RADIO
For the very last cheat sheet of the NFL season, I will be breaking down both games with my core plays as a guideline as to how to I will go about building my lineups. I will be using DVOA ranks from Football Outsiders for the offensive and defensive stats.
Tampa Bay Bucs (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers (51.5 O/U)
Tampa Bay Offense: 3rd Overall, 5th Passing, 10th Rushing
Green Bay Defense: 17th Overall, 15th vs. Pass, 18th vs. Run
We have to have some interest in Tampa's offense on this slate with Green Bay's defense being middling at best and with the Bucs really hitting their stride down the stretch. But figuring out which pieces we want is really tricky and there aren't any obvious answers.
Leonard Fournette has become the lead back this postseason and ripped out two straight excellent games in the playoffs. But he's no longer a bargain and you could even argue he could now be overpriced for a guy who still ended up splitting touches with Ronald Jones last week. The GB run defense is definitely vulnerable, so both backs have potential here with Jones being a potentially sneaky GPP option at a much cheaper price.
If we had more clarity about Antonio Brown's injury, it would be easy to say Chris Godwin is a core play, but we may not know until Sunday if AB suits up. Mike Evans caught only one pass last week (but for a touchdown) and will likely have a tougher matchup than Godwin as far as cornerbacks go. I like Godwin a lot, but will like him a whole bunch more if AB doesn't play. If you're stacking up the Bucs, I see the case for Tom Brady with Godwin and Lenny and Brady's price is definitely appealing with the other QBs being more expensive. I think Green Bay wins the game and the Bucs are forced to throw a good bit which makes Brady + passing game options very viable in GPP formats. Gronk and Cameron Brate are both in play here, too, with Brate having come on of late.
UPDATE: Antonio Brown is OUT!
Core Plays: Chris Godwin
Other Plays: Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, Cameron Brate, Rob Gronkowski
Green Bay Offense: 1st Overall, 1st Passing, 5th Rushing
Tampa Bay Defense: 5th Overall, 5th vs. Pass, 1st vs. Run
The Packers' offense is simply on another level right now and we saw them move the ball with ease against a really good Rams' defense last week. Yes, they were shut down by Tampa earlier this season in their worst loss of the season, but I am not putting too much stock into that game when analyzing this one.
The GB offense is simply firing on all cylinders and even when the Rams thought they had a chance to get back in the game last week, Rodgers hit Lazard on a beautiful long ball on a play-action pass to bust the game open. The Bucs run defense is legit, but they still struggle to pressure the QB and their corners are vulnerable in coverage. They had a big day against Brees last week, but Aaron Rodgers is playing MVP-caliber football right now and Drew Brees was clearly playing "I'm ready to retire my arm is tired" football last week.
A pass-funnel defense against the best passing offense in the NFL makes the Rodgers-Adams combo one of the top pairings on this slate and the emergence of Robert Tonyan as a goal-line threat and both Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as secondary targets makes this passing game very stackable. I will have 100% Adams this week and I'm pretty much convinced he's matchup proof at this point and will score a TD. They've shown that they are willing to throw him the ball even inside the 5-yard line.
Core Plays: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams
Other Plays: Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard
Buffalo Bills (+3.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (53.5 O/U)
Buffalo Offense: 5th Overall, 3rd Passing, 22nd Rushing
Kansas City Defense: 22nd Overall, 16th vs. Pass, 31st vs. Run
The Bills pulled off a solid home win against the Ravens last week, mainly on the strength of their defense. But their offense did move the ball up and down the field and put enough points on the board to pick up their first playoff win in like a thousand years. Josh Allen and this offense will get a considerably better matchup this weekend against a KC defense that has struggled all year to slow teams down.
KC's biggest weakness is in stopping the run, but the Bills have shown very little interest in running the ball with Devin Singletary getting only 7 totes last week. We still have to consider him here, though, as Zack Moss is still out and he does have a role in the passing game. The primary focus for me will be on Allen and his two main targets, John Brown and Stefon Diggs. I was all over Brown last week even after he was shut out in the wild card game and he came up big with 8 catches on 11 targets for 62 yards. Diggs was also 8 for 11 for 106 yards and a score as the two of them made up the vast majority of the receiving targets and yardage for Buffalo.
Dawson Knox and Cole Beasley could be sneaky plays here based on the fact that recency bias is going to push more people onto John Brown, and we have to be willing to take some shots on secondary pieces this week with a more condensed player pool. Knox doesn't get much volume, but KC has been pretty bad against Tight Ends this season.
Core Plays: John Brown, Stefon Diggs
Other Plays: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Dawson Knox
Kansas City Offense: 2nd Overall, 2nd Passing, 13th Rushing
Buffalo Defense: 12th Overall, 12th vs. Pass, 17th vs. Run
Will Mahomes play this weekend? My gut says yes, but it also tells me to eat Taco Bell sometimes so it's not totally infallible. How much do we downgrade the KC offense if it's Chad Henne under center? These are important questions and it feels like this is the game that is going to make or break this slate.
If Mahomes is in, then it's all systems go for KC and you have to elevate Kelce and Tyreek Hill into their usual "near must-play status" as both have such incredibly high floors and ceilings. Kelce has the better matchup of the two and is likely going to be more popular since he's a TE and there are these guys named Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs in the player pool at WR.
If Henne is the starter, then the Chiefs are likely going to try to run the ball more, which we saw them do (and do pretty effectively) against the Browns in the second half last week. With CEH looking very iffy and LeVeon Bell being a non-factor, Darrel Williams is the guy we want against this Bills run defense and he has shown chops in the passing game, too. KC abused the Bills on the ground in their first matchup this season and Andy Reid is smart enough to know that he's going to need to establish the run against the Bills, regardless of it's it Henne or Mahomes under center.
Core Plays: Travis Kelce, Darrel Williams
Other Plays: Patrick Mahomes (if he starts), Chad Henne (for value if he starts), Tyreek Hill
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Championship Sunday
FanDuel Lineup
DraftKings Lineup
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building-block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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