Riley Greene: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

The big-time prospects keep coming up from the minor leagues with 21-year-old Riley Greene surfacing for the Detroit Tigers. Greene was originally slated to break camp with the club but a broken right foot in Spring Training delayed his debut. Still, he singled in his first PA and currently has a BB% above 40 at the MLB level.

The early success makes his prospect pedigree all the more exciting. Entering the season as the #2 prospect in all of baseball per MLB Pipeline, Greene was selected fifth overall in the 2019 Amateur Draft and has generally produced at every level. Scouts also love everything from his mature plate approach to a swing that is simultaneously "fluid" and "violent."

Greene's debut and prospect pedigree have been strong, but you shouldn't try and determine what he could do for your fantasy squad based on that alone. Let's take a deeper look at what we should expect from Greene:

The Scouting Consensus on Riley Greene

Many prospects have some sort of question to answer in the batter's box, but Greene doesn't. MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs both give Greene a 60-hit tool, though FanGraphs thinks that he might need to grow into it with a current grade of 45. Similarly, MLB Pipeline sees 60-grade power while FanGraphs sees 55 raw power and 45 game power today but expects both to reach 60 in the future. We are likely looking at a .280+ hitter with 30+ HR power in his prime.

Greene is capable of fielding all three outfield spots defensively, but the most interesting part of his scouting report is his speed. MLB Pipeline assigns him 50 speed while FanGraphs has him at a below-average 40 both now and in the future. You may have heard that Greene offers SBs, so the middling or worse speed might take you by surprise.

Riley Greene Decimates MiLB Pitching

Like all minor leaguers, Greene lost a full season of development when the 2020 minor league season was canceled. He seemed intent on making up for the lost time in 2021, slashing an excellent .298/.381/.525 with 16 HR and 12 steals over 373 PAs for Double-A (Erie). He struck out too often with a 27.3% clip, but also displayed a feel for the zone with an 11 BB%. A 26.7 LD% helped inflate his BABIP to .386 while his 23.5% HR/FB indicated plus raw power that he wasn't fully realizing with a 30.2 FB%.

The strong performance earned Greene a crack at Triple-A (Toledo) where he did more of the same, slashing .308/.400/.553 with eight homers and four steals over 185 PAs. His plate discipline metrics were virtually unchanged at 11.9 BB% and 27.6 K%, though his SwStr% increased from 11.7 to 13. He again posted an elevated 23.8 LD% that contributed to an inflated .406 BABIP, while his 26.7% HR/FB suggested serious upside if Greene could improve his 28.6 FB%.

Greene returned to Toledo to begin the 2022 campaign but his numbers fell off a cliff: .274/.338/.387 with a homer and three steals over 68 PAs. He cut his SwStr% to 9.5% and his K% to 20.6%, but it came at the expense of his power (17 FB%, 12.5% HR/FB) and his 8.8 BB%. Since he was coming back from injury, this stint was likely glorified Spring Training as he prepared for his MLB debut.

As such, we should focus on his 2021 campaign in determining what type of player Greene is. Erie is a hitter's haven with a 149 HR factor and 106 hits factor from 2017 to 2019, casting some doubt as to whether Greene deserved his excellent numbers there. However, Toledo is the exact opposite with a 78 HR factor and 99 hits factor and Greene put up nearly identical statistics there on a rate basis. The performance looks real, especially since he was young for the level.

Greene was caught stealing once at Double-A and never in Triple-A. This fact, combined with his relatively low number of SB attempts, suggests that he steals bases with his head and instincts rather than raw foot speed. That means that he won't steal 30+ at the big league level but should be good for 10-15 over a full season.

The Final Verdict on Riley Greene

Detroit hit Greene in the 5th spot in his second major league game, suggesting that they plan to aggressively let him work his way into an important role in the batting order. The Tigers stink, but the expanded opportunities in the middle of the lineup should boost Greene's counting stat potential. As a high-efficiency base thief on a weak club, he should also have a green light whenever he wants it.

Greene knows how to work a walk and has already flashed that skill with the Tigers, giving him added appeal in OBP formats. The biggest obstacles to his immediate success will be his inflated K% and low FB%, with the former determining his batting average while the latter dictates his HR total. This author expects some of Greene's liners on the farm to turn into flies in the Show, boosting his power numbers at the expense of his BABIP.

That might make him a batting average risk, but ZiPS projects him for a solid .269/.339/.465 line with 11 homers and five steals over 265 PAs. Considering the upside for more, Greene should be rostered in far more than 54% of Yahoo! leagues and is, therefore, a Champ.

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