Points Leagues Values: Third Basemen Set to Outperform ADP in 2022

This article will examine a few eligible third basemen for the 2022 MLB season that are being selected later than their Steamer projections suggest they should in points leagues and H2H points formats. RotoBaller's fantasy baseball points analyst Antonio Losada will be offering a few picks for both potential overperformers (sleepers) and shortcomers (busts) when it comes to the following baseball season at each of the six (C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF) rosterable positions through the remainder of the offseason gearing up to training camps and the preseason. ADP figures come from point-format contests over NFBC.

In general, points leagues and H2H points formats are extremely underserved by the fantasy baseball community and fantasy baseball outlets. But in case you weren't aware, here at RotoBaller, we really take pride in and specialize in points leagues. All through the preseason and MLB season, we'll be publishing rankings, tools, and analysis articles all geared for fantasy baseball points and H2H points leagues.

Before we get to the players themselves, let's quickly review points leagues and how they are different than other formats. Typically, points leagues have different league settings and scoring formats than other fantasy baseball leagues. Different MLB stats and categories are assigned different point values, and those can vary by individual league settings. Those different point buckets are then added up over the course of a scoring period or season. In many cases, hitters who walk more and strike out less are preferred for points leagues. Also, many league formats tend to give more weight to pitchers than normal as they can easily accrue points through categories like Innings Pitched. Without further ado, let's get it popping!

Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 48.8 - OVR Rk: 25 - POS Rk: 5

This is a risky bet, but here we are because we're brave. Nolan Barrelnado (you'll understand, bear with me) is getting off draft boards before we reach pick-50 overall, and precisely as the fifth highest-drafted 3B this offseason in terms of positional ADP... while boasting a Steamer projection of precisely 3B-5. All systems check, right? Well, if you ask me, I think Arenado can go one or two slots up in the final 2022 ranks at third base. Just my two cents right there, because I definitely don't believe the chart above paints a real image of Arenado's true talent level through the last couple of months of last season, and I believe in a rebound coming Nolan's way.

Now, for that Barrelnado bad joke. Nolan is not your absolute baseball murderer, that's for sure. A 6.7 Barrel% isn't bad, not at all, but it's not that he's leading the league at it or anything like that. But as our friend and fellow RotoBaller analyst Jon Anderson tweeted a few days ago, Arenado was the only player to hit an even 1:1 HR/Barrel last year. For real. Arenado hit 34 homers and logged 34 barrels, which is just crazy if you ask me. Jose Altuve was second at 31:33 (93.9%), and Patrick Wisdom ranked third at 28:30 (93.3). No freaking body topped a 90% HR-to-Barrel rate last year.

Not convinced yet? Well, let's quickly sum 'Nado and Competition up: Arenado has the highest BB/K ratio projected by Steamer among top-five 3B-men not named Jose Ramirez (0.82 against Nolan's 0.59); Arenado comes with with a projection of 62 extra-base hits, and again, projects to <100 SO on the year. The AVG isn't that great at .262 compared to other players at the position that will be vying for top-of-the-leaderboard positions, but he's impossible to keep off the bases sitting at a ridiculous 96th-percentile in Outs Above Avg, per Statcast. And somehow he's still 30 years old. Still a bunch of great years to come.

Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 134.7 - OVR Rk: 55 - POS Rk: 8

There is a little thing someone discovered just a few years ago called OBP that tells us more about a hitter than AVG does. Mindblowing, isn't it? Who would have thought!? Yet, fantasy GMs out there locked into good old 5x5 cat leagues are too geared into averages that they neglect on-base percentages. This, folks, is all about points, and high averages are good, but reaching base is what we want here more than anything. For one, that means walks. For two, that means not striking out. For three, being on base means a shot at scoring a run, stealing a base, etc, etc... You know what I'm saying. And for us super-savvy GMs, Turner projects to a tasteful .355 OBP to go with a noice .457 SLG that combines for the eighth-best OPS among 3B in Steamer's spreadsheets.

I know the hammy has you worried, but JT gave us hope a few days ago talking about a very healthy season being ahead of him. Just what we needed to hear. Turner is as old as they come, can't lie about it. That said, who are the Dodgers going to throw toward their third bag not named Justin? Zach McKinstry? Zachary? For real? Jeez. Turner is the man, full stop. Maybe not Trea, alright, but good enough--and then some. Turner has been doing in Hollywood for eight seasons already, and in the past six, he was good for at least top-103 overall finishes in ESPN points leagues and a phenomenal top-12-or-better outcome at the 3B position.

Steamer has JT projected to a 3B-8 finish next year. Not unheard of considering he's coming off a top-six finish in 2021 in which he endured a career-low BABIP (not counting 2009-10 as he just logged 40 combined PA) but still was able to post a good .278/.361/.471 slash line. The BB% and K% stayed solid and stable, and although Turner is not the 0.85+ BB/K-man of years past, he's still posting marks around 0.60 or higher (0.69 in 2020, 0.62 last year) that call for action come draft day.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 142.2 - OVR Rk: 104 - POS Rk: 11

Two Pirates project to more than 278 FP over the full 2022 season as Steamer has it, and both are named Bryan. That can't be a coincidence! The Pirates have no clear backup at the third base, which is the first positive for Hayes' upside and potential success next season--Hoy Park appears slotted as the no. 2 3B in some depth charts out there, which... alright?

Then, there is the fact that Hayes is entering his age-25 season after putting up 3.17 FPPG as a true-rook in 2019 (that was an odd, small sample partial season for him) and 1.82 last year on a much larger sample. A little bit disappointing all things considered (88 wRC+) but promising for a barren franchise.

Steamer might be too high on Hayes (2.31 FPPG, 11th-best 3B), but what I know for sure is that fantasy GMs drafting these days are too low on Hayes (142 ADP, 13th third-basemen off the board). Points leagues are all about volume, opportunity, and plate appearances. ESPN awards one point for every stolen base, which means stolen bases are as worth as a single, or an RBI, or a walk, which means we can fade the Mondesis of the world and favor extra-base hitters. That doesn't mean Hayes is fadeable because of his projected 12 SB. Far from it! That's just a tasty bonus!

Hayes projects to 33 doubles, which is to say he is projected to hit more doubles than all but three other players at the position (two of those, by the way, have ADPs of 13 and 6 overall). Steamer sees Hayes as a 53 extra-base hits player, is handing him an 83-R, 64-RBI baseline (which, I mean, considering he plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates) and a .332 OBP on par with that of Arenado and close enough to Austin Riley's, just to name a couple of guys with much higher ADPs. The EV, Hard%, Whiff%, Speed, and OAA percentiles ranking all inside the 70th+ Pctl. have me excited and I'm trusting a sure-to-come bounce back.

Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 176.1 - OVR Rk: 56 - POS Rk: 9

I can convince you about anything and everything, but I for sure won't convince you of Donaldson getting younger any time soon. Bad news: as far as I know, age doesn't positively regress. Good news: some folks age like wine. Enter Josh Donaldson. Speaking of this whole aging thing, JD went from walking at an 8.7% rate in his first five seasons of MLB ball to doing so at a 15.3% rate in the past six. The number went a bit down last year to a six-year low of 13.6%, which was still great nonetheless. You don't think so? Hmmm... let's see. What about the K% sitting at 21%? Does that make things look better? No?

Alright, what about the 0.65 BB/K ratio, then? Oh boy, that figure is it. Even being on the low compared to years prior (Donaldson posted a ridiculous 0.75 in 2020, and an even more bonkers 0.92 in 2016), that 0.65 ratio helped JD become one of only 18 players in the whole MLB to reach such a mark on 500+ PA last year. He was one of only three 3B to do so. Remember, we're talking points leagues in which good OBP averages, high walks, and low strikeouts are key. No stolen bases for Donaldson in 2021? No issue with that, because the 74 BB were JD's calling card!

Donaldson brings power (26 HR), extra-base sauce (26 doubles on top of that), does it on depressive BABIP numbers (.231 in 2020, .268 in 2021), and his wRC+ hasn't dropped below a 124 mark for three seasons and running. 14th third-baseman off the board these days while projected to a top-nine finish by Steamer. Nuff said.

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