RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Wednesday, August 26th, 2020 at 3:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/26
- New York Islanders (-110) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-110)
- Tampa Bay Lightning (-108) vs. Boston Bruins (-108)
- Colorado Avalanche (-140) vs. Dallas Stars (+120)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| NY Islanders | 4 | 23 | 22 | 13 | 14.5 |
| Colorado | 1 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 9.5 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 21 | 13 | 18 | 14.75 |
| Tampa Bay | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Boston | 14 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 9.75 |
| Dallas | 17 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 14.25 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Boston | 8 | 9 |
| Tampa Bay | 20 | 6 |
| Vancouver | 6 | 7 |
| Vegas | 7 | 15 |
| Dallas | 7 | 14 |
| Colorado | 6 | 7 |
| Colorado | 6 | 7 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Nathan MacKinnon ($8,500 DK/ $8,800 FD)
If you are wanting the best floor for your cash game lineup, MacKinnon is the one to defer to. He has scored 11 points in the last four games played and is averaging over five shots per game during that stretch. Even though he carries a high price tag on both sites, he is worth every penny with the way he has been playing.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Mathew Barzal ($6,300 DK/ $6,600 FD)
- Brayden Point ($6,000 DK/ $8,000 FD)
2) DFS Winger: David Pastrnak ($7,700 DK/ $8,600 FD)
If you decide to fade MacKinnon, another high priced stud that has been on fire has been David Pastrnak. He has scored two points in each of his last four games played and is averaging over 20 DK points per game during that four-game stretch.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Brad Marchand ($6,600 DK/ $7,800 FD)
- Anders Lee ($5,700 DK/ $6,700 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: John Klingberg ($5,200 DK / $6,200 FD)
Klingberg is in a solid pricing spot on both sites that make him viable for both cash games and tournaments. While he hasn't shown the most upside, he has been consistent with his peripheral stats which can aid if he fails to score a point of some sort. With the Stars averaging five goals per game against the Avs throughout this series so far, Klingberg is due for a goal!
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Ryan Pulock ($5,400 DK/ $5,300 FD)
- Cale Makar ($6,000 DK/ $5,500 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Semyon Varlamov ($7,400 DK/ $8,400 FD)
The Flyers have been a hot mess on offense lately and have only scored 11 total goals in the last six games played. The Islanders are riding a wave of momentum as they dominated the Capitals in five games and then turned around and shutout the Flyers in game 1 of the series. Varlamov is 3-0 against Philadelphia this season and is only allowing two goals per game against them which is pretty low. With his price tag being low on DK, he is viable in both cash game and tournament lineups.
Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- J.G. Pageau ($4,600 DK/ $4,800 FD)
- Joe Pavelski ($4,900 DK/ $5,700 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Denis Gurianov ($4,400 DK/ $5,100 FD)
- Jonas Donskoi ($3,700 DK/ $3,900 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Jamie Oleksiak ($2,800 DK/ $4,000 FD)
- Kevin Shattenkirk ($3,000 DK/ $3,900 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Anton Khudobin ($7,300 DK/ $7,500 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
We finally have more than two games on this slate which means ownership will be down a bit across the board on the top stacks. The Islanders have been rolling and have won four out of the last five games they have played and have now gone 4-0 against the Flyers on the season. The second line for the Islanders really shone brightly during game 1 as they posted a 58 corsi and generated eight scoring chances. The top line for New York struggled from a corsi standpoint but led the team with three high-danger opportunities so they still stand to be a viable stack in tournaments.
The Lightning and Bruins are playing on the end of a back-to-back which means we could see some tired legs between both teams. They have the series split 1-1 with Boston now gaining the home-ice advantage for the next two games. Their top line really played well in their two regular-season matchups when Boston was considered the home team as they generated nine scoring chances in those two games and generated a combined 60+ corsi in those two matchups. On the other side, the top line for Tampa Bay has had an extremely strong puck possession presence the first two games of this series as they have generated a 75+ corsi in both games and 17 scoring chances combined.
The nightcap for this slate features a Stars team that has been rolling against Colorado all season long. They have a 2-0 lead in the series and are averaging five goals per game since their series began. The Avalanche has been getting strong production out of their top line but Dallas has been able to limit the rest of the lines for Colorado which is hindering the upside that Colorado brings from an offensive standpoint. The second Dallas line has done the best job so far from a puck possession standpoint in both games and looks to be one of the better value lines on the entire slate.
Top Stacks:
- COL1 Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen
- BOS1- Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak
- TB1- Palat, Point, Kucherov
- NYI1- Lee, Barzal, Eberle
- NYI2- Beauvillier, Nelson, Bailey
Value Stacks:
- NYI3- Johnston, JPG, Komarov
- DAL2- Janmark, Pavelski, Gurianov
- COL2- Burakovsky, Kadri, Donskoi
- BOS 2- DeBrusk, Krejci, Kase
