Relief Pitchers Set to Break Out in 2020

We continue to wait on a start date for the 2020 MLB season. The extra time we have allows us to dig deeper into the player pool, looking for breakout players. We have seen the relief pitching position evolve over recent seasons, allowing for more and more draftable players. In this article, we will take a look at three late-round relief pitchers to target in your fantasy drafts. 

Last season, there was only one closer that saved over 40 games (Kirby Yates). Despite that, there were still some top-end closers as 11 posted 30 or more saves; there were 22 relievers with at least 20 saves; 37 relievers had at least 10 saves, and 52 relievers with at least five saves.

Seeing all the saves that can be had later in drafts is a great thing as it allows for some different draft strategies. You can go with our own, JB Branson’s Bullpen Method as one way to draft. You can even just load up on some “closers in waiting” later in drafts, especially in best-ball or draft champions formats. With a shortened season, there is a great chance we will see a lot of extra bullpen use. Not to mention the new minimum batter rule that may result in more save situations. There are so many ways to attack relief pitchers, so let’s take a look at three late-round targets that have major breakout potential.

Hunter Harvey, Baltimore Orioles (ADP 278)

The Orioles enter the 2020 season with a crowded back-end of their bullpen. According to Roster Resource, they will deploy a three-headed committee. Mychal Givens is likely the reliever that many will target as the O’s closer, as he has some previous experience closing games. Givens is solid and all, but the real target should be the 25-year-old Harvey.

Harvey is one of the Orioles’ top pitching prospects. He had his first taste of big-league action at the end of the 2019 season and was outstanding. It was a small sample of only 6.1 innings, but it resulted in a solid 1.42 ERA with a 42.3% K rate.

His short success in the bigs was encouraging after an up-and-down season between Double-A and Triple-A. His time in Triple-A was his first transition to a being full-time reliever and that continued with the Orioles.

Sure, the numbers with the Orioles are outstanding and likely not sustainable, but there is still reason for optimism. First, let’s look at his pitch mix:

Being a former starter, Harvey has three pitches that he likes to utilize. That can be optimal for a closer, as most closers tend to dominate with just two main pitches.

Harvey throws his fastball almost 70% of the time, while he throws his changeup and curveball each 15-16% of the time. When looking at the effectiveness of those pitches, there are some things that really stand out: His fastball averaged over 98 mph and carried a batting average against of only .118, with a 42% K rate and a 44.4% ground ball rate.

While the fastball was dominant, the changeup was just average. But the curveball was literally unhittable. The curve was only thrown 20 times, but had a 100% K rate and was never touched. If Harvey can continue to dominate with a hard fastball and a filthy curveball, then watch out.

Lastly, let’s look at the quality of contact that Harvey allowed. The stats show he was barreled over 9.1% of the time, but when looking at the xStats, his deserved barrels were only 2.6%; that’s quite a difference. A ground ball rate of 54.5% will play really well in Camden Yards, a park in which the ball flies out of easily.

These stats were a very small sample. We do however know the pedigree Harvey has and his talent may be ready to breakout. Being drafted at pick 278 in NFBC Draft Champions since March 15 is quite a value for a reliever that could take over the Orioles' closing role.

Yoshihisa Hirano, Seattle Mariners (ADP 381)

Similar to the Orioles, the Mariners have a potential closer battle on their hands. Many are targeting Matt Magill as the Mariners' closer, but the value lies in Hirano.

Hirano was signed by the Mariners in the offseason and will look to finally become the closer many thought he would be when the D-backs signed him from Japan in 2018. 

Hirano was a lights-out closer in Japan, collecting 143 saves over 272.1 innings from 2013-17. Over that stretch, he also had a 2.64 ERA and averaged over a strikeout per inning. He never settled into the closer’s role in the U.S. and was usually used as a late-inning fireman or setup man.

Over his two seasons with the D-backs, he posted four saves over his 137 appearances. His numbers dipped as well with a 3.47 ERA and a 4.11 xFIP. 

The biggest challenge for Hirano is properly utilizing his pitch mix. The stats say Hirano uses three pitches, but in reality, it's only two. He uses his fastball 48% of the time, his splitter 51.7% and his slider 0.3% of the time. I reached out to a few D-backs beat reporters about his slider usage and there was no clear reason for abandoning the pitch, besides possible lack of confidence.

When we dig into his pitch mix some more we can see the fastball and splitter success. Last season, his splitter was the major strikeout pitch with a whiff rate of almost 40% and a near 33% K rate. The splitter gets groundballs over 57% of the time and has a batting average against of only .203.

While the splitter was great, the fastball was up and down. The fastball had a strikeout rate of only 18.4% and a batting average against of .310. It hovers around 91 mph, so when it catches too much of the plate, it will get hit hard.

Hirano has the stuff to be a closer. The Mariners are a team in need of some leadership in the back end of their bullpen, which would be a perfect fit for Hirano. He was brought in on a one-year deal and they may want to showcase the right-hander as a closer to possibly trade later in the season. Going at pick 381 in NFBC DC allows for some major upside and saves. 

Tyler Rogers, San Francisco Giants (ADP 654)

Rogers, the brother of Twins closer Taylor Rogers, will get his time in 2020 to save games for the Giants. Rogers has shown the ability to close out games throughout the Giants' farm system, so the ability to finish games has already been established.

He made his MLB debut in 2019, throwing 17.2 innings. Over those innings, he had a ridiculous 1.02 ERA with a 2.87 xFIP. 

The thing many will mention and get attracted to regarding Rogers is his crazy sidearm delivery.

The delivery and a filthy sinker help Rogers get a ton of groundballs and keep him quite deceptive. He had a 70% groundball rate and a 22.5% K rate with the Giants. The delivery and the pitch mix has led to some serious success throughout Rogers career. He uses his sinker 58% of the time, while he uses his curveball 32.9% and his fastball 9%. He’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher, and it works with that delivery. 

His sinker allows a batting average against of .257 and a wild ground ball rate of 77.8%. Getting groundballs at rates like that will allow for a few extra hits, for a higher average than most. The sinker can allow a few extra hits when the xwOBAcon against is only .250 and a 0% barrel against.

The curveball has been just as good and is used as Rogers’s strikeout pitch. The curve has a CSW of 40% and a batting average against of .083. 

Rogers gave up 0 barrels last season, which is vital in this era of the home run. He will get a solid shot to close some games with the Giants as new manager Gabe Kapler likes to play matchups quite a bit. The new minimum batter rule will also allow Rogers to get some save chances in a platoon with Tony Watson. Rogers is free in drafts and can rack up some saves, or at worst, get you some great ratios if you are building a Franken-Ace a la JB's Bullpen Method!

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