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There are only about six weeks left in the fantasy baseball season and most teams by now should know if they have a legitimate chance to compete for a title or not. Oftentimes, if we don't have a chance at the grand prize, we tend to turn our attention to prospects and potential keepers, or, unfortunately, some choose to simply check out. However, picking up the right prospect at the end of the season can also help to push you up the standings.
In order to choose with pitchers I wanted to highlight, I went back to my old, trusty K-BB% stat, which I also covered when predicting second-half breakouts and evaluating crucial changes in July performance. As I said then: "If a pitcher has a high strikeout rate (K%), then we know he is effective because we know that strikeouts are good and a sign of deception and good 'stuff.' However, if a pitcher also has a high walk rate (BB%), then we know that the pitcher can't harness that stuff and gives up a lot of baserunners. K-BB% thus allows us to identify pitchers who can not only miss bats but also have the command to make use of their strong pitches."
To choose the names you're about to see, I set up a leaderboard of pitchers in the high minors (AA and AAA) who have thrown at least 50 innings at those levels this season and are under 26. Then I sorted that for K-BB% in order to determine which names to discuss. The hope is that I can help identify the pitchers who are most likely to have the swing-and-miss stuff to be useful for fantasy purposes and not simply be good pitchers. While many names on this list will be familiar to you as top prospects, I think we have a couple of lesser-mentioned names to dig into as well.
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Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays
If Baz was on any other team, we would likely have already seen his MLB debut. The 22-year-old has taken a massive leap forward with the Rays this season, primarily because of his improved command. The right-hander has always had easy high-90s velocity and pairs that with three average-to-plus offerings in the slider, change, and curve. The improvement he has shown this year with the change specifically has been critical to his success because it allows Baz to become a more well-rounded pitcher and pound the zone more consistently with an array of pitches he can harness more easily.
The growth he displayed this year also set him up for a tremendous opportunity to compete for Team USA in the Olympics, which will undoubtedly help him to handle the emotional side of an MLB call-up.
However, as I mentioned earlier, the massive improvement in his walk rate is what is most exciting. Baz came into this season with an 11.1% walk rate in 2018 and a 10.8% walk rate in 2019, so seeing him put up a 1.7% walk rate in 32.2 Double-A innings was staggering. That number has jumped up to 7.8% in his six Triple-A starts, but that is still a noticeable improvement from where he was at before and has led him to a 33.8% K-BB% across his 58.1 innings in the high minors this year. That's good for second-best on our leaderboard behind Reid Detmers, who has already debuted, and shows just how electrifying Baz can be when he's finding the zone. With Luis Patino struggling a bit of late, it wouldn't be surprising for the Rays to give Baz a shot to show them what he can do at the Major League level.
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
Baz's teammate on Team USA and former teammate in Tampa is also near the top of our leaderboard, finishing fifth with a 30.2% mark. The move to the Twins is also a much better one for Ryan, who doesn't have to compete with Tampa's litany of pitching prospects or mercurial management style.
In Minnesota, all that stands in his way is for one of Griffin Jax, Lewis Thorpe, or Charlie Barnes to falter enough for the Twins to decide to give Ryan a shot. Jhoan Duran could also be in the picture, but he's had an elevated walk rate at Triple-A and hasn't been able to keep his ERA down all year, so I can see the Twins just letting him finish the year in the minors. Meanwhile, Ryan, who is already 25-years-old, has suppressed meaningful contact at pretty much every level of the minors, compiling career minor league numbers of a 2.70 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Despite his 34.9% strikeout rate this season being lower than many other pitchers on the leaderboard, his elite command has led to a 4.7% walk rate and fueled his K-BB% success.
With the Twins not competing this year and Ryan having nothing left to prove in the minors, I would expect to see the right-hander at some point over the final six weeks and think he can produce solid ratios from the get-go even if he isn't as electrifying as some of the other names on this list.
Glenn Otto, Texas Rangers
Otto is another player who benefited from the trade deadline after he was moved from the Yankees to the Rangers in the Joey Gallo deal. Otto shows up sixth on the leaderboard, right under Joe Ryan, with a 30.1% K-BB% during the 2021 season. The right-hander came out of nowhere a bit this season with many people pegging him as a long-term bullpen arm; yet, across 90.2 innings, Otto has a 3.38 ERA, 3.04 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and only a .214 average allowed. Much like Baz, a lot of that jump has to do with his improved command. In 2018, Otto registered a 15.6% walk rate in rookie ball and followed that up with an 18.8% rate in 2019 in high-A. However, in 2021 that rate has plummeted down to a 6.1% walk rate on the season.
In addition to the Yankees minor league coaches addressing his control issues by working on how he pushed off the rubber, they also spent 2020 working on adding a slider. As Yankees minor league pitching coordinator Sam Briend said: "He’s always had a nasty breaking ball. A big, over-the-top curveball. It’s a banger. It hasn’t played right to righties, but it’s been awesome to lefties. So we thought the addition of a slider would really give him that swing-and-miss pitch that he’s been lacking to right-handers.” Mission accomplished.
Now that Otto is showing improved command and has added a strong third pitch to go with his curve and mid-90s fastball, he has become a completely different pitcher. At 25-years-old, I'm not sure what left he has to show in the minors and would expect the Rangers to give him some starts with the big club in September.
Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins
Cabrera is actually much lower on the list than the names above, finishing 15th with a 25% K-BB% on the season. The biggest issue for Cabrera this season has been a spike in walk rate from 6.2% in 2019 to an inflated 15.3% during his 25.1 AAA innings in 2021. However, the reason he's still on this list, and high on most prospect lists, is that the number is impacted by small sample size.
Cabrera really only had three starts at the end of July where walks were an issue for him, and he's been lights out so far in August, striking out 23 batters across 12 innings in back-to-back starts.
In addition to featuring a dominant slider and a high-90s fastball, Cabrera is another in a long line of Marlins pitchers with a plus changeup. On the season, he has a 2.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 86 strikeouts in 57.1 innings, so you can start to see the fantasy upside he could bring. As I mentioned above, his ability to harness his plus stuff has always been a bit of a question, but it's nice to see him make corrections mid-season at Triple-A. With the Marlins currently struggling and starting both Braxton Garrett and Jesus Luzardo, who might benefit from some more seasoning, it wouldn't surprise me to see Cabrera get a chance to make some MLB starts to close out the season.
Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
Despite being fourth on our leaderboard behind Detmers, Baz, and Grayson Rodriguez (who I don't expect to get called up this year), I'm mentioning Lodolo after a few other names because I'm not as confident in his potential roster spot. The Reds are playing good baseball right now and don't really have space in the rotation with Wade Miley and Vladimir Gutierrez pitching pretty well. Gutierrez is the most likely name to give up a roster spot because he's not really an exciting pitcher, but he has shown a consistent floor of late and has done nothing to warrant being removed from the rotation.
In the end, that might not be the worst thing for Lodolo, who has a 32.3% K-BB% on the season but has struggled a bit in his two starts at Triple-A with a 6.35 ERA and 20% K-BB%. I still think that the 6'6" lefty possesses solid upside with his low 90s fastball with sinking action, swing-and-miss slider, and tremendous feel for the strike zone; however, despite his higher standing on the K-BB% leaderboard, he may be behind his own teammate for a promotion.
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
If I was going to bank on the Reds calling up one of their pitching prospects late in the season, it would be Greene. The 22-year-old with 100+ mph heat on his fastball has put together a really strong season. He obviously packs a punch with the velocity, but he has also shown good command of his slider and a solid feel for all four of his pitches.
The raw stuff is superior to his teammate, so it's easy to dream on his ceiling, and Greene's stuff would certainly play up in short stints out of the bullpen, which is why I can see him getting called up earlier than Lodolo; however, Greene actually has a lower strikeout rate and K-BB% than his teammate despite the flashy gives and triple-digit heat.
While some of that has to do with Greene's higher walk rate, I also think that Lodolo has an advanced sense of pitch sequencing and feel for location, so he can limit damage and keep hitters off-balance despite a potentially weaker arsenal. I think that Lodolo might end up as the more consistent real-life pitcher, but if I had to stash one in redraft leagues for this season, my money would be on Greene in part because of the adjustments he's made. After a rough first four starts, Greene has produced a 1.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP to go along with 37 strikeouts against seven walks in 27.3 IP. Despite his lack of consistency impacting his spot on the leaderboard, that statline shows the high ceiling impact he can have in your fantasy leagues.
Aaron Ashby, Milwaukee Brewers
Aaron Ashby joined a relatively long list of intriguing prospects who disappointed in their first taste of the big leagues in 2021 (along with the next arm on this list); however, I still think he's a name we need to keep on our radars. Similar to Shane Baz, Ashby has had a bit of an issue with control in the minors, registering an 11.5% walk rate in 2019; however, unlike Baz, Ashby didn't quite sort those out this year as he has an 11.8% walk rate in his 62.1 innings at Triple-A. That's a big reason why Ashby finishes 19th on the list with a 24.3% K-BB% because that walk rate has really held down what's been a strong jump in strikeout rate, up to 36%.
While we don't have pitch-specific data for the minors, what jumped out to me about Ashby in his major league starts was how good his changeup looked despite it not grading out well in most scouting reports.
Adding that changeup to an arsenal that features a mid-90s fastball, a plus curve, and a strike-getting slider allows Ashby to attack hitters in a number of different ways. He showed a desire to do that in his latest MLB appearance, pitching some hitters backward, which enabled him to get a fair amount of early called strikes. With Freddy Peralta recently being removed from a game with an arm injury, there's a chance that Ashby gets another shot in the rotation for the Brewers, but I also think he could be valuable as a bulk reliever when the team chooses to limit the innings of its rotation workhorses in preparation for the playoffs.
Jackson Kowar, Kansas City Royals
Last but not least is another pitcher who struggled a bit in his major league debut. In fact, many people may remember Kowar's horrendous five innings (across two starts) to start his career and be scared off from the 24-year-old, but I wouldn't recommend that. Kowar finishes 23rd on our leaderboard with a 23.2% K-BB%, which is mostly impacted by, stop me if you've heard this before, an inflated walk rate. As Kowar has shifted his arsenal and approach towards more swing-and-miss, he's seen his walk rate jump from 6.8% in 2019 to 10.8% in 2021. Much of that has to do with the curve, which he loses feel for at times in his starts; however, Kowar packs a plus changeup with a high-90s fastball, so when the curve is on, he can be a really dynamic young arm.
Given the fact that the Royals are not competing this year and gave another top pitching prospect, Daniel Lynch, a second chance after a poor first impression, I would expect them to give Kowar another run as they prepare him to start 2022 in the rotation. He doesn't have the upside of a Baz or Greene, but he's a solid young arm in a good pitcher's park, who could put together a few nice starts for the stretch run.
BONUS: Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels
Detmers has already been promoted and made three starts in the big leagues, but I wanted to call him out here because he actually finished number one on the leaderboard. Given that his last start against the Astros was pretty impressive, it might be time to add Detmers if he's still available in your league. I covered my thoughts on him on my video deep dive:
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