Points League Pitchers: Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 25

3 years ago by Nicklaus Gaut

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We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help.

These waiver-wire adds are for the week of September 13th - September 19th, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN and Yahoo! Stats and rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, September 11th.

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Know Your System

If you've read me even a little, you likely know what I'm going to say...You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Every point, in every category, counts.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

For example, my home league started on a now-defunct platform before moving first to ESPN and is now at Fantrax. But our scoring is basically ESPN standard only with two points for stolen bases and a handful of other minor adjustments.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Waiver Wire Leaderboards

The charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships. All leaderboards are sorted according to the player's APR*, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

Starting Pitchers

Two Start Weeks

Must Adds

Reynaldo Lopez, CHW (vs LAA) - He goes in the rotation, he goes out but Lopez continues to be excellent, currently running a 2.05 ERA (3.28 FIP) over 44 IP in his 16 appearances (six starts). He gets to face one of baseball's worst offenses this week, as the Angels have a .285 wOBA and 24.6% K% vs RHP in the second half. I mean, aren't we about due for an 8-9 IP gem that Lopez loves to randomly throw up? I feel like we are.
Jake Odorizzi, HOU (@ TEX, vs ARI) - Oh baby, we got a juicy little two-step for ol' boring mcgee, Jake Odorizzi, who has been excellent in his last four starts, posting a 2.61 ERA and going 2-0. Granted, three of those were against Seattle and the other against Texas but I'm not going to hold it against him considering both of his opponents this week are about just as bad. The Rangers have a .296 wOBA and 22.5% K% vs RHP in the second half, while Arizona has a .304 wOBA and 25.1% K%.
James Kaprielian, OAK (@ LAA) - After allowing a total of 10 ER in his previous two starts, Kaprielian rebounded against the White Sox, allowing one earned run over four innings in a no-decision. He'll face a floundering Angels team that has a 24.6% K% vs RHP in the second half, with just a .285 wOBA.
Nestor Cortes Jr. (@ BAL) - Cortes Jr. is coming off of two impressive starts, allowing a total of three earned runs in 11.2 IP, not picking up a win but striking out 12 batters. And one was against the red-hot Blue Jays, with the other coming against the Orioles, his Week 25 opponent. Playing at Baltimore's home bandbox is always a dangerous proposition but I'll take the chance.
Vladimir Gutierrez, CIN (@ PIT) - After a couple of hiccups in losses to the Marlins and Tigers, Gutierrez got it back going the right way in a no-decision against the Cubs last week, allowing 1 ER over 5 IP, striking out six. He'll face a Pirates team that has a .294 wOBA vs RHP in 2021, the second-worst mark in baseball.
Adrian Houser, MIL (vs CHC) - After pitching a complete-game shutout against the Cardinals on September 4, Houser kept the train rolling against Cleveland, allowing two runs (0 ER) over six innings, picking up the win, and striking out five. He'll look to keep things steaming against the Chicago Schwindels, who have a 27.2% K% vs RHP in 2021, the highest in baseball.
Luis Gil, NYY (@ BAL) - The rookie has to go to the Baltimore bandbox but also gets to its residents, who have just a .315 wOBA and 23.5% K% vs RHP in the second half. Gil has a 1.42 ERA (2.85 FIP) through his first four starts, striking out 24 batters in 19 IP.
Cole Irvin, OAK (@ LAA) - Irvin put together his first good start in a while in his last time out, striking out eight Rangers over seven innings, while allowing 2 ER in a no-decision. He gets the Angels, who have been mostly hapless in the second half, running a .292 wOBA vs LHP that is the fourth-worst in baseball.

Can Adds

Eric Lauer, MIL (vs CHC) - Lauer is coming off of back-to-back 7 IP outings, allowing just one earned run total. He gets a bad Cubs team that has a 27.7% K% vs LHP in the second half.
Michael Wacha, TB (vs DET) - Don't look now but Wacha is currently sucking us all back in. Since allowing a total of 18 ER over his first three starts in August, Wacha has now only allowed a total of 7 ER over his last four starts, posting a 3.10 ERA over 20.1 IP, while striking out 28 batters. He faces a Tigers team with a 24.5% K% vs RHP in the second half, with a .308 wOBA.
Carlos Hernandez, KC (vs OAK) - He has a 1.09 ERA (2.80 FIP) over his last four games but faces an Oakland team with above-average numbers vs RHP, with a 22.1% K%.
Elieser Hernandez, MIA (vs PIT) - Hernandez hasn't looked sharp since returning from the IL on August 15, posting a 4.74 ERA over five starts, allowing six home runs in 24.2 IP. But he gets the Pirates, who have a .295 wOBA vs RHP in the second half.
Brady Singer, KC (vs SEA) - Singer was rocked in his last start, allowing 6 ER on five home runs in a loss to the Twins. He'll have a shot to rebound at home against the Mariners, who have a 24.5% K% vs RHP in the second half, with a ho-hum .306 wOBA.
Logan Gilbert, SEA (vs BOS, @ KC) - One great matchup, one rotten one. Boston has a.350 wOBA vs RHP in the second half, while Kansas City has just a .287 wOBA.
Paulo Espino, WSH (vs MIA, vs COL) - Espino got rocked in his last start, allowing 5 ER in 5 IP. But he did continue to up his strikeout game, with his 7 K bringing him to an 11.4 K/9 over his last four starts. He gets two home games against an average offense in the Rockies and a really bad one in the Marlins, who have a .296 wOBA vs RHP in the second half.
Touki Toussaint, ATL (vs COL, @ SF) - Toussaint has a ho-hum 4.11 ERA but a lot of that is wrapped up in two bad outings, allowing 7 ER to the Brewers in late July and 4 ER in Colorado on September 2. If you throw those two duds out, Toussaint would have a 2.27 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 39.2 IP. The walks continue to be an issue but you could do worse if you're needing some bulk starts.
Tylor Megill, NYM (vs STL) - The Cardinals have been better against RHP in the second half but still aren't much more than average, posting a .313 wOBA and 22.8% K%. Megill has had his struggles but is coming off of an impressive win over the Yankees, allowing 2 ER over 7 IP, while striking out 10. With a 27.2% K% in 2021, the rookie's whiffery is for real and at any time the Cardinals offense is capable of being shut down by a high-K pitcher.
Tanner Houck, BOS (@ SEA) - Houck got hit around a little by the White Sox in his last start (3 ER, 3.2 IP) but faces a Seattle team with a .306 wOBA and 24.5% K% vs RHP in the second half.
Joe Ryan, MIN (vs CLE) - After allowing three earned runs over five innings in his first major league start, Ryan looked impressive in a win over Cleveland, allowing zero runs in seven innings, while striking out four. He'll face Cleveland again in Week 25, who have just a .298 wOBA and 24.6% K% vs RHP in the second half.
Dillon Peters, PIT (vs CIN, @ MIA) - Peters has been a small bright spot in Pittsburg, running a 3.38 ERA in his first four starts, striking out 15 over 18.2 IP. He has two solid matchups in Week 25, as the Reds have been pretty average vs LHP (.305 wOBA in the second half) and the Marlins are the Marlins (.294 wOBA, 28.5% K% vs LHP in the second half).
Jake Woodford, STL (@ NYM) - Woodford is coming off of two pretty good no-decisions vs the Dodgers and Brewers, allowing just one earned run over a total of 9.1 IP, striking out eight. He'll face a struggling Mets team that has a .324 wOBA vs RHP in the second half.
Kris Bubic, KC (vs SEA) - Bubic is coming off of a no-decision vs BAL, where he allowed 2 ER in 5.1 IP and gets a below-average Seattle offense in Week 25.

Desperate Adds

Antonio Senzatela, COL (@ ATL) - Has anyone else noticed that Senzatela has picked up a quality start in his past six outings, posting a 2.54 ERA (3.32 FIP)? And that these weren't against cupcakes, with matchups against the Dodgers, Astros, Padres, Braves, Phillies, and Cubs?... Ok, there was one sweet treat in there but Senzatela has been pretty decent, even if he only had 22 K in those 39 IP. In his matchup against Atlanta, he allowed three earned runs over seven innings, striking out three. Not a high ceiling but it has to be better than...
Jon Lester, STL (@ NYM) - I'm begging you, don't do this. Lester has a 1.90 ERA over his last four starts, striking out 13 over 23.2 IP. But the FIP hammer is ready to drop, with Lester posting a 5.53 FIP/4.99 xFIP over that stretch. Don't be the nail. But I'd rather be Lester's nail than...
Rich Hill, NYM (vs STL, vs PHI) - There's no way I'm this desperate. St. Louis has smashed lefties all year but particularly in the second half, running a .373 wOBA, and Philadelphia has a .328 wOBA with only an 18.2% K%. Don't die on this hill.

Notable IL

Zach Eflin, PHI
Nick Pivetta, BOS
Dylan Bundy, LAA
Domingo German, NYY
Matthew Boyd, DET
Carlos Martinez, STL
Johnny Cueto, SF
Danny Duffy, LAD
Merrill Kelly, ARI
Alex Cobb, LAA
J.T. Brubaker, PIT
Brad Keller, KC
Mike Foltynewicz, TEX
Brett Anderson, MIL
Reid Detmers, LAA

Relief Pitchers

Keep in mind that with relievers, points scored can be deceiving. Most scoring systems make it pretty difficult for even the best non-closers to score elite points, making them very reliant on unpredictable wins. You simply need the save points to really do damage. AKA, when you see totally random names hit the leaderboard (particularly the 14-Day one), it's probably because they happened to get a few wins and/or a lot of usage. If a reliever doesn't have an established role, tread carefully.

One note about ownership; because ESPN uses nine open pitching slots, as opposed to dedicated slots for RP/SP, relievers tend to be lighter owned than on other sites.

Notable IL

With the trade deadline (and injuries) shaking bullpens up all over the league, we're going to do things a little differently in the second half, going through each team that currently has a relevant (according to our roster% threshold) bullpen situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

It's been a committee since Tyler Clippard went on the COVID-IL, with Noe Ramirez the only one to pick up a save in his absence. But Clippard threw a bullpen on Saturday and is likely to slot back in at the backend soon.

Baltimore Orioles

In the Mix: Cole Sulser (Loss/Blown Save on Monday, Save on Friday), Tyler Wells (Save on Wednesday, Loss/Blown Save on Saturday)

Boston Red Sox

In the Mix: Adam Ottovino (Hold on Monday), Garrett Whitlock (Loss/Blown Save on Monday, Win on Saturday), Hansel Robles (Save on Wednesday).

Chicago Cubs

In the Mix: Rowan Wick (one appearance on Wednesday), Codi Heuer (Blown Save on Monday, Win on Wednesday).

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Cincinnati Reds

In the Mix: Mychal Givens (Save on Tuesday, Save on Friday), Michael Lorenzon (Loss on Monday, Hold on Tuesday, Win on Friday).

Colorado Rockies

In the Mix: Carlos Estevez (Loss/Blown Save on Wednesday, Save on Thursday).

Miami Marlins

In the Mix: It's Floro's job, for the time being. He picked up saves on Thursday and Saturday but also plays for the Marlins, so good luck depending on steady production.

Oakland Athletics

In the Mix: Andrew Chafin (Save on Wednesday, Loss/Blown Save on Saturday), Sergio Romo (Hold on Wednesday), Jake Diekman (two appearances last week).

Pittsburgh Pirates

In the Mix: David Bednar (Save on Monday, Hold on Tuesday), Chris Stratton (Hold on Monday, Save on Tuesday, Save on Saturday).

Seattle Mariners

In the Mix: Drew Steckenrider (Hold on Tuesday, Save on Friday), Paul Sewald (Blown Save on Tuesday), Diego Castillo (Hold on Tuesday, Win on Wednesday, Hold on Friday).

Tampa Bay Rays

In the Mix: Andrew Kittredge (Blown Save on Friday), Pete Fairbanks (Loss on Friday), Collin McHugh (Win on Monday), Dave Robertson (one appearance this week), J. T. Chargois (Loss/Blown Save on Wednesday)

Texas Rangers

In the Mix: Spencer Patton (Hold on Monday, Hold on Saturday), Joe Barlow (Save on Wednesday, Save on Saturday).

Washington Nationals

In the Mix: Kyle Finnegan (Win on Monday, Save on Wednesday).

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