NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/21): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Sunday, March 21st, 2020 at 4:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/21

- Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-140) - 6O
- Vegas Golden Knights (-175) vs. Los Angeles Kings - 5.5O
- Nashville Predators vs. Dallas Stars (-170) - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Florida	11	13	29	2	15.75
Tampa Bay	5	26	31	8	15.5
Vegas	1	27	28	9	16.5
Los Angeles	14	8	14	24	14.75
Nashville	21	14	3	14	17.75
Dallas	6	30	11	25	13.25

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP Rank	Opp PK Rank
Florida	11	6
Tampa Bay	2	11
Vegas	23	4
Los Angeles	9	4
Nashville	20	17
Dallas	13	30

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Akeksander Barkov, FLA ($8,000 DK / $7,400 FD) - The top play at center is Aleksander Barkov. Barkov is having a fantastic season as he has scored 35 points in just 30 games and has scored seven points over his last four games played. He has found success against Tampa this year by finding the back of the net once and recorded two assists in just three games played.
William Karlsson, VGK ($4,800 DK / $5,700 FD) - Karlsson might not have the highest upside on this slate but the fact that his line will avoid the Kopitar line only makes him more in play. Karlsson has recorded two goals and two assists in three games against the Kings this season and has generated a point in three of his last four games played.

Other centers to consider: Point, Pavelski, Hintz, Stephenson, Wennberg, Glass

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Max Pacioretty, VGK ($8,400 DK / $8,200 FD) - Pacioretty continues to be one of the safest plug-and-play wingers in all of NHL DFS. He's scored eight points over his last four games while taking 14 shots on goal during that stretch. Pacioretty has been successful against the Kings this season as he has scored two goals and four assists in just three games this season.
Denis Gurianov, DAL ($4,600 DK / $4,300 FD) - For the price point that Gurianov is at, he certainly could be a high upside type of play on this slate. Gurianov has scored two goals and notched one assist against Nashville this year while also taking a remarkable 16 shots on goal in that three-game stretch.

Other wings to consider: Forsberg, Stamkos, Stone, Hornqvist, Huberdeau, Marchessault, Benn, Cirelli, Verhaeghe, Robertson Smith, Tolvanen

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Victor Hedman, TBL ($6,700 DK / $6,900 FD) - Hedman is one of the best peripheral stat getters in the entire league and is playing at a point-per-game pace halfway through the regular season. Hedman has scored six points over his last three games and has registered three assists in three games against the Panthers this year.
Alexandre Carrier, NSH ($3,900 DK / $3,500 FD) - The Preds are still missing some of their defensive stars like Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis so guys like Alexandre Carrier are getting valuable playing time. Carrier has been very solid over his last five games as he has racked up five peripheral stats per game over that stretch while also scoring two points along the way. He is seeing over 20+ minutes per game and makes for a great value play at the defensive position.

Other defensemen to consider: Theodore, Ekblad, Martinez, Klingberg, Doughty, Sergachev, Hague, Oleksiak

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($8,300 DK / $8,500 FD) - With Robin Lehner joining the fold on Friday, we could expect to see Fleury in the pipes for their game on Sunday against the Kings. Fleury has been dominant this year as he is 16-5 while carrying a 1.87 goals allowed average and a .933 save percentage. Fleury is riding a four-game win streak and is currently 1-0 against the Kings this year. In his lone start against LA earlier this year, Fleury stopped 27 of 29 shots and he makes for a great play in all formats for this slate.
Sergei Bobrovsky, FLA ($7,100 DK / $7,700 FD) - While it normally isn't the best idea to use a goalie against Tampa, Bobrovsky could be a high-upside play going up against them. Bobrovsky is having a great year as he is 12-3-2 on the season with a 2.90 goals allowed average and a .906 save percentage. In just two games this year, Bobrovsky is 1-1 against Tampa Bay and he stopped 41 of 49 shots in these two games. It is a riskier play but the pricing, upside, and somewhat contrarian play makes him intriguing on this three-game slate.

Other goalies to consider: Oettinger

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

FLA 1
- Verhaeghe/ Barkov/ Duclair (Ekblad, d-men add on)
  - The top Panthers line could go a tad overlooked on this three-game slate due to the tougher matchup against Tampa. The Barkov line for the Panthers has been very good this season as they have generated 14 5v5 goals and carry a 3.55 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes of ice time. In addition to having a high goals for rate, they are generating 36.57 scoring chances for and 16.67 high-danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice itme.
VGK 2
- Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith (Weber, d-men add on)
  - The top line for Vegas is certainly in play but their upside could be hampered a bit due to the Kopitar line looking to line match against them which means the Karlsson line for Vegas could draw the better matchups throughout the game. The second line for Vegas has a 2.91 expected goals for rate on the season (276 minutes of ice itme) and is generating 34.74 scoring chances for and 12.81 high danger chances for per 60 minutes. In 32 minutes of ice time against the Kings, this second line has scored four 5v5 goals and has generated 21 scoring chances and seven high danger chances while only allowing 10 scoring chances and three high danger opportunities to the Kings.