RADIO
Chicks dig the longball, right? There are so many freaking players who could hit 35 or more home runs, and I hated having to leave guys like Miguel Sano, J.D. Martinez and Josh Donaldson off this list. Also, Manny Machado, Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Byung-ho Park, David Ortiz, Albert Pujols, Yoenis Cespedes, Carlos Gonzalez. I could keep going, but you get the point.
Last season, nine guys broke the 40-HR threshold. I see just five guys reaching the mark this year, with five others eclipsing 35.
2016's Top 10 Home Run Leaders
10. Todd Frazier (Projected Home Runs: 36)
Perhaps the Home Run Derby played a role in his second-half dud (.200/.274/.390 with 10 HR after the All-Star break), perhaps not. Regardless, Frazier can rake. He had 25 homers in the first half, and could continue with a similar pace in 2016. Moving to another hitter-friendly park on the south-side of Chicago, Frazier will be a part of a stronger offensive unit and could be in store for his best season.
9. Jose Bautista (Projected Home Runs: 36)
Bautista can mash. Over the last four years, Joey Bats has 130 homers, sixth in baseball. He hasn't come close to matching the 54 dingers he hit in his 2010 breakout campaign, but he has improved his total in each of the last four years - amassing 40 in 2015. With protection on both sides of him in the lineup, Bautista is another guy with 40-homer potential. Mid-30s is probably more realistic though.
8. Edwin Encarnacion (Projected Home Runs: 37)
Every year, Encarnacion seems to fly under the radar, and every year he produces at a high level. Over the last four years, Encarnacion is second in home runs with 151, behind just Davis. The Blue Jays' slugger has smacked at least 34 each year over that span, and should have no trouble doing so again in 2016. The Jays' lineup is loaded with power bats, and Encarnacion should have ample opportunities to drive in runs via the long ball.
7. Nolan Arenado (Projected Home Runs: 37)
Arenado was an absolute stud last year: 42 home runs, 130 runs batted in, .575 slugging percentage. He's hit .287 each of the last two years. He likely won't improve on his overall numbers, but that doesn't mean he is due for regression. Playing his home games in Coors Field, Arenado should continue to see the ball leave the park on a regular basis.
6. Nelson Cruz (Projected Home Runs: 38)
Cruz posted an unheard of 30.3% HR/FB, the highest in the majors since Ryan Howard in 2008 (31.8%). So, his 44 HR from last year might not hold up, but he is very capable of sniffing 40 again.
Safeco field isn't exactly a hitter's haven, but Cruz managed last year, finishing second in baseball in home runs. His .350 BABIP is likely to regress, so his overall numbers could drop as a result, but he still has an absurd power stroke.
5. Jose Abreu (Projected Home Runs: 40)
Abreu had a bit of a down year in 2015 following a stellar rookie campaign during which he hit 36 homers in 556 at-bats. He still hit 30 bombs last year, but he saw a significant drop in his rate stats. Only 19.7% of his fly balls cleared the fence, down from 26.9% in 2014, and his ISO fell from .264 to .212. Still, he has incredible power, and he should have no problem driving balls out of the park in U.S. Cellular Field, especially with an improved offense around him. I expect a full-fledged breakout that includes 40 homers.
4. Mike Trout (Projected Home Runs: 40)
Trout came up in 2012 and hit 30 HR to go along with 49 SB and a .326 AVG. Over the past few years, though, he has sacrificed average and steals for power, as he stole a career-low 11 bases and managed just a .299 average, but smacked a career-high 41 homers. Trout has only missed 13 games over the last three seasons, so a home run total close to 40 is not only reasonable, but realistic. That benchmark could be in jeopardy if Pujols misses an extended amount of time, but even without any protection, the homers will come.
3. Bryce Harper (Projected Home Runs: 42)
Harper doesn't have the reputation as a power hitter that some of these other players have, but he should be a lock for at least 35 bombs every season going forward. Harper should have a healthy Anthony Rendon ahead of him and a healthy Ryan Zimmerman behind him, giving him the protection he needs to ensure that pitchers do not constantly pitch around him. Nationals Park has a 335-foot porch in right field that was practically designed for Harper, as he pulled the ball 45.4% of the time last year. Twenty of his 42 homers were to right field. Harper's ceiling is limitless and he should at least match last year's home run total.
2. Chris Davis (Projected Home Runs: 44)
As long as they don't take away his Vyvanse, he's on this list. Davis has hit 100 total home runs in the last two seasons in which he has had the prescription. With Machado, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez also on the roster, the Orioles could have one of the most powerful offenses in baseball, and it starts with Davis. Over the last three seasons, he has 126 total dingers and an absurd .292 ISO, both of which lead the majors over that span. He's a lock for 40 and could once again be the AL Home Run King, but again, if Stanton is healthy, it's tough to imagine "Crush" finishing first on this list.
1. Giancarlo Stanton (Projected Home Runs: 49)
This should be a given. If he's healthy, he'll chase 50. The problem is, of course, that he hasn't been healthy - he's played more than 125 games just twice in his six-year career. Still, he was on pace to sniff 60 in 2015 before breaking a bone in his hand in late June. Stanton finished tied for 25th in home runs last year despite the fact that 23 of the 24 players with more long balls had at least 521 at-bats. Stanton had 297.
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