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With the ease at which information is transmitted in this modern day and age, players that otherwise would have had a low ADP and tantalizing upside are being forced up draft boards by consensus within the community that they are undervalued. However, if the masses recognize that some players are at an ADP that is below their projected value, oftentimes an overcorrection will ensue on draft boards, skyrocketing the draft day cost of the aforementioned player and making them no longer worth the selection.
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Vance McDonald has been a popular sleeper candidate this season due to his perceived role in the Steelers offense. However, his current ADP is too high considering the level that he has performed at in recent seasons.
Below are some reasons why Vance McDonald's sleeper status is becoming a little too much in 2018.
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Pros for Vance McDonald
After being drafted by the San Francisco 49ers in 2013, there were very high expectations placed on McDonald's shoulders. However, for his first two seasons, McDonald largely disappointed, as injuries held him back from producing to his full ability. McDonald was only able to produce 149 yards in his first two years and only played eight games in his second professional season. However, his yards per catch were very impressive, with 14.9 yards per catch across the two seasons. McDonald had a mini-breakout in 2015, securing 30 receptions across 14 games for 326 yards and three touchdowns. 2016 saw an even better performance for McDonald, with four touchdowns and 391 yards on only 24 receptions in 11 games. Clearly, although the numbers were rather underwhelming, McDonald continued to show his potential with high yards per reception numbers and decent stats in the games that he was actually able to suit up for and play. 2017 saw McDonald get traded to the Steelers - although he flashed at moments, his overall ability was not showcased in an otherwise explosive offense. Only playing in ten games, McDonald was able to record 14 receptions for 188 yards and a touchdown on the year.
Entering 2018, McDonald has shown that he has the ability to compete at the top level and will hope to showcase that in his second season with the Steelers. However, does the veteran tight end have what it takes to truly compete and become one of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's top targets for the year? Let's see why that may not be the case.
Why Drafting Him Is Not Smart
Although Vance McDonald has demonstrated his competence at playing in the NFL, he should not be considered even as a late round lottery pick. First, let's discuss the competition that McDonald will have for targets in the Steelers offense. Playing in front of veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, Wilson will share receiving duties with players such as future Hall-of-Famer Antonio Brown, ascending talent Juju Smith-Schuster, and skilled rookie James Washington as well as running back Le'Veon Bell.
It is clear that the Steelers have a wealth of riches at the skill positions this year. Brown and Bell will each be targeted heavily every match, while Juju Smith-Schuster is also expected to get his after nearly having 1,000 receiving yards while playing alongside Brown, Bell, and Martavis Bryant. Additionally, James Washington has flashed moments of brilliance in the preseason and will also command a significant share of targets. This will likely leave McDonald as the fifth option on the team in terms of targets, making it difficult to predict reliable numbers for him every week.
Additionally, McDonald has never played a full season since entering the NFL. After just playing ten games last season and only playing more than 11 games in a year twice so far in his career, the fact that McDonald has not crossed the 400 yard and four touchdown barrier as a tight end is a clear red flag that he most likely doesn't have what it takes to be a weekly option at the position, clouding any chance of his sleeper status entering 2018.
When all is said and done, Vance McDonald is not a bad football player. However, the fact that he will likely be the fifth option in the passing game for the Steelers, as well as his lengthy injury history, is more than enough to stay away from him, even in the later rounds of drafts. Unless you believe in McDonald enough to spend a draft pick on him, stay away from the tight end this season and focus on the other options in the Steelers offense.
