Lance McCullers Jr. 2020 Outlook: Talented Arm With Playing Time Risk
5 years agoHouston Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. is set to make his return to the mound in 2020 after missing all of 2019 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The talented right-handed went 10-6 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2018 before the injury. When he's on the mound, McCullers is a talented arm who uses an off-speed heavy approach, almost fully abandoning his four-seam fastball in 2018. He features a curve and change-up that both have a PutAway% of 25 or greater with the changeup registering a 6.8 pVAL in 2018. His SwStr% rose to an elite 13.5% in 2018 and his K-BB% was a solid 17.5%, which is further evidence of McCullers' strikeout upside when he's healthy. The only concern for the 2020 season is that the Astros have said they'll cap McCullers' innings around 120. How they will do that is anybody's guess. If McCullers gets put on the IL, fantasy owners can then pick up a SP to take his place, which would make him great value at his current ADP of 195. However, if he is shuffled up and down between AAA (he has two MiLB options left) or transferred to the bullpen for a stretch, it will be hard to keep him rostered and accrue value. He's a talent that is worth taking a chance on at the back-end of a fantasy rotation, but owners should make sure they can make up for his innings elsewhere.