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We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason as we already completed our first run back in June. You can check our first review of the early-summer risers and fallers at running back, wide receiver, tight end, and quarterback.
Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player in your team.
ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition.
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Quarterbacks - ADP Risers
Tyrod Taylor, Los Angeles Chargers
The last news regarding the battle-of-quarterbacks going on in LA between Tyrod Taylor and rookie Justin Herbert reported about the freshman battling the veteran in training camp in order to get the starting gig for Week 1. That seemed a little bit optimistic for the rookie back then, and it still does now. That is why fantasy GMs keep banking on Taylor as the early starter because his ADP upward trend (small but sure) shows.
For how long Taylor will remain as the Chargers starter we don't know. But similar to the situation of Mitchell Trubisky in Chicago, Taylor will start the first game of the season and the team will go from there. Does that mean you should buy Taylor at his current (and rising) ADP? Not really. PFF has the combination of Taylor and Herbert projected to reach 281 PPR points. That's an insane amount, but again, that's combining both players' points. If we assume Taylor gets the highest tally, he'd end with 185 points... good for QB30 in the ranks and 93rd-best player in the season when all positions are considered.
Those numbers would make the veteran quite a value given his undrafted stock, but he'd also be the worst starter in the league. You just don't draft or even get such a player for free through waivers in any league, even if it's a two-QB, 20-team league. Don't buy on this trend and fade Taylor even if Herbert gets injured in camp and misses the whole season. The upside is minimal no matter how you look at it.
Cam Newton, New England Patriots
Although Cam Newton's ADP is in fact rising, it surprises me that it is not getting even a larger boost up. I don't believe one bit of the talk regarding a potential battle between Newton and Jarrett Stidham for the starting QB position on the Patriots. No matter how bad Newton looks this summer in training camps, he'll be there on the field when the ball is snapped for the first time during the 2020 season. And if that is not the case, it won't take more than a drive for him to overcome Stidham and make it to the field, let's be honest here.
With all of the injury concerns he carries with him, Newton is projected to only get 241 PPR points next season (PFF). That would see him finish the year as the QB23, which is on par with Philip Rivers and Gardner Minshew II. The former Panther brings massive upside though, as he can pass, run, and even receive passes himself if he wanted.
And all of that is at a nice ADP of "just" around 130 overall, which means Newton is getting drafted outside of the top-10 rounds and is definitely someone to consider as your late-round quarterback draftee. Even if his ADP keeps rising, I'd still bet on Newton having a great season in his comeback year. Target Cam.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott's ADP is getting insane (to a certain extent, you know) as he's now become the third QB getting off the board and only behind clear no. 1 and no. 2 Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Prescott is currently boasting a 65 ADP overall and getting drafted inside the sixth round of redraft league drafts. He's the only one getting picked that early along with Kyler Murray, but the value Prescott is poised to produce is way above the Arizona Cardinals QB.
PFF has a projection of 316 PPR points for Prescott, who would finish the year as the QB3 and fifth-best player overall in 2020 fantasy leagues. That's crazy production no matter how you look at it or the price it comes at. You might want other players at the position such as Deshaun Watson, but the difference in ADP and projected PPR points isn't really great as to make one a true better value over the other one.
Superstar players come at expensive prices, which doesn't mean you shouldn't pay for them. It is hard to see Prescott's ADP getting much higher, but even if it still rises a little bit, he'll be worth paying for even considering the high-octane offense of his Cowboys.
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