RADIO
Welcome to Conference Championship Weekend of the 2021 NFL playoffs, RotoBallers! For the playoffs, I won't be posting my usual spreadsheet, but instead, I will be breaking down each of the games with my favorite plays, pivots, and general strategy on how I am going to approach players in that game on each slate.
Two game slates are tough and it often comes down to one or two strategic fades/plays that can make or break your day. It seems like you can probably get a little of everyone if you're playing a lot of lineups, but you are still going to have to take some stands on certain players in order to make it a profitable slate. I included two different lineups for each site today to give you a few different ideas on how I am going about making my builds.
Stats/Matchups for Conference Championship Games
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Game by Game Breakdowns - Conference Championship Sunday
3:05 PM - Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (54.5 total)
Previous Meetings: 1/2 - Bengals won 34-31
This game should be the more heavily targeted of the two as it has a significantly higher total and we saw these teams pop off for 64 total points in their first meeting earlier this month. With KC having the 26th-ranked DVOA defense overall and Cincy having the 19th-rated defense, these high-powered offenses are in a position to score a lot of points.
I think most people will look to stack this game, and that's probably the optimal approach. There are going to be dozens of ways to approach this game, but the first decision is really whether you want to go heavier on the Bengals or Chiefs side. What is unique here, is that despite thinking the Chiefs will likely win this game, I think the Bengals stacks are a little more compelling. It's a little easier to fit the pieces we want from the Cincy side of things and I think their production is slightly more predictable as well.
Let's start with Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, who have been a dynamic duo this season and combined for a huge performance in the Bengals' win over the Chiefs late in the regular season when they hooked up for three touchdowns. With how badly the Chiefs' secondary looked against the Bills last week, it's hard not to love Chase in this game and I think Burrow will have to push the ball down the field to him to try to make some big plays. The easiest third piece of this stack would be Joe Mixon, who is expensive on FanDuel, but the only real dual-threat, game-script independent back on the slate. A Burrow-Mixon-Chase stack could get you exposure to every Bengals touchdown and Mixon's pass game involvement bodes well for the correlation there, too.
My buddy KC Bubba pointed this out in his premium stacks piece, but adding C.J. Uzomah to a Burrow-Chase stack could be one way to get different as Uzomah has had a large role in this offense down the stretch for the Bengals. I'm leaning that way as it's more affordable to do that than to try to cram in another Bengals wideout like Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd. If I have to pick between Higgins and Boyd, it's actually Higgins this week as Boyd's target volume has shrunk and he's been getting by on scoring touchdowns - which finally dried up last week.
For the Chiefs' stacks, you will definitely want some exposure to Mahomes and his weapons as they reminded us last week just dangerous they can be. As a general rule of thumb, I never stack Mahomes with both Hill and Kelce as they have been negatively correlated throughout their career together in KC and that three-man stack simply costs too much.
I'm actually prioritizing Byron Pringle ahead of both Kelce and Hill. His role in this offense has been solidified down the stretch as he's garnered 7 or more targets in four of his last five games and has caught five touchdowns in that span (four of them in the two games against the Steelers - oof.) He's just far too cheap for his target share and that type of red-zone involvement.
Between Kelce and Hill, I will lean Kelce here as I think Cincy is vulnerable in the middle of the field and will likely do whatever they can to contain the electric Hill. The most important thing here might be to nail which Chiefs' back is the most productive. It looks like Darrel Williams will be active for this one and he could muddy the situation up even further, but I think both CEH and McKinnon have some upside here. CEH should handle most of the early-down work and was effective in limited carries last week, while McKinnon continued to thrive in his pass-catching role while also handling 10 carries, too. I lean McKinnon here just based on how dynamic he's looked the last few weeks, but CEH could be in line for goal-line work, and for that reason, he's absolutely viable in GPPs, too.
CORE PLAYS: Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Byron Pringle, Jerick McKinnon
OTHER PLAYS: Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, C.J. Uzomah, Tee Higgins
6:30 PM - San Francisco 49ers @ L.A. Rams (45.5 total)
Previous Meetings: 11/15 - Niners won 31-10, 1/9 - Niners won 27-24
This is going to be the game that is more contrarian to stack as both of these offenses have tougher matchups here. These teams are very familiar with each other as division rivals and the Niners swept the season series 2-0 with a big win early in the year and then a late-game rally in the final week of the regular season to get into the playoffs.
Despite those wins and an improbable win last week in Green Bay, the Niners are still dogs here on the road and I would be surprised if they're able to pull off yet another upset here and do something that isn't all that easy to do - beat a team three times in the same year AND win three road playoff games. Eli Mitchell and Deebo Samuel are both targets here as the main ball-carriers for the Niners but they have eaten into each other's production. Mitchell's lack of receptions makes him entirely touchdown dependent and Deebo has been stealing some TDs. The lack of volume for Deebo makes him a really expensive play for a guy with that few guaranteed touches. There's a case to make for either of them in GPPs, but I don't think I would play them together.
The Niners pass-catchers are interesting here, especially if think they have to throw it a bunch in order to keep up with the Rams' offense. George Kittle is probably my favorite play there, but Brandon Aiyuk could be poised for a big bounceback week after going catch less last week in Green Bay. The SF defense is in play here as well and they scored well in both matchups this season and had a huge game last week with the blocked field goal and the blocked punt return for a TD that completely turned that game around.
The Rams side of things should be more popular, but for good reason, as they looked great in their win last week. Cooper Kupp is a must-play in all formats and Tyler Higbee is right there with Uzomah as a great cheap option at TE. After that, things get a bit dicey and we are guessing quite a bit. I like playing Stafford in some GPPs to be different and pairing him with Kupp, Higbee and one of either Cam Akers or OBJ. Akers had those two bad fumbles, but I think we see him continue to be the guy this week as he's just that much better than Sony Michel. Now an early fumble in this game could land him on the bench, but he's dynamic with the ball in space and a great receiving threat so I think they'll continue to use him.
OBJ is a solid GPP play, too, and I'd much rather use him than Van Jefferson who has basically disappeared in this offense. The Rams D/ST is the most expensive on the slate and will probably be popular, but they have some upside here with their solid pass rush and some interception potential with Jimmy G's problematic decision-making.
CORE PLAYS: Cooper Kupp, Rams D/ST, Tyler Higbee
OTHER PLAYS: Matthew Stafford, Deebo Samuel, Elijah Mitchell, George Kittle, Odell Beckham Jr.
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Divisional Round Sunday
FanDuel Lineups
DraftKings Lineups
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building-block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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