Evaluating Rookie Performances - Week 5

The Phillies were the big headline-stealers in the prospect game this past week, calling up both their top pitching prospect, Spencer Howard, and their top overall prospect, infielder Alec Bohm.

But they weren’t the only NL East team with significant rookie developments this past week. The Marlins and Mets have some interesting rookies to watch going forward as well.

Read further to see how interested you should be in this week’s NL East-heavy rookie watch…

Spencer Howard (SP, PHI)

The most exciting pitching prospect in the city of brotherly love didn’t have the most inspiring MLB debut this past weekend against a tough Atlanta Braves lineup. Howard allowed seven hits, a walk and four earned runs over 4 2/3 innings. He was tagged for two home runs in the game and struck out four.

On the bright side, he threw four different pitches in the game, and each had something significant to like about it. He led with his mid-90s four-seamer, which had some significant movement, both vertically and horizontally. Then he threw a slider and changeup about 20% of the time each. The slider induced a whiff rate of 53.8% while the changeup registered an xWOBA of just .273 and an xSLG of just .396. He only threw his fourth pitch, his curveball, five times in the start, but it was extremely nasty. It averaged a vertical drop of 72.4 inches, which is 9.2 inches more than league average.

Here’s a quick look at that beauty of a pitch:

Spencer Howard, 74 mph curveball pic.twitter.com/sozfdbD3Wy

— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) August 9, 2020

Another positive from Howard’s debut is that the Phillies weren’t especially restricting on him, allowing him to throw 81 pitches despite some of his struggles. The third inning was where the Braves did their first damage, with three hits including a two-run home run by Freddie Freeman. Howard then faced the bottom of the order in the fourth inning and cruised through it. A lot of rookies would have been pulled after that, with the top of the order coming up. Howard was tagged with a Ronald Acuna Jr. home run to lead off that fifth inning – which of course gives credence to the philosophy of pulling young pitchers earlier – but the fact that manager Joe Girardi gave Howard a longer leash is encouraging for future usage.

Howard had elite production in the minor leagues last year. Over 71 innings across multiple levels, he posted a 2.03 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with 11.9 K/9. Simply put, the makings of a future ace are certainly there.

Howard’s biggest obstacle in the short-term is finding a secure rotation spot. Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin are the clear top four in the Phillies rotation and Vince Velasquez has the experience and an adequate enough track record to seemingly give him the leg up on the fifth rotation spot.

Howard’s currently rostered in about 20% of fantasy leagues. If there’s any indication that he’ll become a regular in the team’s rotation, that number will need to shoot all the way up. Deep league owners would be wise to beat the rush and add him now to – at the very minimum – stow him on your bench. In more shallow leagues, you can have a bit more of a wait-and-see approach.

Alec Bohm (3B, PHI)

Alec Bohm made his MLB debut on Thursday, going 1-for-4 with a double against Baltimore. He started at third base in the game and hit sixth in the lineup.

Bohm has a fantastic prospect profile with a great mix of plate discipline and power. Last year, over 125 games spread across Double-A, High-A and Single-A, he slashed .305/.378/.518 with 21 home runs, 80 RBI, 57 walks and just 73 strikeouts. If he can replicate those types of numbers in the big leagues, he could develop an extremely valuable, diversified profile somewhat similar to a Jose Ramirez type.

However, the road to immediate playing time is a bit unclear. Jean Segura has been the team’s primary third baseman this year. While there’s some speculation that Bohm could cover first base, he was primarily used as a third baseman in the minors. In Bohm’s first major league start, Segura shifted to second base while regular second baseman Scott Kingery was left out of the lineup.

Kingery could shift to a utility type of position and for now, that’s probably the only hope Bohm has in finding regular playing time. Despite the early-season struggles of first baseman Rhys Hoskins, the track record of the slugging first baseman is too strong to suggest he’ll lose his everyday job easily.

Bohm is currently rostered in about 30% of fantasy leagues. If you have an empty spot to fill, or someone who is very drop-worthy, Bohm is a great high-upside talent to take a shot on. He’s most attractive – at least in the short-term – in deep, daily-lock leagues as his playing time is uncertain.

Andres Gimenez (SS, NYM)

No doubt one of the best surprises this year for the New York Mets has been the exceptional play of shortstop Andres Gimenez.

Through 19 games, Gimenez is slashing .286/.327/.388 with five stolen bases, a double, two triples and seven runs. He’s yet to go yard on the season, but he did show a little pop in the minor leagues as he hit nine home runs over 117 games at Double-A last year. Plus, he’s just 21 years old and has a good chance of developing more of a power profile in the coming years.

Gimenez began seeing extended playing time at second base following an injury to Robinson Cano (abductor strain). He shifted to shortstop earlier this week while Amed Rosario was dealing with a stomach bug. Unfortunately for Gimenez, both Cano and Rosario should be back very soon, especially Rosario. Once both players return, Gimenez might find himself in more of a utility role.

Keep an eye on Gimenez’s playing time once the team is healthy. They could find a way to get him into the lineup most days with creative use of their designated hitter position, which was primarily held down by Yoenis Cespedes before he opted out of the season. Lately, it’s been Dominic Smith who has typically been used there.

Gimenez’s best asset should be his stolen bases. He stole a total of 66 bases the past two years in the minors and could be a difference-maker in the stat if he earns that regular playing time.

Matt Foster (P, CWS)

Chicago White Sox pitcher Matt Foster’s first few weeks in the majors couldn’t have gone any better. He earned a win in his MLB debut on August 1, pitching a scoreless fifth inning, and all he’s done since is pitch another 6 2/3 scoreless innings since.

But that’s just the beginning of the story.

Foster hasn’t just thrown 7 2/3 scoreless innings, they’ve been completely dominant ones. He’s struck out 13 of the 26 batters he’s faced, giving him a strikeout rate of exactly 50%, which ranks amongst the top 1% of the league. He’s allowed only two hits and his hard-hit rate against is just 18.2%.

Foster proved to be a strikeout extraordinaire in the minor leagues. He posted a 10.3 K/9 in 43 innings at Double-A and Triple-A last year. He backed up the strikeouts with a sturdy 3.20 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

This past Saturday, Foster made his first start at any level as he opened up a bullpen game for the White Sox. He pitched two innings and allowed only one base runner through a walk.

Foster leads with a mid-90s four-seamer that has significant movement to it, averaging 12.8 inches of vertical drop, 2.6 inches over league average. He supports the four-seamer with a dominant changeup that has induced a 50% whiff rate so far this year.

There are multiple fantasy formats where Foster could become of value this year. He should be on the radar of anyone in deep leagues who needs help in ratios, primarily K/9 or strikeout percentage. He could also develop into a reliable source of holds. If he keeps rolling, the team will most certainly be going to him in high leverage setup situations. Last, if he indeed develops a trend of starting bullpen games for the Sox, he could earn SP eligibility and he could also be a valuable asset in leagues that require start minimums.

Humberto Mejia (SP, MIA)

Miami Marlins pitcher Humberto Mejia made his major league debut last weekend and though it was short, he showed some promising signs, suggesting he could be in line for additional starts soon, even though he was sent to the team’s alternate site shortly after his debut.

Mejia pitched 2 1/3 innings against the New York Mets last Friday and allowed two hits, two walks and a run. However, it was his six strikeouts that really stood out.

Here’s a look at one of those six strikeouts as he completely fools Amed Rosario:

Before today Humberto Mejía had not pitched above Single-A.
Tonight he struck out 6 in his debut. pic.twitter.com/nXYGM0rl2W

— MLB (@MLB) August 8, 2020

Mejia’s mid-90s four-seamer, which he threw 62.7% of the time in his start, induced a whiff rate of 33.3% and averaged 12.8 inches of vertical drop. He supported the four-seamer with his curveball (20.9% of his pitches), slider (11.9%) and changeup (4.5%).

There’s a lot to like about Mejia’s minor league track record, not just his strikeouts. Last year, split between Single-A and High-A, he threw 90 1/3 innings and posted a 2.09 ERA and 0.897 WHIP. 14 of his 18 appearances were starts, including a complete game.

Despite Mejia being sent to the Marlins’ alternate site this past week, we all know that the Marlins roster is likely to fluctuate greatly throughout the year. Three of the team’s primary starters, Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Jose Urena, are all currently on the Injured List due to positive COVID-19 tests.

Right now, Mejia appears to be seventh in the pecking order for the team’s rotation, behind the above-mentioned three as well as currently-active pitchers Pablo Lopez, Jordan Yamamoto and Elieser Hernandez.

Dynasty league owners looking for a promising pitching prospect who could also have short-term value should keep a close eye on Mejia.

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