NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/14): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Sunday, March 14th, 2020 at 5:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/14

- New York Islanders (-180) vs. New Jersey Devils - 5.5U
- Carolina Hurricanes (-240) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 5.5O
- Dallas Stars (-125) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets - 5.5U
- Los Angeles Kings vs. Colorado Avalanche (-240) - 5.5O
- Toronto Maple Leafs (-245) vs. Ottawa Senators - 6.5O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Carolina	8	19	30	5	14.25
Detroit	29	9	4	26	18.25
New York Islanders	1	28	15	14	13.75
New Jersey	21	12	6	20	15.5
Dallas	6	30	13	30	16.75
Columbus	26	9	9	22	19.5
Los Angeles	12	7	16	24	9.25
Colorado	5	31	16	2	19
Toronto	9	25	27	11	11.5
Ottawa	31	3	7	5	18

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP Rank	Opp PK Rank
Carolina	1	29
Detroit	30	10
New York Islanders	15	30
New Jersey	29	9
Dallas	11	28
Columbus	25	17
Los Angeles	7	4
Colorado	13	8
Toronto	2	26
Ottawa	26	21

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Auston Matthews, TOR ($9,300 DK / $9,1000 FD) - There are two pay-up options at the center position today and the preferred option would be Auston Matthews. Matthews has been very successful against Ottawa this season as he has scored six goals and tallied up four assists in just five games played this year.
Mathew Barzal, NYI ($6,100 DK / $6,900 FD) - Barzal is more of a tournament option on this slate but could still be viable in cash games as well. Barzal is a very talented center and has one goal and four assists in five games against New Jersey this season.
Jason Dickinson, DAL ($3,000 DK / $3,000 FD) - Dickinson could be a good value just because of who he is skating with. Dickinson is featured on the Stars second line and will be skating with Jamie Benn and Denis Gurianov who are two of the more talented forwards on this Stars squad.

Other centers to consider: MacKinnon, Aho, Kopitar, Staal, Pageau, Jenner, Tierney, Anisimov

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Mitch Marner, TOR ($8,200 DK / $7,800 FD) - If spending up for Matthews, you might want to consider paying for Marner as well. Marner has scored a point in three straight games and has generated eight points in just five games against the Senators this season.
Oliver Bjorkstrand, CBJ ($5,300 DK / $5,900 FD) - The pricing on Bjorkstrand is starting to rise but he is still a viable option on both sites for this slate. Over his last three games played, Bjorkstrand has taken 11 shots on goal and has scored five points. Bjorkstrand has found success against Dallas this season as he has netted two goals and collected two assists in five games played.
Kieffer Bellows, NYI ($2,500 DK / $3,000 FD) - Kieffer Bellows gets a nice bump up with Anders Lee being out of the lineup due to injury. Bellows is now skating with Mathew Barzal and Jordan Eberle on the top line for the Islanders and is min priced on both sites. He is coming off of a two-goal performance against New Jersey and this is the upside we are looking for with him skating on the top line for New York.

Other wings to consider: Rantanen, Tkachuk, Svechnikov, Atkinson, Laine, Niederreiter, Benn, Eberle, Batherson, Gurianov, Burakovsky, Foligno, Robertson, Fast, Wahlstrom

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Dougie Hamilton, CAR ($7,100 DK / $5,900 FD) - Hamilton offers one of the best floors on the entire slate and should be in strong consideration for your cash game lineups. Hamilton has recorded a point in seven straight games and does a great job racking up peripheral stats in addition to generating points in general.
Seth Jones, CBJ ($5,400 DK / $5,000 FD) - Jones has been in a little bit of a slump lately as he has gone five straight games without scoring a point but usually, this is the time to start rostering a guy in hopes he breaks out of his slump. The pricing on Jones is solid on both sites and even if he doesn't record a point, he can still hit value through racking up peripheral stats.
Noah Dobson, NSH ($4,300 DK / $3,800 FD) - Dobson is back to being featured on the top power-play unit for the Islanders which makes him viable on this slate. While he isn't the safest option on the slate, he will be quarterbacking the Islanders power-play unit which will be facing one of the worst penalty-killing teams in the entire NHL.

Other defensemen to consider: Chabot, Rielly, Girard, Doughty, Toews, Klingberg, Pulock, Werenski, Subban, Djoos

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Ilya Sorokin, NYI ($8,100 DK / $8,700 FD) - Ilya Sorokin could get the nod in the net on Sunday against the Devils as Semyon Varlamov started Saturday night and grabbed a 3-2 win against New Jersey. Sorokin is 5-2-1 on the season with a 2.25 goals allowed average and a .906 save percentage and is 1-1 with a 2.55 goals allowed average against the Devils his season. New York looks to be one of the larger favorites on the slate and Sorokin could be a safe play in all formats.
James Reimer, CAR ($8,400 DK / $8,300 FD) - Reimer has been fantastic for the Canes this season as he is 12-3 on the season with a 2.71 goals allowed average and a .908 save percentage. Reimer has won four straight games that he has started and has seen over 30+ shot attempts in six out of his last 10 games started so the save upside is there for him.

Other goalies to consider: Miska, Andersen

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

TOR 1
- Hyman/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, d-men add on)
  - The top line for Toronto will be a popular option on this slate against the Senators. When at even strength, this line is producing an expected goal for per 60 rate of 3.21 while generating 37.21 scoring chances for and 15.79 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. Marner and Matthews will skate with each other at full strength and on the power play so rostering them with Rielly could be a great three-man stack to consider that will be fully correlated throughout the game.
COL 1
- Landeskog/ MacKinnon/ Rantanen (Girard, d-men add on)
  - If wanting to come off of the chalkier Toronto stack, the tops Avs line is also in play as well. This line is carrying a 3.37 expected goals for rate at even strength and is generating 40.45 scoring chances for and 15.35 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. In just three games played against Los Angeles, this line has generated two goals and is carrying a 3.38 expected goals for per 60 minutes against them.
CAR 1
- Neiderrieter/ Aho/ Necas (Hamilton, d-men add on)
  - The top line for the Canes could go a tad overlooked on this slate due to the other high-profile stacks in Toronto and Colorado. This line is producing a 3.39 expected goals for rate in 20 minutes of ice time while generating 32.78 scoring chances for and 17.88 high-danger chances for per 60. Aho, Neiderreiter, and Hamilton are fully correlated on the power play and at even strength and could be a good three-man stack to build around if you're struggling to build around Toronto and Colorado.