RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~114 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~136
ANALYSIS: Williams had a memorable rookie campaign, racking up 428 yards and three touchdowns across eight games in 2019. He would catch 32-of-60 targets before tearing his ACL last November, standing as the 45th WR in both PPR and half-PPR leagues when it came to PPG. That amounted for a strong first-half showing from a rookie on a rebuilding Dolphins team that tried to make Josh Rosen work at the outset and pretty much failed at it.
It took Williams until Week 3 to get above a 70% snap count, and Miami had games against Baltimore, New England, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh in his eight-game window. Those are four of the top-five pass defenses per FootballOutsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average from 2019. He’d just had a cool two-touchdown game against the Jets when the torn ACL ended his season, but he is now on track to become Miami's WR2 in usage only behind late-bloomer DeVante Parker and his impressive 2019 year too.
Williams will get fantasy-slinger Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa throwing to him alongside DeVante Parker over the course of the 2020 season. Looking at the receiver position depth, Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns have opted out and no further competition was brought in, making Williams, Parker, and Mike Gesicki the pass-catching trio with Matt Breida operating out of the backfield.
PFF projects Parker to get 110 looks and Williams 100, which makes for super-close target shares of 23.7% and 21.5% respectively. Hopefully, for the rookie, Parker will still be seen as the go-to receiver on Miami's offense, thus taking the best defender's attention and freeing Williams a bit on a team likely to find itself playing catch-up in most second halves. The injury discount is far too gracious at this point with Williams getting drafted as the WR53 but projecting to a very good 168 PPR points over the year.
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