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Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I have selected an advanced stat, chosen two top performers and two under-performers, and analyzed what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. This week I will focus on another broader stat that can has a direct influence on a pitcher's fantasy value: strikeout rate.
Strikeout rate is a straightforward metric: it measures the percent of hitters faced that a pitcher strikes out. Strikeouts as a counting stat is a big plus for a pitcher's fantasy value in both roto and points leagues, so having a pitcher who strikes out a larger portion of the hitters they face is something to look for in pitchers to roster and start. Of course, there are plenty of pitchers who provide high fantasy value without striking out a lot of hitters, but that strikeout edge can push any start from good to great in terms of fantasy value.
At this point in the season, fantasy managers are looking for all the help they can get in the push to the fantasy playoffs. The difference between starting or streaming a low-strikeout verse a high-strikeout pitcher can make a huge difference at this point in the season, so let's dive in! As I have done throughout this series, I will not focus on obvious fantasy studs for this article.
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Strikeout Rate Studs
All stats current as of Sunday, August 29, 2021.
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
(11-6, 3.82 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 30.2% Strikeout Rate)
This first pitcher has been known in fantasy baseball for a few seasons now, but this is his first solid one. Dylan Cease has played a big role in landing the White Sox in first place in the American League Central, going 11-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He has also played a big role on fantasy managers' teams, posting a 30.2% strikeout rate that is fifth-highest among qualified pitchers. Let's take a look into how he has maintained his punch-out stuff throughout the season.
Cease has relied mainly on three pitches; a fastball (46.5% usage), a slider (30% usage), and a curveball (15.1% usage). The main theme across his main pitches is pitch movement. Despite relying so heavily on his fastball, Cease has been able to generate a 10.6% swinging-strike rate thanks to its average velocity of 96.5 MPH (90th percentile of baseball) and a spin rate of 2,541 rotations per minute (96th percentile of baseball). His best swing-and-miss pitch has been his slider; the pitch has above-average spin in both planes and has generated a 19.1% swinging-strike rate. Finally, he has relied a bit more on his curveball, which has been a solid pitch. I analyzed it in Week 10, stating that its vertical movement and improved location could make it a useful swing-and-miss pitch. Since then, Cease has thrown the pitch more towards the bottom of the strike zone and has upped its swinging-strike rate to 14.7%.
All in all, Cease has a solid pitch arsenal and has utilized it well. He relies primarily on an overpowering fastball and complements that with two solid breaking pitches. As such, he has gotten a high percentage of hitters out on strikeouts and has the other solid peripherals to go with it. Cease is a pitcher to lean on for the fantasy playoffs given his strong pitches and the strong offense behind him.
Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
(10-5, 3.64 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 28.2% K Rate)
This pitcher is one who fantasy managers have had hopes for since he started his big-league career. Tyler Mahle finally put things together in 2020 and has continued in 2021, compiling a 10-5 record with a 3.64 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 28.2% strikeout rate. With the Reds making a push for the playoffs, is Mahle a pitcher fantasy managers can rely on for their push to the fantasy playoffs?
Mahle's theme is missing bats in the strike zone. He has relied on a four-seam fastball (46.5% usage), a slider (30% usage), and a split-finger fastball (15.1% usage). He has lived mostly in the zone with all of his pitches. His swinging-strike rates check out on all three of his pitches at 11.3% for his fastball, 20% for his slider, and 18.4% for his splitter. The impressive thing is that he has gotten such a high swing-and-miss rate while pitching in the zone so frequently; his 23.4% in-zone swing-and-miss rate is the fifth-best among qualified pitchers.
Mahle's strikeout success cannot be denied this season, and he has done a great job of overpowering hitters in the strike zone. However, it still makes me nervous that he works in the zone so frequently. There isn't anything obvious to suggest that Mahle can't continue to pitch like this, but it gives hitters more opportunities to deal damage. One other thing to note for Mahle down the stretch is his home/road splits. He has been excellent on the road this season with a 1.84 ERA over 78 1/3 innings pitched, but he has a poor 6.00 ERA in 63 IP at home. Looking forward, Mahle will likely pitch at least half of his remaining matchups at home. The reason behind this drastic split may be unknown, but the results definitely add one more reason for me to be hesitant in trusting Mahle at this point in the season.
Strikeout Rate Duds
All stats current as of Sunday, August 29, 2021.
Cole Irvin, Oakland Athletics
(9-12, 3.68 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 15.9% K rate)
This pitcher has come out of nowhere this season as a successful starting pitcher and fantasy contributor. Cole Irvin has put together decent overall numbers, including a 3.68 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 25 starts with the A's. However, his 15.9% strikeout rate is the second-lowest among qualified pitchers. This obviously limits his fantasy upside to some degree, but can he still be relied on as a back-end rotation starter for fantasy managers throughout the playoffs?
I have mentioned before that contact pitchers can be successful, but they need the batted-ball profile to back it up. Irvin is very much a contact pitcher; his 83.2% contact rate is the second-highest among qualified pitchers. However, he simply does not have a good batted-ball profile. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom half of baseball, and his 16.6-degree launch angle is not the way to get hitters out when they are hitting the ball hard. Irvin does have the benefit of pitching his home games in pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum, but his 4.87 SIERA is a clear indicator that he has gotten lucky this season. He relies heavily on a four-seam fastball, a changeup, and a sinker, none of which are overpowering. Not only has this not helped his strikeout rate, but his expected stats are all towards the bottom of baseball.
The verdict here is clear. Irvin has a poor batted-ball profile and an uninspiring pitch arsenal, but has gotten quite lucky in his results. He does have a solid offense behind him, but I would not trust Irvin for the playoffs. His ceiling is not high enough to risk starting him, given the potential low floor.
Wade Miley, Cincinnati Reds
(11-4, 2.74 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 18.7% K rate)
Our final pitcher has had some surprise fantasy seasons towards the back half of his career, and he is currently putting together a career season at age 34. Wade Miley has been great all season with the Reds, going 11-4 with a 2.74 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and a no-hitter as well. His 18.7% strikeout rate is towards the bottom of the league, but can he continue to be a useful fantasy option down the stretch?
Whereas Irvin did not check off the boxes needed for a strong contact pitcher, Miley checks off all of them. He does allow a pretty high rate of contact at 78.4%, but he allows very soft contact. His 85.5-MPH average exit velocity and 33.3% hard-hit rate are in the 95th and 86th percentiles of baseball, respectively. He also has kept the ball on the ground with an 8.3-degree launch angle. He does have a 4.49 SIERA, but his overall profile fits the bill for finding success with his skill set.
Miley has been a huge fantasy asset for managers this season, and nothing in the underlying numbers suggests that he cannot continue to be so for the rest of the season. His only downside is that he does not strike many hitters out, but he has a solid batted-ball profile, a good offense behind him, and has averaged just over 6 IP per start. Miley is a pitcher I am going to trust for the fantasy playoffs.
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