RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, May 17th, 2020 at 7:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/17
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- Boston Bruins (-125) vs. Washington Capitals - 5.5U
- Nashville Predators vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-180) - 5O
- St. Louis Blues vs Colorado Avalanche (-250) - 5.5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Boston | 4 | 29 | 18 | 3 | 19 |
| Washington | 17 | 20 | 27 | 16 | 14.5 |
| Nashville | 9 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 11 |
| Carolina | 4 | 24 | 21 | 5 | 13.25 |
| St. Louis | 19 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 17.5 |
| Colorado | 3 | 31 | 31 | 2 | 18.25 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP Rank | Opp PK Rank |
| Boston | 10 | 5 |
| Washington | 3 | 2 |
| Nashville | 23 | 3 |
| Carolina | 2 | 29 |
| St. Louis | 6 | 8 |
| Colorado | 8 | 24 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Nathan MacKinnon, COL ($8,600 DK / $8,400 FD) - The Blues draw a very tough assignment for their opening-round matchup as they face off against Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche. MacKinnon has tortured the Blues this year as he has scored six goals and registered eight assists in eight games while taking 41 shots on goal. MacKinnon looks to be a lock play in all formats and fading him in cash games could be a very bad mistake.
Other centers to consider:
- High Priced- Aho, O'Rielly
- Mid-Tier- Trocheck, Kadri, Oshie
- Value- Eller, Johansen, Duchene
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- David Pastrnak, BOS ($7,500 DK / $7,400 FD) - Pastrnak has now scored a point in five straight games and was able to record an assist against the Caps on Saturday night during game 1 of their opening-round series against Washington. Pastrnak took six shots on goal and we should expect him to continue to have the green light when he has the puck so this makes him viable in all formats. Washington has struggled to contain Pastrnak all season long as he has scored three goals and notched six assists in eight games so he certainly has upside in this matchup.
Other wings to consider:
- High Priced- Rantanen, Ovechkin, Landeskog
- Mid-Tier- Svechnikov, Hall, Burakovsky, Teravainen, Mantha, Tarasenko
- Value- Necas, Schenn, Wilson, Smith, Kyrou, Tolvanen, Saad
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Dougie Hamilton, CAR ($6,600 DK / $6,200 FD) - Hamilton was held out for the Canes final regular-season game but he should be good to go for their opening game against the Predators on Monday. Hamilton racks up peripheral stats and points which makes him an elite defenseman from a DFS perspective. He should be deployed in all formats, especially at a reduced price point on DK.
Other defensemen to consider:
- High Priced- Josi, Makar, Carlson
- Mid-Tier- Ellis, Toews,
- Value- Grzelcyk, Parayko, Ekholm, Skjei, Pesce
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Philipp Grubauer, COL ($8,400 DK / $8,300 FD) - Grubauer has been excellent this season for the Avs as he went 30-9-1 in the regular season and finished with a 1.95 goals allowed average and a .922 save percentage. He also fared well when facing the Blues as he went 2-1 while stopping 76 out of 81 total shots faced while also posting one shutout. The Avs look to be healthy and poised to make a run at the cup so riding their goalie in game 1 against St. Louis would be a way to go in all formats.
Other goalies to consider:
- High Priced- Rask, CAR goalie
- Mid-Tier-
- Value- Saros
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- COL 1
- Landeskog/ MacKinnon/ Rantanen (Makar, D-men add on)
- If you're planning on spending up for a full line on this three-game slate, the top choice should be the MacKinnon line for Colorado. In just 50 minutes of ice time against St. Louis, this line has scored five full-strength goals while generating 28 scoring chances for and nine high-danger opportunities while sporting a 65.26 corsi for percentage. They have 2.72 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes and have found a way to score 10 goals altogether at all strengths against the Blues in the regular season.
- Landeskog/ MacKinnon/ Rantanen (Makar, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: CAR 1, WSH 1, BOS 2, CAR 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
