RADIO
This is the first edition of our weekly series on Statcast Pitcher Analysis. Normally, I will select a different sabermetric evaluation method to identify undervalued and/or overvalued pitchers. Since we have less than a week's worth of data under our belt for 2020, let's take one more look back at last year's Statcast data to find pitchers who could provide unexpected value.
To take things a step further in this unique season, I will focus on an increasingly important facet of fantasy teams - relievers. Most non-closers don't find their way onto fantasy rosters in a typical season, but the lack of depth in some starting rotations and concerns over pitch counts early in the year have made middle relievers and setup men more valuable.
Finding RP who can stabilize ratios while providing a nice floor for strikeouts (a.k.a. JB's Bullpen Method) is a smart way to approach a shortened 2020 season that has already been full of surprises. That said, here are some relief pitchers who posted impressive Statcast numbers in 2019 that could be worth adding or watching.
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xBA Leaders
Dan Altavilla, Seattle Mariners
It's probably best to avoid the M's bullpen altogether. There might not be many saves to go around and it will be spread among several relievers. That said, many fantasy managers play in 16-team, AL-only leagues, or are simply desperate for saves wherever they can be found. It's not a promise that Altavilla will collect any, but he's part of a committee that could lead to some opportunities. Yoshi Hirano is on IL (undisclosed), so the door is open for whoever steps up. The competition is Matt Magill, who has all of five career saves, so there's a chance for Altavilla to assert himself.
He uses a straightforward fastball-slider combo to attack hitters. Both get good horizontal movement, but it's his velocity that is his main tool. The four-seamer averaged 96.6 MPH last year and had good spin too. As for Altavilla's Statcast profile, he had the fourth-lowest xBA among all pitchers who faced at least 50 batters and sixth-lowest xSLG. He's shown steady progress each year and could breakthrough given the chance.
Lucas Sims, Cincinnati Reds
Sims is another former Braves pitching prospect who was moved to make way for the new wave of arms. He made a couple of lackluster starts in 2019 before transitioning to the bullpen in Cincy with good results. His ERA has been rather unappealing; last year's 4.60 is the best yet and his career MLB ERA is 5.45. In strictly relief appearances, it lowers to 3.42.
courtesy of baseball-reference.com
Sims has all of 117 innings of experience and is just 26 years old, so it's only fair to see what he can do in his new role for the length of a (shortened) season. He may serve as a "follower" that piggybacks after starting pitchers, which means the likelihood of relief wins is higher than saves or even holds.
Yimi Garcia, Miami Marlins
Garcia is part of a bullpen overhaul by the Fish in an attempt to acquire relievers who actually find the strike zone. Garcia has a healthy 4.9% walk rate in his career but also manages to limit hard contact, with a 27.3% Hard% last year. His 2.85 ERA was also in the top 4% of the league.
Garcia's strikeout rate has fluctuated wildly in his tenure with the Dodgers but it was a solid 26.7% in 2019 when he saw his most extended Major League action. Strikeouts and solid ratios are the best hope for fantasy relevance in 2020, as he is currently behind Brandon Kintzler and Brad Boxberger (possibly Ryne Stanek too) in the pecking order for saves.
xSLG Leaders
Darwinzon Hernandez, Boston Red Sox
The lowest xSLG of 2019 belonged to Hernandez, who didn't allow a single barrel. It's a small sample, as he only completed 30 1/3 innings of work, but it's still impressive considering he faced the likes of the Yankees, Rays, and Twins multiple times. His repertoire isn't complicated - it's 75% fastball and 25% slider. Those two pitches work well together, seeing as how the fastball averages 95.5 MPH and the slider has superior vertical movement. He underachieved on his actual SLG allowed by .120, meaning that his ugly 1.75 WHIP should have been much better.
It looked as if Hernandez might be out a while due to COVID, but he was cleared a couple of days prior to Opening Day. He's currently on IL as of July 14 so that he can work his way back into shape, much like Eduardo Rodriguez. It may be another week or two before Hernandez is ready to take the mound but once he does, he could solidify a shaky pen and provide help to fantasy owners.
Tyler Rogers, San Francisco Giants
I saw what transpired on Opening Day, so rest assured I don't have blinders on while writing up this analysis. Rogers got lit up by the Dodgers to the tune of four earned runs in less than an inning of work in his 2020 debut. Not a great way to show that you deserve the ball in pressure situations. Still, it's just one outing against the best lineup in the National League, so let's proceed by assuming it won't happen again.
The twin brothers of Twins closer Taylor Rogers has the pedigree and the delivery to keep hitters off balance. Anyone who grew up watching Dan Quisenberry or Gene Garber knows what I mean.
Rogers mixes a sinker with a curve to keep hitters off balance. His 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, .180 xBA, and .233 xSLG would be considered outstanding if not for the fact he only faced 70 batters in his rookie year. His 90.1 MPH average exit velocity on fly balls/line drives is also encouraging and supported by a low HR rate throughout the minors of 0.35 HR/9.
Although he looks like a player to avoid based on his disastrous start to the season, he still has value in Holds leagues and will remain in consideration for late-inning work until Trevor Gott proves he can hold down the job.
Aaron Bummer, Chicago White Sox
Bummer's Statcast profile is full of red - the good kind. He posted a 1.5% Brls/PA rate, .200 xBA, and .274 xSLG in 2019.
The former Nebraska Cornhusker is presumably second in line for saves behind Alex Colome, which makes him a player to keep close tabs on in 5x5 leagues where multiple RP slots are required. He picked up his first hold of the year in a victory over the Twins and already has value wherever holds are counted.
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