X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pablo Lopez, Miami's Other Breakout Starter

Miami Marlins right-hander Pablo Lopez quietly dominated the Braves on Sunday, tossing six scoreless innings with one walk and six strikeouts. That was his second scoreless outing in his last three appearances, and it lowered his season ERA to 4.03 - along with a 1.08 WHIP and a 25% strikeout rate.

Lopez's 4.03 ERA, even after two recent quality starts, doesn't provide a ton of confidence for the casual fantasy owner who is scouring the waiver wire. But a quick check under the hood shows that Lopez has a spectacular 2.80 FIP, along with a 3.64 SIERA.

So, the big question: is he a 4.03 pitcher, a 3.64 pitcher or a 2.80 pitcher? After all, Lopez looked pretty bad to begin the season, and his 4.14 ERA and 18.6% strikeout rate in 10 starts last season doesn't exactly scream "future fantasy stud." Let's take a look under the hood to see if a breakout is in play.

Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!

 

History

As much crap as the Marlins have taken for trading away future stud pitchers (like Luis Castillo, Chris Paddack and Domingo German) they also did a good job of acquiring some as well. Lopez was plucked from the Mariners along with three other prospects for reliever David Phelps, a trade that is certainly paying dividends for Miami.

Lopez's minor league numbers are helpful when evaluating his control, which has always been excellent. In fact, Lopez never had a walk rate over 5% while in the minors, which certainly indicates that his 1.08 WHIP and 5.8% walk rate this season are legit.

While the minor league numbers help justify the control, they are all over the place when it comes to the strikeouts.

Lopez twice had a K rate over 20%, but was below 18% four times, and has generally flip-flopped between above-average/good strikeout numbers to considerably below average. That rang true in the big leagues as well, as he had a 18.6% strikeout rate in his first 10 starts during the 2018 season, and a 25% rate in his seven 2019 starts.

So the big question is if his strikeout stuff will stick in the major leagues. For that, let's take a look at his pitch mix.

 

Pitch Mix

Lopez has done most of his damage this season with his devastating changeup, which is generating a 50% o-swing rate, a 49.1% zone rate and an incredible 23.6% swinging strike rate, easily making it one of the best pitches in the big leagues.

He's gotten solid results from his curveball as well, with an 11.3% swinging strike rate and a .459 OPS by opposing hitters.

Advertising

The problem? His fastball. Lopez throws both a four-seam fastball and a sinker, and each sits around 93 miles per hour. His fastball boasts one of the worst spin rates in the entire league, and his sinker is getting teed off on by opposing hitters, who are slashing .308/.400/.423 on the pitch.

However, even though Lopez's fastball doesn't move all that much, it has still managed a not-so-bad 9.5% swinging strike rate, and the .263 opponents average is buoyed by a .366 BABIP, which should come down.

That leads us to our next category...

 

Statcast Metrics

Lopez may have an inflated ERA, but there's a reason his FIP and SIERA are so good. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate both indicate that he has been among the top 30% in the league at preventing hard contact, and his XWOBA of .274 certainly paints a prettier picture for the young right-hander than his 4.03 ERA would suggest.

Of course, preventing hard contact is not everything when it comes to successful starting pitching, but being able to do that while also not walking people is definitely a recipe for success, especially when his secondaries are generating a ton of whiffs.

 

Verdict/Words of Warning

There are a few notable red flags in Lopez's fantasy profile for you to take note of before you blow your FAAB on him. For starters, he has a wicked low 6.3% HR/FB rate this season - which is very likely to experience some negative regression. xFIP, which accounts for a stable HR/FB rate, still pegs him as a 3.68 ERA guy, so it's not all bad. But something to be aware of.

Secondly, and this will become a factor later in the season, Lopez is probably going to be on an innings limit this year. His career high is 145.1 innings back in 2017, and he only threw 121 innings last season. I expect he'll be capped around 160 innings or so, which could cost him a few starts down the stretch if he keeps going deep into games.

Overall, Lopez is not as bad as his 4.03 ERA indicates, but he's probably more of a 3.64 pitcher than a 2.80 one. Still, a 3.64 ERA with a WHIP under 1.10 and a strikeout rate around 25% is absolutely worth owning in 12-team formats, especially this year, and is worth consideration as a streamer in 10-teamers as well.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




Advertising

LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

WIN MORE IN 2024

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Alexis Diaz fantasy baseball closers rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. In addition to closers and saves, relief... Read More


Do These Prospects Matter for Fantasy Baseball?

The 2023 fantasy baseball season has been highlighted by the promotion of nearly two-dozen top prospects to the major leagues to impact fantasy rosters. This week's edition features one player who was called up as the piece was being written. Will these strong performers join the ranks of those who have moved to the majors... Read More


clayton kershaw fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

articles report test

this is a test


Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome back! It's Week 24 of our fantasy baseball Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups series! There are just two precious weeks left, and every start is becoming more and more important as most of the fantasy baseball world is in playoff matchups. If you've made it this far, there's a good chance you don't really... Read More


Aaron Nola - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Starts & Sits for MLB Week 23 - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball

Welcome back RotoBallers! Big week in fantasy leagues as we approach the end of the season and playoffs! As always, we are here with our starting pitcher starts and sits series to help you set those winning lineups for the week ahead! For those who are not familiar, RotoBaller puts out a weekly grid of... Read More


Gunnar Henderson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Points League Hitters: Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome to Week 24 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire hitters. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax. Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform,... Read More


Brayan Bello - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Two-Start Pitcher Streamers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Yo, it's Jon Anderson, continuing to run the show here in terms of late-summer fantasy baseball writing. There are just two weeks left of streaming pitchers, so let's make it count! This weekly fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column aims to identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week,... Read More


Fantasy Baseball Week 24 Injury News and Updates: Tyler Glasnow, Ozzie Albies, Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, Zack Wheeler

September is now more than half over. The baseball season is slowly coming to a close. At this point, fantasy players are pushing for their league titles or just playing for pride. Major League Baseball teams continue to do the same and injuries continue to happen, now with the dreaded term "done for the season"... Read More


Joe Musgrove - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/17/22)

Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/17/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Today's MLB slates are split up as is the norm for September baseball. Half the guys I think will play will not, so you have to be as flexible as Gumby to play MLB DFS in September, but that also means that there is a lot of money out there should you dare to dive... Read More


Max Fried - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/15/22)

Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


Robbie Ray - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Draft Sleepers

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/16/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Fridays are big MLB DFS days and offer a nice respite from the NFL, who command our attention on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays. This slate, like most Friday slates, is a big one as all MLB teams are in action today and 28 of those teams are on tonight's 14-game DFS slate. This was a... Read More


kyle farmer fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Top Hitter Streamers and Starts for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

There are only two weeks left of fantasy baseball! It's going to be very sad when the season comes to an end, but the impending end of the season means that these are the most important, and therefore most fun weeks of the year – for those of you still competing, at least. I have... Read More


TODAY’S MOST VIEWED PLAYERS

rotating JS ad test

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF