bit more challenging on this slate to stack lines, etc but also easier to go with one-offs, etc.

The Montreal and Winnipeg game is a true wildcard. How will Montreal contain Kyle Connor on the power play? Both teams had issues on the penalty kill on Monday night.

Finally, the Philadelphia Flyers and New York Rangers get together. Typically, these are higher-scoring games but again anything can happen. Consider, both teams are a bit vulnerable down the middle defensively. They both have high-powered offenses. Chances may be lower than usual but probably will feature higher quality. Monday produced a 5-4 result and something close to that could occur again.

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple again but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,200 DK / $9,100 FD) - McDavid is our top pick because of the matchup against Calgary. He has another point streak going and has hit the DraftKings shot bonus five times in the last ten contests. The center fired three shots on Monday against Calgary and picked up an assist. He had five scoring chances and hit a crossbar. Really, McDavid performed well but just did not score a goal. It just does not get much better than the center other than maybe Sean Couturier or Claude Giroux against the New York Rangers. With Alexandar Georgiev starting, the green light to Philadelphia players is likely on.
Tomas Hertl, SJS ($4,400 DK / $5,800 FD) - We are digging lower as Hertl provides middle-tier production at more of a value salary on DraftKings. The shot volume has been scattered and a bit mixed but he does have four goals and seven points in his last ten games. With the way San Jose and Vegas often play pace-wise, expect Hertl to maybe get a jolt at least scoring chance wise which increases point potential. See what line shifts may happen in Ottawa as a few value centers could be in play there -- just depends on usage.

This is again a smallish medium slate. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. It seems expected. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with San Jose and Vegas. Then, there are lineup decisions with St. Louis and Los Angeles that may not come till too close to the start of the slate.

NHL DFS Wing Picks

Tyler Toffoli, MTL ($6,800 DK / $6,500 FD) - It is too hard not to try and take one more shot at this with Toffoli now. He looked great again versus Winnipeg and had six shots on goal on Monday with two goals and an assist. He has six points in the previous three meetings versus the Jets. Some will look to go McDavid-Draisaitl on FanDuel but it may be okay to come down in price a bit with Toffoli. The Winnipeg penalty kill can be an adventure and this is where we can sidestep Mark Scheifele at center and go with a Kyle Connor for example.
Brady Tkachuk, OTT ($7,300 DK / $6,500 FD) - Tkachuk has been a shot machine with 43 shots on goal in his last ten games. He has nabbed the shot bonus in five of his previous nine starts. Overall, the forward has just seven points in the previous ten contests but has averaged nearly four scoring chances a night. Many have been of the medium and high-danger variety. Vancouver is the type of team that will allow its fair share of opportunities and can be plagued by stressed goaltending. Tkachuk is a nice option, especially on DraftKings. The thought process is he will not keep shooting around 7% forever. Artemi Panarin looks ready to roll tonight after an excellent night on Monday against the porous Philadelphia defense. Philadelphia and New York wingers could make for a mini-game stack.
Timo Meier, SJS ($5,300 DK / $5,600 FD) - Meier has not disappointed lately and has four goals with seven assists in the last ten games. Away from home, Meier has been averaging over three shots a game, and his numbers are starting to come around especially chance and point-wise. Even his possession numbers are creeping up. Basically, we are seeing the old Meier more and more. People forget that Meier had 70-plus point potential not too long ago. The only "weakness" is special teams but even there, Meier is starting to see more power-play time.
Paul Stastny, WPG ($3,800 DK/ $5,300 FD) - Stastny is one of those players where riding the wave may be okay -- especially with his lower price on DraftKings. He has six goals in the last nine games with a couple of assists. While Stastny is averaging just over two shots a game, that is progress for the forward. Tonight is a little more about exploring a variety of options and then matching them with stacks and one-off plays. Stastny is seeing more work as a second-line "center" while getting power-play time in key situations.

Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Simply watch to see line shifts in the later games. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Ivan Provorov, PHI ($4,200 DK / $5,300 FD) - Provorov gets another look tonight as the defenseman is looking better especially on DraftKings despite a low price. He is averaging 2.5 shots and nearly 2.5 blocks per game over the past ten contests. That increase in floor goes along with six points in this span. The more he asserts himself and gets his shot through, the more chances he will have. Provorov has a sneaky shot like Jeff Petry. It is why players like him and Petry have good point possibilities tonight. The New York and Winnipeg defenses are expected to allow a good number of unblocked shot attempts from the point on Wednesday.
Josh Morrissey, WPG ($3,800 DK / $4,800 FD) - Let's keep this simple. Morrissey's blocked shot potential is huge again on Wednesday night as the defenseman has pulled three blocks off three times in the last five outings. With his ability to get a few pucks on the net, the idea is to head down the tiers to find plays that can yield a bit more value even on a six-game slate (has hit DraftKings bonus twice in the last three games). Look at Neal Pionk if one is looking for a bit more assist potential but one will have to spend up a bit.

Rostering players against the grain a bit may pay off tonight. Take advantage of it! Value plays are very hit and miss tonight because of how this slate is set up. Keep that in mind as one is looking at stacking lines and creating lineups. Players like Nic Hague and Adam Larsson could surprise again tonight.

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.

Goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (the shorter slate and possibly another high-volume Demko start against Ottawa)

Note: If you do roster a goalie that seems higher-risk to you, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch to see who starts for Los Angeles, etc. There were no confirmations at press time. However, one is looking for shot volume and marginally decent matchups. Marc-Andre Fleury has been incredible for Vegas and gets a reasonable matchup against San Jose. The key tonight may just be patience in waiting to see who starts and does not start.