NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/16): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Tuesday, March 16th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/16

• • Boston Bruins (-104) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-118) - 5.5O
  • Carolina Hurricanes (-240) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 5.5O
  • Buffalo Sabres vs. New Jersey Devils (-141) - 5.5O
  • New York Islanders vs. Washington Capitals (-121) - 5.5O
  • Arizona Coyotes vs. Minnesota Wild (-200) - 5.5U
  • Tampa Bay Lightning (-148) vs. Dallas Stars - 5.5U
  • Anaheim Ducks vs. Colorado Avalanche (-280) - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Nathan MacKinnon, COL ($9,100 DK / $8,600 FD) - MacKinnon is starting to heat up as he has scored a goal in back-to-back games and has taken 18 shots over his last four games played. MacKinnon has only registered one point against the Ducks this year but he has taken eight shots on just a two-game span against them.
• Brock Nelson, NYI ($5,300 DK / $5,800 FD) - The mid-range center spot is a tough spot to choose from and if you're looking for someone who has been in great form then consider Brock Nelson. Nelson has scored a goal in three out of his last four games played and has taken 14 shots over that four-game stretch.
• Evgeny Kuznetsov, WSH ($4,100 DK / $6,400 FD) - Kuznetsov is really heating up as he scored a point last night in his fourth straight game. Kuznetsov really had a cold spell a few weeks which caused his pricing to drop all of the way down to the low 4k range over on DK but with him starting to heat up, it makes sense to ride the hot streak over the next couple of games while he still remains a bargain play.

Other centers to consider: Bergeron, Crosby, Aho, Kadri, Barzal, Backstrom, Eriksson Ek, Pageau, Zacha, Hartman, Rask

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Mikko Rantanen, COL ($8,000 DK / $8,100 FD) - If spending up at the winger position, you can never truly go wrong with Mikko Rantanen. Rantanen has generated a point in three of his last four games and has scored four goals in four games against Anaheim this year.
• Kevin Fiala, MIN ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD) - Kevin Fiala can be a pretty streaky winger, and now is a great time to hop on board the Fiala train. He is coming off of a two-point outing against the Coyotes and has scored two goals and an assist in four games this season against Arizona.
• Kieffer Bellows, NYI ($3,200 DK / $3,000 FD) - As long as Bellows continues to skate on the top line for the Islanders, he certainly remains in play. Bellows has scored three goals over his last two games and should continue to get a bump while he skates alongside skaters like Barzal and Eberle.

Other wings to consider: Pastrnak, Ovechkin, Stamkos, Landeskog, Kaprizov, Svechnikov, Necas, Eberle, Benn, Burakovsky, Keller, Kapanen, Palmieri, Bailey, GreenwayParise, Kuokkanen, McGinn, Foegele, Thompson

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Doug Hamilton, CAR ($6,900 DK / $6,100 FD) - Hamilton has now scored a point in eight straight games and the matchup against Detroit makes it seem like he could possibly extend it to nine straight games. Hamilton has done well against Detroit this year as he has registered a goal and three assists in four games this year against Detroit while taking nine shots on goal and blocking four shots.
• Ryan Pulock, NYI ($5,000 DK / $4,800 FD) - While Pulock isn't quite the point-scoring defenseman like Hamilton or Hedman, he provides a good fantasy floor as he is averaging close to four peripheral stats per game and could see more ice time as he is skating on the top defensemen pairing and is also quarterbacking the top Islanders power-play unit.
• Kevin Shattenkirk, ANA ($4,200 DK / $4,000 FD) - Kevin Shattenkirk has been a pretty consistent fantasy player recently as he has produced a point in three of his last four games while also averaging over four peripheral stats per game during that four-game stretch. He offers a good floor on those peripheral stats and sees a good amount of ice time as he also skates on the Ducks top power play.

Other defensemen to consider: Hedman, Carlson, Chychrun, Toews, Brodin, Girard, Klingberg, Grzelcyk, Mayfield, OEL, Suter, Schultz 

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Philipp Grubauer, COL ($8,500 DK / $8,500 FD) - Grubauer looks to be the safest goalie choice on the entire slate. Grubauer is 15-7 on the season with a 1.91 goals allowed average and a .923 save percentage. He has faced the Ducks three times this year and has gone 2-1 with a 1.97 goals allowed average and had a .925 save percentage against them. The one downside to the Grubauer play is that the Ducks struggle to generate shots which hurts the upside for Grubauer from a fantasy perspective but if you're looking for someone that has both a win and shoutout potential then Gurbauer is your choice.
• James Reimer, CAR ($8,400 DK / $8,300 FD) - James Reimer has won four straight games and is now 12-3 on the season with a 2.71 goals allowed average and a .908 save percentage for the Canes this season. Reimer has only allowed eight goals over his last four games and gets to face a Detroit squad that is only scoring 2.2 goals per game on the offensive end. While the price point is high, Reimer has shutout capability in this matchup against the Red Wings.
• Kaapo Kahkonen, MIN ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD) - Kaapo Kahkonen has been one of the hotter goalies in the entire league as he has won eight straight starts and is 11-4 with a 2.19 goals allowed average and a .922 save percentage. Kahkonen is 1-0 against the Coyotes this season and in his lone start against them, he stopped 24 of 25 shots faced and racked up a .960 save percentage.

Other goalies to consider: Blackwood, DeSmith, Raanta

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• COL 1
  • Landeskog/ MacKinnon/ Rantanen (Girard, d-men add on)
    • The MacKinnon line for the Avs will be a very popular stack and might carry the highest ownership on the slate. In just two games against the Ducks, this line has totaled two goals scored while generating 22 scoring chances and seven high danger chances in 28 total minutes. On the year, this line has a 3.3 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes of ice time while generating 39.74 scoring chances for and 15.56 high danger chances for per 60 minutes.
• CAR 1
  • Niederreiter/ Aho/ Necas (Hamilton, d-men add on) 
    • The Canes top line is moderately priced on all sites and they have the potential to generate several points against the Red Wings. This top-line trio has seen just 35 minutes of ice time together but is sporting a 2.34 expected goals for rate while generating 25.54 scoring chances for and 13.62 high danger chances for per 60 minutes. The Canes lines are playing at a slower pace but are getting quality looks based on that high danger chances number. Necas, Aho, and Hamilton are fully correlated on the top line and top power-play unit and would make for a very strong three-man stack on this slate.
• NJD 2
  • Johnsson/ Hughes/ Bratt
    • The Devils are making a rare appearance as a favorite stack but with them being home favorites and facing Buffalo, it is hard to not consider them. The line that stands out the most is the second line which is a line that has skated together for over 85 minutes. The Hughes line is generating a 2.56 expected goals for rate per 60 while also generating 30.87 scoring chances for and 13.33 high danger chances for per 60 minutes. This line has generated four even-strength goals on the season and has totaled 44 scoring chances so this could be a second line to target on this slate.

Other Stacks to consider: WSH 1, BOS 1, NYI 2, PIT 1, MIN 1

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: MacKinnon (1.25X), Point (1.4X), Eriksson EK (1.85X), Kuznetsov (1.9X)

W: Pastrnak (1.15X), Svechnikov (1.35X), Marchand (1.45X), Rantanen (1.6X)

D: Hedman (1.1X), Hamilton (1.25X), Brodin (1.4X), Girard (1.8X)

G: Vasilevskiy (1.2X), Grubauer (1.3X), Kahkonen (1.45X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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