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On the surface, it appears that Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers is having a pretty good season. He’s slashing an impressive .278/.351/.592 and is in the top 10 in the majors in both home runs (13) and RBI (39). He’s even doubled his walk rate from 5.2% to a career-high 9.9%.
The batted ball profile is even more impressive, as he ranks in the top 10% of all major league hitters in exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, and XSLG. All the signs point to Devers having a career season, yet his batting average is barely in the top 50 in baseball. The culprit: bad luck.
If you thought Devers was due for a slump in the near future, you might be wrong. If anything, things might get even better.
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Why Has Devers Been So Unlucky?
The difference between his expected batting average and his actual batting average is an outstanding 41 points, meaning that his batted ball profile would suggest that he would be hitting 41 points higher than he actually is. His expected slugging tells a similar story, as it is .47 points higher than his actual slugging.
Devers' BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is right around league average at .313, but you would expect it to be much higher for a guy who hits the ball as hard as anyone in the majors. Simply put, Devers has been a good hitter this year, but his luck on his batted balls has held him back from being a top hitter in baseball.
One of the main reasons for Devers' lousy luck this season has been Fenway Park. Fenway Park has never been particularly conducive for home runs, especially during the cold months of April and May, but this season has been on another level.
According to ESPN’s park factors, Fenway only has a .724 home run factor, third-worst in the majors ahead of only Miller Park in Milwaukee and Citi Field in New York. It’s particularly difficult for left-handed pull hitters like Devers, as straight-away right field is a whopping 380 feet away.
Thus far this season, Devers has done almost all his damage on the road, as he is slugging nearly 400 points higher and has hit nine of his 13 home runs away from Fenway. As the weather in Boston heats up and the ball starts flying, expect Devers' home output to match his production on the road.
Future Outlook
One might look at Rafael Devers' 2019 season as his ceiling. During that breakout season, he slashed .311/.361/.555 with 32 home runs and 115 RBI. It’s hard to think that Devers can ever exceed those lofty numbers, but there are a couple of reasons why his best days might be ahead of him.
First and foremost, 2019 was Devers’ age-22 season, and he has shown improved maturity as evident by his increased walk rate. The second is his improved ability against lefties. It’s fair to assume that Devers will always hit worse against lefties than righties, as he has a career OPS of nearly over 150 points lower against southpaws, but he has been able to at least hold his own against them this year. His .353 on-base percentage against same-siders is over 50 points higher than it was in 2019.
It also helps that Devers has avoided injury so far, proving to be an iron man in his young carrer.
Am still fascinated by the fact that as of Sunday morn the leaders in innings played defensively in 2019-2020-2021 are, in order, Cesar Hernandez, Freddie Freeman Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Nick Ahmed.
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) May 23, 2021
In RotoBaller's recently-updated Rest-Of-Season rankings, Devers is 23rd overall and third among third basemen. Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, and Manny Machado have been the cream of the crop among third baseman so far this year, but as Devers heats up with the summer, don’t be surprised if he ends the season as the top fantasy third baseman in baseball.
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