X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

NL Starting Pitching Sleepers for 2020

The shorter 2020 MLB regular season has led to a few shifts in fantasy strategy, but perhaps nowhere is that more evident than in the starting pitching landscape. We're used to constructing fantasy rotations around strikeout pitchers and ratio arms or high-upside flyers and solid innings-eaters. However, with a shorter season, there will likely be no major innings eaters. The guys who we were counting on for only 120 innings now might be no different from the guys that usually throw 200 innings.

I discussed the way in which this impacts your fantasy rotation construction when I took a look at the AL starting pitching sleepers. However, we also have some volatile oft-injured arms or unproven young guns listed below who are the perfect type of risks to take in a shorter season. Much like the arms on the AL list, I believe these pitchers won't crush you with bad starts because I either don't believe they'll happen or because you're investing so little draft capital that you can simply cut the pitcher after one or two outings if you don't like what the performances suggest.

(ADP numbers are from March 1st to March 31st using Online Championship data on NFBC. My rankings are for standard 5x5 formats)

Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!

 

Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 165)

Martinez returned from a shoulder injury in 2019 and spent the entire year in the bullpen, finishing as the team's closer after Jordan Hicks tore his UCL in late June. Martinez was effective in the role, locking down 24 saves and four wins while compiling a 3.17 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 17.5% K-BB% in 48.1 IP.

However, now that he's a full year removed from injury, the veteran will begin 2020 back in the rotation. Due to injuries, Martinez hasn't been a full-time starter since 2017, when he went 12-11 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while notching 217 strikeouts in 205 innings. The right-hander has always been a good source of strikeouts, with a career 23.4 K% and above-average movement on most of his offerings.

However, injuries have made Martinez a risky option. That risk is not as pronounced now that the season will be shorter for everybody, and Martinez's likely inability to reach 180+ innings can't be held against him.

When on the mound, Martinez has shown flashes of dominance. He has infuriating control issues, but his Whiff% and Chase% are slightly above league average, and his 10.6% career SwStr% is solid.

One interesting development from last year is that Martinez essentially scrapped his cutter, which had a negative pVAL, and increased the use of his changeup, which had a 3.6 pVAL and registered a .111 BAA and a 37.9 Whiff%. If Martinez is able to pair that changeup with his slider, which had an 8 pVAL and 40.8 Whiff%, he could survive his inconsistent fastball.

With Martinez as a starter, it seems fair to pencil him in for an ERA around 3.50, a WHIP near 1.25 and a 9.0 K/9. That sounds like close to Madison Bumgarner or Eduardo Rodriguez territory, yet Martinez has an ADP of 165, while Bumgarner is going 122 and Rodriguez is going 132. With Martinez locked into the starting job, I'd rather wait 30+ picks and take the chance on his upside.

 

Mitch Keller ,Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: 219)

While Keller has been a popular sleeper pick for much of the offseason, there are many projection systems and fantasy host sites that are still running for the hills. It's not hard to blame them. Keller was not great in his MLB audition for the Pirates last year, pitching to a 7.13 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and a .348 BAA. Not all of that was a fluke, as the right-hander features a fastball that induced only a 17.6 Whiff%, a .324 xBA, and .476 xSLG.

Advertising

However, you shouldn't follow those who have turned their back on the Pirates' top prospect.

For one, many of Keller's underlying metrics suggest that he was actually pitching much closer to his 3.47 xFIP. His BABIP was .478, which is certainly not sustainable, particularly since Keller did a strong job of limiting hard contact. Keller allowed 49% medium contact, which is, in part, demonstrated by the exit velocities pictured left, where Keller's struggles came when he misses in and over the plate, as most pitchers would.

The ability to command the zone more consistently seems to be feasible for Keller, who scored a 102 on Eno Sarris' Command+ metric. That ties him with Gerrit Cole, Mike Soroka, and Matthew Boyd, among others. All three, despite having the same Command+ score, had a better BB% with Cole and Soroka finishing at 5.9% and Boyd at 6.3% compared to Keller's 7%. Getting more comfortable at the MLB level could lead to improvements in command for Keller, which is good news for his already strong 21.6% K-BB% and 11.8% SwStr%.

The strikeout metrics are thanks in large part to two plus secondary offerings: a slider that had a 47.8 Whiff% and a 29.5 PutAway%, and a curve that had a 34 Whiff% and a 25.5 PutAway%. If he can limit damage on his fastball, which also had an outrageously high BAA, and use it to set up his plus offspeed, Keller should continue to be a strong source of strikeouts.

All of which indicates that he should be able to finish with an ERA around 3.80, WHIP around 1.27, and just under 10 K/9. He won't get a lot of wins on the Pirates, but that stat line equates to a rbEDV around 200.

 

Garrett Richards, San Diego Padres (ADP: 243)

Richards is another perfect example of a pitcher whose value goes up in a shorter season. The veteran right-hander has a lengthy injury history. However, his ADP has begun to rise as the shorter season became apparent, but I still think it hasn't risen far enough.

Yes, Richards hasn't pitched more than 100 innings since 2015 but he's tantalized with upside in his brief periods of health. He had an average SwStr% of 11.7 from 2016-18 and a 25 K% during the same span. In fact, since the end of 2105, Richards has been well above league average in terms of K% and had spikes in 2018 that hinted a dominance.

Part of that spike in 2018 was a change in his pitch mix (right). After a few years of slightly increasing the use of his fastball, Richards made a conscious decision to cut down on both his fastball and sinker usage in favor of his slider and his curve. That was  good news since his best pitch has always been his slider.

Advertising

In 2018, when he threw the slider more than any other in his repertoire, it registered a .153 xBA, .311 xSLG, 45.0 Whiff%, and 33.1 PutAway%. He only threw the pitch 46 times in his three starts last year since he was just beginning to get comfortable after coming back from injury, but the pitch still registered a .190 xBA and 57.1 Whiff%. If he goes back to throwing that as his main pitch and continues to up the usage on his curve (.161 xBA, .129 SLG, and 30.4 Whiff% in 2018), then Richards could be a major asset for strikeouts.

The Padres signed Richards to a two-year deal and only got three starts from him in 2019. There's a very good chance that in a short season and the final year of his contract they simply see how much they can get out of him. Richards' risk was never talent-based but volume-based, so that risk is limited now. Also, if he were to get hurt again, you could always pick up a streaming starter and continue to accrue stats at the position you had pegged for Richards on your roster.

With a pick this late in the draft, even if you get just 100 innings of above-average K-rate and a high-three ERA, you're getting more than enough value.

 

Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP: 268)

Julio Urias is getting a lot of hype as we move into a shorter fantasy season, but that's caused his ADP to rocket up inside the top 130. I can no longer qualify that as a sleeper, but that added attention has actually taken attention away from the Dodgers' announcement that Wood is penciled into the rotation and will get the benefit of last year's 15th-ranked defense according to OAA.

Wood only pitched 35.2 innings last year after recovering from an injury, so there's not a whole lot to take away. However, he had a 3.68 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on a much similar Dodgers team in 2018. That year he had a 21.2 K% and 6.3 BB%, which is indicative of his plus control and ability to limit free passes.

In fact, prior to his injury-impacted performance in 2019, Wood had a career sub-1.22 WHIP and has been great at limiting hard contact (left).

With three pitches that he uses to keep hitters guessing, Wood has shown consistent success in preventing solid contact and high batting averages. His curve has also demonstrated to be a solid out pitch (Whiff% and PutAway% are the two right-most columns below), helping him towards modest strikeout totals.

What results is a pitcher with a solid floor, who won't have many blow-up outings or hurt you with ratios. The knocks on Wood were always that the Dodgers messed around with the innings of their starting pitchers and he didn't accrue a lot of strikeouts. The shorter season will limit the discrepancy in strikeouts, and it's hard to see the Dodgers manipulating their pitching staff when they don't have the monitor innings totals.

Advertising

Wood will likely get at least 100-120 innings and provide you with good ratios and a strong chance of wins on a championship contender. If you can secure your high-strikeout arms early on, Wood makes for a great overlooked option to round out the rotation.

 

Cole Hamels, Atlanta Braves (ADP: 329)

Hamels is a pitcher that was all but forgotten about in February. After suffering a shoulder injury, it was clear that the new Brave was not going to start the year on the active roster. As a result, the veteran's draft price plummeted. Now, Hamels will likely be able to pitch a full season; yet, his ADP hasn't really corrected.

Some of that may have to do with a profile that isn't exciting. Yes, Hamels had a solid 2019 season, with a 3.81 ERA over 27 starts; however, his pitch mix was less alluring. He increased the usage of his fastball last year despite it giving up a .289 xBA and dropping in max velocity by nearly two MPH.

He pairs his fastball with a dynamic changeup that recorded a .207 xBA, 43.8 Whiff%, and 28.8 PutAway%. Since he throws those pitches a combined 56.8% of the time, any more decrease in his fastball velocity could jeopardize the effectiveness of his changeup.

So why am I pitching Hamels as a sleeper? The answer is simply value.

If you can get value on all, or almost all, of your draft picks, your team will likely be in good shape. Going outside of the top 300, Hamels presents tremendous value. He has a career K% of 23%, has had an ERA over 4.00 only twice in his 14-year career, and pitches for a strong team that is likely to put him in line for a good number of wins.

Hamels will not win you a draft, but he should be able to get you double-digit wins (depending on the length of the season) with a K/9 around nine, and an ERA just under 4.00. That's a solid way to spend a late-round pick if you've added enough upset to your rotation early in the draft.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

WIN MORE IN 2024

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Alexis Diaz fantasy baseball closers rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. In addition to closers and saves, relief... Read More


Do These Prospects Matter for Fantasy Baseball?

The 2023 fantasy baseball season has been highlighted by the promotion of nearly two-dozen top prospects to the major leagues to impact fantasy rosters. This week's edition features one player who was called up as the piece was being written. Will these strong performers join the ranks of those who have moved to the majors... Read More


clayton kershaw fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

articles report test

this is a test


Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome back! It's Week 24 of our fantasy baseball Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups series! There are just two precious weeks left, and every start is becoming more and more important as most of the fantasy baseball world is in playoff matchups. If you've made it this far, there's a good chance you don't really... Read More


Aaron Nola - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Starts & Sits for MLB Week 23 - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball

Welcome back RotoBallers! Big week in fantasy leagues as we approach the end of the season and playoffs! As always, we are here with our starting pitcher starts and sits series to help you set those winning lineups for the week ahead! For those who are not familiar, RotoBaller puts out a weekly grid of... Read More


Gunnar Henderson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Points League Hitters: Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome to Week 24 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire hitters. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax. Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform,... Read More


Brayan Bello - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Two-Start Pitcher Streamers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Yo, it's Jon Anderson, continuing to run the show here in terms of late-summer fantasy baseball writing. There are just two weeks left of streaming pitchers, so let's make it count! This weekly fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column aims to identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week,... Read More


Fantasy Baseball Week 24 Injury News and Updates: Tyler Glasnow, Ozzie Albies, Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, Zack Wheeler

September is now more than half over. The baseball season is slowly coming to a close. At this point, fantasy players are pushing for their league titles or just playing for pride. Major League Baseball teams continue to do the same and injuries continue to happen, now with the dreaded term "done for the season"... Read More


Joe Musgrove - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/17/22)

Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/17/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Today's MLB slates are split up as is the norm for September baseball. Half the guys I think will play will not, so you have to be as flexible as Gumby to play MLB DFS in September, but that also means that there is a lot of money out there should you dare to dive... Read More


Max Fried - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/15/22)

Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


Robbie Ray - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Draft Sleepers

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/16/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Fridays are big MLB DFS days and offer a nice respite from the NFL, who command our attention on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays. This slate, like most Friday slates, is a big one as all MLB teams are in action today and 28 of those teams are on tonight's 14-game DFS slate. This was a... Read More


kyle farmer fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Top Hitter Streamers and Starts for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

There are only two weeks left of fantasy baseball! It's going to be very sad when the season comes to an end, but the impending end of the season means that these are the most important, and therefore most fun weeks of the year – for those of you still competing, at least. I have... Read More


TODAY’S MOST VIEWED PLAYERS

rotating JS ad test

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
derrick henry fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

test publish 5 mins in future

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


PrizePicks NFL DFS Picks - Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Updates for Aaron Rodgers

Warning: Undefined array key "amp_post_template_footer" in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6 Warning: foreach() argument must be of type array|object, null given in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6 Featured Promo: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off and win big in 2022. Exclusive access to our Premium articles, 15 lineup... Read More


derrick henry fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

PrizePicks NFL DFS Picks - Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monkey Knife Fight - Monday Night Football

Welcome to NFL Monday Night Football, where we have two games scheduled between the Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills.  Monday's games mean our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play once again! The good people at Monkey Knife Fight offer some... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Week 2 Updates for Najee Harris, J.K. Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram

Below you will find our fantasy football injuries report for running backs in Week 2, as of September 17. The injury statuses for various NFL running backs are up in the air for Week 2 including D'Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, and more. The fantasy football season may be just getting underway,... Read More


michael pittman jr. fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL WRs: Week 2 Updates for Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Allen Lazard, Julio Jones

Welcome to Week 2 of the fantasy football season and the Saturday edition of our WR injury reports! Below you will find our fantasy football injuries report for wide receivers in Week 2 as of September 16th. The injury statuses for various NFL wide receivers are up in the air for Week 2, including Michael... Read More


justin herbert fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports for QBs: Week 2 Updates for Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, Mac Jones

Below you will find our updated fantasy football injuries report for quarterbacks in the days before Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season as of Friday, September 16. There are a few NFL QBs dealing with injuries, including Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, and Mac Jones. Being up-to-date on NFL injury news can give... Read More


Trey Lance - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Week 2

Every week, I share some of my favored choices and players to go with when dealing with challenging lineup decisions. These selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a discount and get access to my ranks in all formats, plus... Read More


Saquon Barkley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, Draft Sleepers

Week 2 NFL Pick Em Selections for No House Advantage

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is underway and that means our friends over at No House Advantage have a TON of great DFS plays we can look to take advantage of. No House Advantage is a unique DFS prop picks site where you do not have to play against the house to... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 2: Greg Dortch, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk

Week 1 made some things come to light as we got some clarity on some murky situations. Unfortunately, many of our WR targets for DFS last week were victims of this. Robert Woods finished the game with one reception for 13 yards, as the Titans used the rookie receivers much more than him. Brandon Aiyuk... Read More


Carson Wentz - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 2: Top NFL Player Props Bets

Football season is back! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks... Read More


Fantasy Football IDP Injury Reports For NFL Defensive Players: Week 2 Updates for T.J. Watt, Jamal Adams, Jalen Thompson, Ed Oliver

T.J. Watt owners, you know the feeling... I had T.J. Watt in my home league last season. He was constantly checking out of games early with nagging minor injuries, but he must have led every IDP manager who started him to the playoffs. I went back to the well and drafted him early this year.... Read More