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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, January 18th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/18
- Winnipeg Jets vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-155) - 6.5O
- Buffalo Sabres vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-160)- 6U
- San Jose Sharks vs. St. Louis Blues (-180) - 6U
- Carolina Hurricanes (-125) vs. Nashville Predators- 5.5U
- Minnesota Wild (-130) vs. Anaheim Ducks - 5.5U
- Vancouver Canucks vs. Calgary Flames (-135) - 6U
- Montreal Canadiens (-115) vs. Edmonton Oilers (-105) - 6.5U
- Arizona Coyotes vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-185) - 6U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Winnipeg | 10 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 13 |
| Toronto | 26 | 13 | 29 | 6 | 17.75 |
| Buffalo | 22 | 18 | 11 | 30 | 20.25 |
| Philadelphia | 7 | 31 | 25 | 16 | 19.75 |
| San Jose | 27 | 22 | 4 | 26 | 21.75 |
| St. Louis | 5 | 28 | 17 | 21 | 15.75 |
| Carolina | 11 | 29 | 21 | 3 | 15.25 |
| Nashville | 19 | 15 | 16 | 5 | 14.5 |
| Minnesota | 23 | 21 | 20 | 25 | 18.5 |
| Anaheim | 25 | 11 | 3 | 27 | 20.25 |
| Vancouver | 19 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 12.5 |
| Calgary | 16 | 8 | 12 | 15 | 16.5 |
| Montreal | 19 | 18 | 13 | 2 | 20.5 |
| Edmonton | 15 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 10.5 |
| Arizona | 3 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 7.75 |
| Vegas | 13 | 29 | 19 | 1 | 16.25 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Winnipeg | 15 | 21 |
| Toronto | 6 | 22 |
| Buffalo | 8 | 30 |
| Philadelphia | 14 | 1 |
| San Jose | 23 | 18 |
| St. Louis | 3 | 12 |
| Carolina | 8 | 27 |
| Nashville | 24 | 4 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 24 |
| Anaheim | 31 | 25 |
| Vancouver | 4 | 8 |
| Calgary | 12 | 16 |
| Montreal | 22 | 2 |
| Edmonton | 1 | 19 |
| Arizona | 18 | 26 |
| Vegas | 9 | 5 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.
NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Auston Matthews ($ 8,300 DK/ $ 8,500 FD) - Matthews carries one of the higher upsides on the slate and is starting to heat up. He is averaging over five shots per game which is great over on DK and is on a point per game pace to start the season. The Jets tend to play with pace and their top line has been known to be a bad defensive line as they had an xGA/60 of 3.04 last season so Matthews should see plenty of chances.
- Sean Monahan ($ 5,600 DK/ $ 6,900 FD) - The Flames have shuffled up their lines a bit and have put the Monny-Johnny connection on the second line which bodes well for them from a matchup standpoint. When they last played against Vancouver, Monahan scored one goal on two shots. He has registered points in back to back games and this new second line for the Flames looks to be one of the more dangerous second-line groups in the league.
- Nolan Patrick ($ 3,700 DK/ $ 4,300 FD) - Sean Couturier looks to be out a few weeks which means both Kevin Hayes and Nolan Patrick should get bumps in ice-time while Patrick could get shifted to a top-six role. Patrick has had a solid start to the season as he has registered a point in each game so far and his upside only increases as he should hold more responsibilities over the next several weeks.
Other centers to consider: McDavid, Draisaitl, Tavares, Suzuki, Hayes, Stephenson, Danault, Schenn
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Max Pacioretty ($ 7,500 DK/ $ 7,800 FD) - Pacioretty is about as solid as it gets right now at the wing position and gets a solid matchup against the Coyotes. The Golden Knights winger has taken five shots in each game so far this year and has also scored a goal in both games played this season. With his shot volume and role on the offensive end, he should always be considered in any format.
- Brendan Gallagher($ 5,600 DK/ $ 7,200 FD) - The pricing between the two sites is drastic on Gallagher which makes him really stand out over on DK. Gallagher is taking three shots per game and while he is coming off of a two-point outing against Edmonton, he still has yet to notch his first goal of the season.
- Oskar Lindblom ($ 4,000 DK/ $ 3,800 FD) - Lindblom is priced down on both sites and has been off to a great start to the 20201 season. The Flyers have been clicking offensively and Lindblom has registered a goal in the first two games played while also taking two shots and averaging two blocks per game as well.
Other wings to consider: RNH, Connor, Tkachuk, Fiala, Marchessault, Wheeler, Kaprizov, Hoffman, Leonard
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Alex Pietrangelo ($6,700 DK/ $ 6,400 FD) - The price on Pietrangelo is still too good to pass up as he should be hitting the 7k mark here really soon. Pietrangelo racks up peripherals which makes him an ideal defenseman for cash games over on DK as he is averaging two shots per game and four blocked shots per game.
- Jeff Petry ($5,600 DK/ $ 5,300 FD) - When someone is on a hot streak, you play them and that person right now is Jeff Petry. Petry has had back-to-back two-point efforts in his first two games of the season and is seeing plenty of ice-time as he skates on the second line defensive pairing as well as the top power-play line.
- Rasmus Andersson ($ 4,600 DK/ $ 4,900 FD) - Andersson has been a pleasant surprise for the Flames as he has gotten a point in his first two games of the season. He is still priced down which is a plus since he is seeing top-line minutes and top power-play minutes as well. Andersson does a little bit of everything from taking shots to blocking shots so he is could be a viable candidate in all formats.
Other defensemen to consider: Ellis, Rielly, Hughes, Dumba, Romanov, Larsson, Ekholm
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Carter Hart ($ 8,400 DK/ $ 8,300 FD) - Hart has gotten off to a strong start to the 2020 season as he has won both games against Pittsburgh and both in convincing fashion. Hart saw 33+ shots in both games and has a .925 save percentage on the season. The Sabres offense is averaging 2.5 goals per game and outside of their top line, they don't really pose much of a scoring threat to this Flyers team.
- Robin Lehner ($ 8,500DK/ $ 8,600 FD) - The Golden Knights are another heavy favorite on the slate which puts their goaltender into consideration in all formats. Fleury started for the Knights on Saturday night which means Lehner should most likely get the nod in the opening game against Arizona. Lehner is 1-0 with a 2.00 goals allowed average and a .909 save percentage on the season and gets a Coyotes team that takes a solid amount of shots but struggles to convert opportunities into actual goals.
- Cam Talbot ($ 8,000 DK/ $ 7,600 FD) - Talbot has won both of his starts this season and while he is allowing three goals per game, he is seeing enough of a shot volume to make up for a few goals allowed. He has seen 33+ shots in his first two games and has produced over 15 DK points in both games and gets a great matchup against a Ducks team that is scoring 1.5 goals per game.
Other goalies to consider: Binnington
Note: If you do roster a goalie from my list above in cash games, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- VGK 1
- Pacioretty, Stephenson, Stone (Pietrangelo, D-men add on)
- I know I have mentioned this line several times but they are just always in play and priced well enough to use regardless of the opponent. The top Vegas line is scoring at a 4.58 goals per 60-minute rate and is generating over 13 high danger opportunities per 60 minutes of ice time. Vegas matches their line and they draw a good matchup against Zona 1 as that line is allowing 36.91 scoring chances per 60, 16.78h high danger chances per 60, and have an xGA/ 60 of 2.81.
- Pacioretty, Stephenson, Stone (Pietrangelo, D-men add on)
- TOR 1
- Thornton/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, D-men add on)
- The Maple Leafs top line had a little bit of a coming-out party against the Senators as they produced three goals and seven total points between their three forwards on the top line. Matthews and Marner looked like their normal selves and Joe Thornton did what he does best and that is to facilitate passes and finds the open man. The matchup against the Jets could be a good one as they should line match against the top Jets line which has been a historically bad defensive line in the past.
- Thornton/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, D-men add on)
- MON 2
- Drouin/ Suzuki/ Anderson (Petry, D-men add on)
- The Montreal Canadiens have been producing goals to start the season and get another game against the Edmonton Oilers on this slate. The Oilers defense has been non-existent to start the season as they are allowing four goals per game which means the Canadiens should be able to produce opportunities and points. The second line for the Canadiens was able to generate five scoring chances against Edmonton Saturday night and while they weren't able to bag a few goals, the scoring opportunties were there for them.
- Drouin/ Suzuki/ Anderson (Petry, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: CGY1/2, STL 1, MIN 1, PHI 2
SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks
- C: McDavid (1X), Matthews (1.05X), Mark Scheifele (1.40X), Hayes (1.55X), Monahan (1.7X), Stephenson (1.95X)
- W: Pacioretty (1.3X), Svechnikov (1.35X), Stone (1.4X), Lindholm (1.55X), Marner (1.65X), Gallagher (1.65X)
- D: Theodore (1.25X), Pietrangelo (1.25X), Josi (1.3X), Giordano (1.35X), Petry (1.45X), Weber (1.6X), Rielly (1.75X)
- G: Talbot (1.2X), Hart (1.25X), Markstrom (1.3X)
- *Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded
Key Abbreviations:
- xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
- GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
- SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
